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NBA Season Preview 2018-19: John Collins is the vertical spacer to Atlanta’s shooting

By Jackson Frank

ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 10: John Collins #20 of the Atlanta Hawks makes his entrance before the game against the Philadelphia 76ers on April 10, 2018 at Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Kevin Liles/NBAE via Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 10: John Collins #20 of the Atlanta Hawks makes his entrance before the game against the Philadelphia 76ers on April 10, 2018 at Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Kevin Liles/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The Atlanta Hawks haven’t been shy about their rebuilding vision, attempting to emulate the Golden State Warriors’ brand of basketball.

General Manager Travis Schlenk is a Bay Area disciple, having served with the team in various capacities from 2004-2017. Atlanta’s fifth overall pick from this summer’s draft, Trae Young, has drawn parallels to Stephen Curry for his galactic range and quick trigger. With textbook shooting mechanics, Kevin Huerter, the 19th overall pick, invokes comparisons to Klay Thompson — though Huerter’s added playmaking skills and lack of defensive chops halt that juxtaposition. The 31st overall pick, Omari Spellman, while no Draymond Green, connected on 43.3 percent of his 150 triples last season at Villanova.

Schlenk has this to say to NBATV’s Kristen Ledlow in a draft night interview.

"“When you look at the way the game is moving in the NBA, you’ve got to be able to space the floor and all three of these guys can shoot the ball from the perimeter. All three guys can put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. And a couple of the guys, Trae and Kevin, can really create for other guys. So, we’re really pleased with how it played out.”"

It’s clear Schlenk intends to fashion basketball utopia in Atlanta with a herd of shooting and playmaking, paying homage to his former employer. Yet where the two tracks diverge is in second-year big man John Collins, the type of vertical spacer Golden State has never rostered.

As a rookie, Collins proved to be one of the many post-lottery gems, averaging 10.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.1 blocks on .576/.340/.715 shooting splits en route to a berth on the All-Rookie 2nd Team.

He was plastered across the airwaves with some highlight-reel dunks throughout the year but rarely did he pop in-game, simply blending into the flow of the action and finding creases to deliver at the rim.

Playing alongside a shoot-first, second and third point guard in Dennis Schröeder, who struggles to make advanced reads through his scoring lens, didn’t do Collins any favors. Despite the limited complementary facilitators around him — Taurean Prince and Kent Bazemore both had feature ball-handling roles — Collins still ranked in the 62nd percentile (1.13 points per possession) as a roll man in the pick-and-roll.

Optimizing  soft hands, feathery touch — he shot 69 percent at the rim, 68th percentile among all bigs — and a hyper-athletic frame, Collins prevailed in the face of non-ideal circumstances, whirling off screens like a defensive end against an overmatched offensive lineman:

While both Prince and Bazemore took leaps as passers last season, neither holds a candle to Young, whose playmaking acumen is the primary reason he sheds the Jimmer Fredette label as more than just a pure shooter. Young was prone to forcing plays at Oklahoma but as a rookie, those mistakes will be encouraged. Atlanta isn’t going to be good either way and Young should have a long leash, enabling him to play through the growing pains.

That sizable margin of error bodes well for Collins, who will get lengthy run next to Young as the Hawks experiment with the profitability of their cornerstone duo. Young was a pick-and-roll savant in college, yielding 0.88 points per possession (76th percentile), and it’s his versatility as an initiator that helps set him apart from Schröeder, Prince and Bazemore. In college, he manipulated defenses in the pick-and-roll, rising up from well beyond the arc, zipping into the lane or leveraging his shooting stroke to carve out passing lanes.

It isn’t just Young’s magnetism that should stretch the floor and open up the offense. According to The Basketball Index, Collins’ boasted an “A” roll gravity and was in the 99th percentile among all power forwards with at least 1,500 minutes last season. When he dives to the rim and lures defenders into the paint, Young can pounce on those lapses and sling passes to the bevy of shooting wings or cutters:

With the shifty, lightning-quick Schröeder at the helm last season, the Hawks ranked eighth in the NBA in pace (100.60), which enabled Collins to flank on the wings and beam down the floor for buckets as he finished in the 90th percentile in transition efficiency (1.36 PPP) — albeit on just 67 possessions.

Expect more quick-hitting opportunities for Collins next to Young, given the rookie’s propensity for driving an up-tempo charge — transition offense composed 20.9 percent of his usage at Oklahoma — and ability to create scoring chances in the open floor.

Beyond the translation of his shooting to the league, perhaps the most important development in Young’s game will be his performance in self-creation scenarios. Beating his defender off the dribble in college rarely seemed to be an issue but in Summer League, he struggled at times to manufacture space or get into the lane. If he’s regularly confined to the perimeter and unable to collapse defenses, Collins’ and the Hawks’ long-term offensive potential have a clear ceiling as Young holds the key to jolting opponents off-kilter and puncturing them with savvy passing.

It might not be completely on Young’s shoulders, though. During this year’s Summer League — I know, I know, attach the asterisk if you must — Collins flashed the means for generating his own buckets, hinting at go-to scoring potential from the elbows and perimeter, skills often elusive for 4s and 5s.

Even better, he launched 10 3s in his only two Las Vegas Summer League games — nine more than the one he shot during five 2017 Summer League contests — and connected on five of them. He wasn’t shy about it either, rifling looks from above the break — 35 of his 47 attempts were from the corners as a rookie — amidst moderate defensive coverage. It signaled a continuation of his post-All-Star break habits when he was 10 of 28 (35.7 percent) beyond the arc in just 21 games, a sharp increase from the 19 he hoisted in 53 games before the break.

If Collins carries over those shooting patterns into the regular season, he’ll slowly become a traditional floor-spacer in addition to the vertical spacing identity he’s already crafted. It’ll embed another dynamic into Atlanta’s offense as Collins provides off-ball scoring equity beyond the occasional dump-off or putback slam.

When Schlenk and Co. pulled the trigger on shipping Luka Doncic to Dallas back in June, they made a calculated gamble and placed the future of the franchise, along with their reputations and livelihoods, on Young’s shoulders.

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Young is going to lead the Hawks as far as he can take them but Collins will be right there next to him, acting as the central distinguishing factor between Atlanta and the modern-day Warriors (aside from on-court success, of course). Schlenk has preached offensive versatility throughout his brief tenure and with Collins, he has a multifaceted youngster who can’t be molded into a Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson or Draymond Green-sized box.