DraftKings Late CFB picks October 13: Look out for the UCLA offense

LINCOLN, NE – SEPTEMBER 29: Wide receiver JD Spielman #10 of the Nebraska Cornhuskers tosses a penalty flay back to an official after a call in the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Memorial Stadium on September 29, 2018 in Lincoln, Nebraska. (Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Late CFB picks October 13: Look out for the UCLA offense

DraftKings selected seven prime time games to pick from for our evening tournament. We have the explosive Alabama offense, the stifling Virginia defense, the awful Razorbacks, and everything in between. Let’s dive right in!

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My game stack of Jonathan Taylor with Nebraska’s Adrian Martinez and J.D. Spielman paid off big time. Unfortunately, Taylor is playing one of the best run defenses in the country, and Nebraska isn’t one of the selected games this weekend.

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TUSCALOOSA, AL – SEPTEMBER 29: Tua Tagovailoa #13 of the Alabama Crimson Tide looks to pass against the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Bryant-Denny Stadium on September 29, 2018 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Tua Tagovailoa ($10,800): There is a lot to dislike about the upper tier of quarterbacks. A ball hawking Kansas defense turned Grier over four times last week. Iowa State’s defense is built much the same way. Tua has been battling a sore ankle, and we all know how good his backup is. However, Nick Saban said that Tua had taken all the first team snaps, so he should be good to go. That’s great news against a Missouri defense that is allowing 285 passing yards per game this year.

Jordan Ta’amu ($9,900): Ole Miss just racked up 70 points on a Monroe team that isn’t much worse than Arkansas. The Razorbacks are allowing more than 400 yards of total offense per game, and this Ole Miss offense has been explosive against everyone not named Alabama. Ta’amu probably has the highest floor of any of the top tier, but his ceiling isn’t what Grier’s or Tua’s is.

Middle Tier:

Brandon McIlwain ($8,400): I’m a little more nervous about this after seeing how well UCLA handled Jake Browning last weekend. The UCLA defense is getting better. However, Cal has a legitimate weapon in McIlwain. He has 64.72 DraftKings points in his two starts against Arizona and Oregon. McIlwain has kept Cal in games with his arm and his legs. The fact that McIlwain has rushed for at least 100 yards in both of his starts gives him a great floor, and makes him a cash game staple. He also has the upside you want for GPP usage.

Ryan Willis ($7,900): The secret is out about the Kansas transfer now that he has back to back 300 yard games against good defenses in Duke and Notre Dame. North Carolina is allowing a lot of yards and a ton of points this year. Willis probably has the best matchup of anyone outside of Ta’amu, and should be in for a huge game here.

Bargain Shoppers:

Ty Storey ($6,700): Storey had his best game against top ranked Alabama last week, so there is optimism that he can keep it up against an Ole Miss defense that has been gouged at times. Mississippi is allowing 307.8 passing yards per game and 35.5 points per game. The Arkansas offense is improving, but the price on Storey reflects that. There is still a risk that Storey comes up short like he has at times this year.

Brock Purdy ($5,700): West Virginia’s defense is pretty good, so don’t expect a repeat of Purdy’s coming out party against the Cowboys in Stillwater. However, the Mountaineers are still allowing 211.4 passing yards per game. The Cyclone offense was dynamic with Purdy behind center. There is significant upside here in this price range.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($5,000): A young UCLA team has taken its lumps everywhere, but DTR had the best game of his young career against a strong Washington defense, racking up 19.28 DraftKings points. DTR threw for 272 yards against Washington in nearly upsetting the Huskies. Cal’s defense hasn’t been terrible, but it’s not as good as Washington’s either. I see a lot of potential with DTR here, especially at this low of a price.

BERKELEY, CA – SEPTEMBER 01: Patrick Laird #28 of the California Golden Bears dives past Jonathan Smith #7 of the North Carolina Tar Heels for a touchdown at California Memorial Stadium on September 1, 2018 in Berkeley, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Patrick Laird ($8,000): Laird’s output has been diminished because of huge rushing games from McIlwain lately, but Cal uses Laird as a receiver out of the backfield as well. UCLA has allowed 185.8 rushing yards per game this year, so even if McIlwain runs a lot, there is plenty to go around for Laird. I trust him more than Jonathan Taylor against that Michigan defense, that’s for sure.

