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Fantasy Football: Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 6

By Matt McGarvey

CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 30: Quarterback Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers warms up prior to the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on September 30, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 30: Quarterback Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers warms up prior to the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on September 30, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /
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Fantasy Football: Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 6

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate prediction, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story. Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.
*Funnel Defense refers to a noticeable difference in DVOA between pass defense and rush defense.

Pass Funnel Defenses:

CAR (Pass: 27th, Run: 11th), NO (Pass: 32nd, Run: 1st), SF (Pass: 23rd, Run: 10th), DAL (Pass: 24th, Run: 4th), HOU (Pass: 25th, Run: 2nd)

Run Funnel Defenses: 

KC (Pass: 19th, Run: 32nd), WAS (Pass 10th, Run: 30th), GB (Pass: 11th, Run: 27th), LARM (Pass: 9th, Run: 28th),

Overall Inefficient Defenses:

TB (32nd), ATL (31st), DET (30th), OAK (29th), KC (28th)

Tampa Bay ranks 32nd in defensive efficiency

Quite frankly, this is a pretty ugly slate from a DFS perspective. However, one of the intriguing matchups comes from the Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta game. Tampa ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, and Atlanta should be able to exploit this, as they rank 11th in offensive efficiency. After their opening night struggles, the Atlanta offense found their stride, scoring an average of 30.25 points over their last four games. In addition to the obvious matchup advantages, this is one of the few games that should be up in pace. Atlanta ranks 15th in Sec/Play (situation neutral) and Tampa Bay ranks 3rd in Sec/Play (situation neutral).

Atlanta ranks 31st in defensive efficiency

While the Tampa Bay offense looked abysmal last week, it was to be somewhat expected, as they faced a Chicago defense that ranks first overall in defensive efficiency. They’ll have a much easier matchup this weekend as they face the Atlanta defense that ranks 31st in defensive efficiency. Not only should the Bucs see improvement with the addition of Jameis Winston, but they’ll face the Atlanta defense without the help of Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, Grady Jarrett, and Ricardo Allen. The Tampa Bay offense ranks 5th in explosive pass rate (SharpFootballStats.com) and I would expect that to continue with the aggressiveness of Jameis Winston.

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