NFL DFS Bargain Bin – Week 6

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 6 (Sun.-Mon.)

Welcome to the Week 6 edition of the NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where there may be some mis-priced players across Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft in favorable Fantasy Football match-ups.

Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!

• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.
• These players are but a sampling of who I feel are some of the best values at each position that week. However, with so many skills players in the NFL, there are certainly others worth considering, especially as late-breaking injury news comes out Sunday morning. Therefore, feel free to utilize this piece as a good guide for where some of the most prominent value lies, but not as an exhaustive list.

• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out-of-the-way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 6 slates!

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 6 (Sun.-Mon.) Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston, TB at ATL- Yahoo ($26)/ FanDuel ($7,400)/ DraftKings ($5,800)/ FantasyDraft ($11,000)

Winston finally makes his season debut as a starter in what should be a back-and-forth shootout between two teams that have the weaponry to score on each other’s suspect defense. The 2015 first overall pick has enjoyed solid success against the Falcons thus far in his career, and he completed 27 of 35 passes for 299 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in his one game versus Atlanta last season. He was even better over two 2016 meetings, going 46-for-69 for 542 yards with an impressive 7:1 TD:INT in those contests.

The Falcons’ issues stopping opposing passing attacks are well-publicized, as injuries have gutted them up the middle of their defense. Atlanta comes in allowing the second-most passing touchdowns (12), along with the third-most DraftKings points (27.2) and fourth-most FanDuel points (25.3) per game to quarterbacks. Winston could well have his full complement of weapons Sunday as well, as tight end O.J. Howard has 50-50 chance of making an earlier-than-expected return from his knee injury.

Given the Bucs’ 27.25 (and rising) projected point total, Winston shapes up as a very appealing value at his prices across the industry.

Case Keenum, DEN vs. LAR- Yahoo ($23)/ FanDuel ($6,700)/ DraftKings ($5,500)/ FantasyDraft ($11,300)

Keenum wasn’t exactly in the DFS community’s good graces heading into a Week 5 matchup against the Jets, but he certainly redeemed himself with a 377-yard, two-touchdown effort in that contest. It was the second 300-yard game of the season for Keenum, and it came as a result of a game script that saw Denver surprisingly fall behind to Gang Green.

The same scenario could undoubtedly play out Sunday versus the Rams, given that L.A. is projected to have a fully healthy receiving corps after both Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks were cleared for returns from their respective concussions. Denver will have to remain aggressive to have any chance at keeping up, which should enable to Keenum to get plenty of shots with at a secondary down Aquib Talib that could have some trouble containing Denver’s impressive wideout trio of Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas and Courtland Sutton.

C.J. Beathard, SF at GB- Yahoo ($22)/ FanDuel ($6,300)/ DraftKings ($5,200)/ FantasyDraft ($10,700)

Beathard has shown much more of a willingess to throw downfield in his current starting stint than he did during his rookie 2017 campaign, as he’s racked up 298 and 349 yards, respectively,over his first two games in place of Jimmy Garoppolo (knee) while throwing a pair of touchdowns (and interceptions) in each of those contests.

Those are solid returns on his current price, and that’s not even factoring in the 26 rushing yards he’s compiled during that span (and the upside he carries in that department in general). That puts him squarely in play despite the Packers’ impressive numbers versus quarterbacks overall this season. The 49ers could well fall behind given the weaknesses of their defense and the fact the game will unfold at Lambeau Field, and Matt Breida‘s likely absence due to an ankle injury could also help steer the offense even further towards the passing game.

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 6 (Sun.-Mon.) Running Backs

James White, NE vs. KC- Yahoo ($25)/ FanDuel ($7,100)/ DraftKings ($6,900)/ FantasyDraft ($11,400)

For a player that’s saddled with the “pass-catching back” label, White just keeps churning out double-digit fantasy-point totals. White only saw two carries versus the Colts in Week 5, but he’d logged between four and eight totes in his four previous contests. Moreover, he’s racked up 18 receptions over the last pair of games, as well as four receiving touchdowns on the season overall.

The Chiefs-Patriots point total stands at a whopping 60 as of Saturday afternoon, having already climbed 2.5 points since the open. White’s consistent role in the Patriots offense stands a good chance at affording him a chance at some of those points, while a Chiefs defense that’s allowed a league-high 5.8 yards per rush, the third-most rushing touchdowns (six) and the third-most receptions (39) to running backs makes for an extremely inviting target.

T.J. Yeldon, JAC at DAL– Yahoo ($23)/ FanDuel ($7,100)/ DraftKings ($6,400)/ FantasyDraft ($13,100)

Yeldon came through as a value play in Week 5, with his productive day against the Chiefs partly fueled by an in-game injury suffered by Corey Grant, who’s now out for the season. The veteran pass-catching back is in a good spot again this week, as the Cowboys will once again be without Sean Lee (hamstring) and have allowed the fourth-most receptions (37) to the running back position.