Scottie Phillips ($7,300): Phillips has found the end zone ten times already in six games for Mississippi. Arkansas’ run defense has been pretty good, but Phillips catches enough passes out of the backfield to give him a solid floor for the price. Phillips is going to get his in this game at some point, making him one of the more reliable options out there.

Middle Tier:

Steven Peoples ($5,900): Virginia Tech still uses a couple of different backs, but Peoples has been the most productive one. The Tarheels are allowing 209.3 rushing yards per game, so the Hokies are going to run more than usual here. Peoples will get first crack at this porous North Carolina defense, and I like his upside for the price even if he does end up splitting carries again. I’m not opposed to using DeShaw McClease as well as Peoples here.

Rakeem Boyd ($5,800): I was completely off of the Arkansas offense last week against Bama, but those who took a shot on Boyd were handsomely rewarded. Boyd cracked the century mark against Alabama, and though he has yet to score a touchdown, Boyd has three straight games of at least 12 DraftKings points. That’s pretty good for this price range. I’d be willing to bet he finds the end zone against Ole Miss. I would think Boyd still gets quite a few carries even if Whaley returns.

Bargain Shoppers:

Joshua Kelley ($5,100): DTR is a very important piece of the UCLA offense, but they wouldn’t be as effective without Kelley emerging as a reliable backfield option. Kelley has 249 rushing yards over the last two games, and is going to find plenty of room against Cal in what could end up being a pretty high scoring game. I love Kelley for the price here.

Leddie Brown ($4,500): Brown hasn’t quite supplanted Kennedy McKoy in the backfield yet, but he has to be close. McKoy was handled by Kansas, but it was Brown picking up the chunks of yardage and scoring the touchdown. If you want to use a WVU back, it should be Brown.

OXFORD, MS – SEPTEMBER 15: Jerry Jeudy #4 of the Alabama Crimson Tide runs with the ball as Montrell Custis #2 of the Mississippi Rebels defends during the first half at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on September 15, 2018 in Oxford, Mississippi. Jeudy was ruled out of bounds before crossing the goal line. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

A.J. Brown ($9,100): Brown is the target hog on this Ole Miss offense, and is going to flirt with double digit catches again. Brown has 44 catches in six games and is averaging 98 receiving yards per game. The only thing that makes me pause a little is that Ole Miss may decide to run more in this game. It shouldn’t matter though. Brown will get his against this terrible defense.

Jerry Jeudy ($7,500): I like the price drop on Jeudy compared to Brown. On one hand, I get it since Bama has so many weapons. On the other hand, Jeudy has eight touchdowns in six games, and is averaging nearly 25 yards per catch. Let that sink in while you click the green DRAFT PLAYER button.

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Middle Tier:

Damon Hazelton ($7,300): Gone are our days of picking up Hazelton as a value play. Hazelton has 457 receiving yards in the last four game, and caught a staggering 12 passes last game. He is easily the favorite target of Ryan Willis, and it isn’t even close. Hazelton is going to be a huge part of the offense here so long as Willis is the quarterback.

Hakeem Butler ($6,200): Butler may have the best hands of anyone in college football. He catches anything in his zip code, often with just one hand. The human highlight reel benefitted from having Purdy back there last game, and will here as the Cyclones try to pull another monster upset.

DeMarkus Lodge ($6,000): Lodge is the big play guy in this Ole Miss receiving corps, so you are banking on him breaking one if you use him. Only Bama and LSU have stopped Lodge from ripping off a big play. Don’t get me wrong. I love the WVU receivers too, but they have no value plays, and you really have no clue who is going to go off. Ole Miss has a better matchup, and their receivers have more defined roles.

Bargain Shoppers:

Theo Howard ($5,500): Howard was the favorite target of DTR in the first game that UCLA has actually moved the ball with any kind of consistency. Howard didn’t rack up a ton of yards, but he definitely had the targets. Something can be said for being a possession receiver in a PPR scoring format like DraftKings. Especially when you get a lot of targets at this low of a price.

Albert Okwuegbunam ($3,800): With Emmanuel Hall still out, this Missouri offense has slowed considerably. It has also caused Drew Lock to look to Albert O an awful lot. He has 18 catches in three games with Hall out. That alone is worth six DraftKings points per game. Lock is going to be checking down to Okwuegbunam a lot just like he did against Georgia, a game in which Albert O went for 18.1 DraftKings points. There is a lot of sneaky value here.

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