NBA Season Preview 2018-19: Will chaos be a ladder for the Heat?

With a nearly identical roster and a cramped cap sheet, will the Heat be able to land the star talent that they so covet during the upcoming season?

The NBA has turned upside down over the past two seasons with the constant relocation of star players causing seismic shifts in the league’s power structure. While many teams have transformed entirely, the Miami Heat represent one of the league’s more stable, known commodities. When the Heat missed out on Gordon Hayward back in the summer of 2017, they committed long-term money to James Johnson, Dion Waiters, Josh Richardson and Kelly Olynyk. Pat Riley and the Heat front office thus opted to bring back the magical group of misfits that stole the hearts of NBA nerds everywhere during the 2017 season.

With the benefit of hindsight, the decision to dish out so many long-term deals seems questionable. Last year, the Heat largely failed to recapture the mystique of their ridiculous run in the second half of the 2017 season. This team had a much more ordinary aura about it in 2018. Throughout the season the Heat consistently play rock-solid defense, competing relentlessly, grinding games out and often undergoing prolonged bouts of offensive stagnancy. That style of play was a recipe for 44 wins and a convincing loss to the neophyte Sixers in the playoffs.

Miami has essentially assembled a deep roster full of solid but unspectacular players; great complementary pieces that lack star potential. The Heat might not have the talent to make a deep playoff run, but they should make the playoffs in the East as currently constituted. Barring a serious injury to Goran Dragic, who bears a huge creative burden for this squad, the Heat should compete for the 5-8 seeds.

Miami is paying a heavy price for the continuity it has established though. The Heat are currently sitting in tax territory. If Miami doesn’t duck the tax line before next July, ownership would be doling out an enormous sum of money for a sixth seed that got bounced in round one last season. And so we arrive at our main issue. Is management really willing to swallow a tax bill for a team that doesn’t really have the upside to approach 50 wins? Perhaps Pat Riley is content with battling for low-end playoff spots with this loveable bunch of gritty veterans. But living in the NBA’s middle class hasn’t exactly been Riley’s modus operandi over the years.  The Heat are in danger of entering NBA purgatory with no easy path out. Consequently, Miami is itching to add a star that can carry this franchise forward as Dwyane Wade finishes off his last NBA rodeo.

With lots of hefty contracts on the books and few attractive trade assets, landing a star will be difficult. To secure a new franchise cornerstone and climb out of the potential dog days ahead, the Heat will have to throw continuity by the wayside and embrace the chaos of the modern NBA. As the start of the season looms, they appear to be doing just that. Miami emerged as an active suitor early in the Jimmy Butler trade saga according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Marc Stein indicated last week that the Heat are “Butler’s preferred trade destination.”  Initial talks proved fruitless though, with Tom Thibodeau allegedly demanding the sun and stars for the embattled Minnesota guard.

Reporting by Zach Lowe and Woj suggested that Miami would even take the Gorgui Dieng albatross off Minnesota’s hands if necessary. So much for fiscal responsibility! If Minnesota is dead set on offloading Dieng, a third will probably be necessary to facilitate a financially feasible deal. And of course, three or four team negotiations always complicate matters further.

As  negotiations have progressed, we’ve gotten a much clearer sense of just how much Miami is willing to risk to raise the ceiling of this team moving forward. The most enticing trade chips on the Heat roster are Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow and Bam Adebayo. Miami also can also deal its 2019 or 2023 first-round picks. The Heat have, at the very least, demonstrated a willingness to throw Richardson into a potential deal. Over the weekend a trade package centered around Richardson seemed like it might work out, only to collapse on Saturday night. How many more Miami’s assets will Minnesota demand (right now, seemingly all of them!) and how many would the Heat be willing to part ways with given the fact that Butler is on an expiring deal? Despite indications that he would re-sign in Miami, the Heat must anticipate and weigh for every possible outcome.

The coming weeks and months will play a vital role in determining the long-term course of this franchise. Will Miami stand pat and make moves on the fringes? Or will Pat Riley and the front office attempt to climb the ladder of NBA chaos, risking everything for a shot at turning the Heat into a contender? Given what we know about Riley, a major shakeup might be in the making.