No matter what happens with Jimmy Butler, the Minnesota Timberwolves’ future is tied to the progress of Karl-Anthony Towns.
Shortly after the 2015 NBA Draft, one thing became clear for the Minnesota Timberwolves: They had their franchise player locked in.
Karl-Anthony Towns averaged a dominant 20.6 points and 11.8 rebounds per 36 minutes during his rookie season, then exceeded his own baseline the next year. By last season, Towns was the most productive part of a playoff team, helping to lead the Timberwolves to a 47-35 record and the eighth seed in the Western Conference. He put up 18 points and 16 rebounds in Minnesota’s one playoff win over the Rockets.
The team’s front office, including President Tom Thibodeau, general manager Scott Layden and Owner Glen Taylor, responded with a five-year, $190 million contract extension. But a lot happened between that playoff series and the extension.
Thibodeau’s biggest acquisition as president, the guy to whom he staked his reputation and longevity, spent the offseason thinking. Jimmy Butler decided he didn’t want to be a part of the Minnesota franchise any longer. The All-NBA player whom the Timberwolves threw out a three-player package to get was done.
And that’s a huge thing for the Timberwolves, Towns’ progress notwithstanding. The team’s net rating was 10 points better with Butler on the floor last season, and he put up the most efficient offensive season of his career.
Butler has left the Timberwolves in an impossible stalemate. They can play hardball with Butler and potentially up their negotiating leverage, which could frustrate the players who went through all of training camp without the disgruntled forward. Or, they can press for a trade and likely get poor value in return.
Much depends on the outcome of these negotiations: Keeping Towns happy, putting a roster together that fits with his talents, and manufacturing flexibility to improve the team going forward. There’s also the underlying and widely reported assumption that Thibodeau’s job depends on making the playoffs again.
In many ways, the franchise is in exactly the same spot as it was after the 2016-17 season. Towns is locked in as the franchise player, there are some interesting pieces around him (albeit less than in 2017), and a win-now mandate that will only be satisfied by Towns’ progress. It just took a roundabout path to get back here, and a whole lot more money devoted to Towns and fellow high lottery pick Andrew Wiggins.
The current parameters of a Minnesota deal, with Miami as the front-runner would see the Timberwolves clearing nearly $24 million in 2019-20 salary while upgrading their young talent. That would be helpful, but no one deal can cure all of what ails Minnesota.
Nothing in the NBA happens in an instant. It’s been four years since the Timberwolves drafted Towns, and they’re still poking and prodding the roster to create a winner around him. But the slow-burn of a rebuild has singed Minnesota for over a decade. Progress needs to come now.
It would be nice to see Wiggins become a more efficient player, or for someone like third-year point guard Tyus Jones to show a burst of improvement, but the onus is on one guy. If we see the Towns who was passive and unable to take over games in the flow of Thibodeau’s offense during the playoffs this year, it’s unlikely Minnesota returns to the postseason. But if Towns can summon a new level of two-play from his seemingly bottomless toolbox, the Butler detour could become nothing more than a footnote in the lore of Towns years from now.