The Jaguars did sign Jamaal Charles this week, but the veteran naturally doesn’t have much knowledge of the offense just yet. That should leave Yeldon in position for the double-digit carries he’s been logging with regularity, giving him a chance to pay off what still remains a very reasonable cost.

Marshawn Lynch, OAK vs. SEA (London)- Yahoo ($18)/ FanDuel ($6,500)/ DraftKings ($5,300)/ FantasyDraft ($10,000)

Lynch stands a good chance of going underowned in tournaments this week, considering that game script derailed him last last week versus the Chargers. The veteran back logged a season-low nine carries against San Diego, but the London matchup against the Seahawks should unfold a bit differently.

Seattle checks in allowing a robust 4.7 yards per carry, along with the fourth-most rushing yards per game (129.0) overall. The Seahawks will be hard-pressed to slow down the hard-charging Lynch, who’d gained between 64 and 130 yards on the ground over the three games prior to last week’s downturn. His modest but consistent passing game role is also worth mentioning, as Lynch has seen between two and five targets in each game thus far.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Chris Carson, SEA at OAK (London)- Yahoo ($22)/ FanDuel ($6,400)/ DraftKings ($4,400)/ FantasyDraft ($8,700)

Alfred Morris, SF at GB- Yahoo ($18)/ FanDuel ($5,900)/ DraftKings ($4,700)/ FantasyDraft ($9,300)

YAHOO-ONLY SPECIAL:

James Conner, PIT at CIN- $25

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 6 (Sun.-Mon.) Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp, LAR at DEN- Yahoo ($22)/ FanDuel ($6,800)/ DraftKings ($6,500)/ FantasyDraft ($12,400)

Kupp has been officially cleared to play in Sunday’s contest against the Broncos after exiting the concussion protocol Saturday morning. That puts him in play in his usual role as a value option against a Broncos defense that’s been a shadow of its former self this season.

Kupp is tied for fourth-most red-zone targets in the NFL (12) and has seen no fewer than six targets in any game. His precise routes and sure hands in that area of the field should play well versus a Denver secondary that’s already allowed six touchdowns to receivers and a 63.64 percent red-zone success rate over the last three games.

DeSean Jackson, TAM at ATL- Yahoo ($20)/ FanDuel ($6,500)/ DraftKings ($5,900)/ FantasyDraft ($11,000)

The Falcons-Buccaneers game isn’t projected to have too many fewer points than the aforementioned Chiefs-Patriots showdown on Sunday night, so you’ll want to have exposure to each team’s passing game. Jackson presents as a nice cost-savings alternative to the much more expensive Mike Evans, and he brings a big-play dimension that dovetails well for fantasy purposes with the Falcons’ secondary problems.

Atlanta has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points (45.2) and fourth-most FanDuel (36.5) fantasy points per game to wide receivers, while Jackson boasts the fourth-highest average targeted air yards (17.3) in the NFL, and a 77.2 percent catch rate that ranks him in the top 15 in the league. While the Falcons have actually been pretty effective at keeping plays in front of them, Jackson’s game-breaking speed combined with the fast track of Mercedes-Benz Dome makes for an enticing fantasy recipe.

Sammy Watkins, KC at NE- Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($6,400)/ DraftKings ($5,400)/ FantasyDraft ($8,500)

Watkins’ price is worthy of a double-take, considering the sky-high projected point total for this game and Watkins’ own success thus far in the Chiefs’ high-powered passing attack. The speedster has between seven and eight targets in three of the last four contests, and he’s facing a Patriots defense that’s allowed the sixth-most receptions (73) to wide receivers, along with the fifth-most touchdowns (six).

In a game that should feature plenty of passing, Watkins should see a fair share of one-on-one matchups while the New England defense converges on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Additionally, it’s worth noting that five of Watkins’ six red-zone targets on the season have come over the last three games, a sign that Patrick Mahomes is becoming increasingly comfortable looking for him around the goal line.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Chester Rogers, IND at NYJ- Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($5,700)/ DraftKings ($4,500)/ FantasyDraft ($8,800)

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 6 (Sun.-Mon.) Tight Ends/Team Defense

Tight Ends

Austin Hooper, ATL vs. TAM- Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($5,600)/ DraftKings ($3,500)/ FantasyDraft ($7,000)

Hooper exploded for season highs in receptions (nine) and targets (120 last week in a plum matchup against a Steelers defense that’s been highly vulnerable to tight ends. Things line up for him well again this week, as the Bucs have yielded the third-most receiving yards (415) to the position on the season, along with a healthy 15.4 YPC figure and a pair of touchdowns.

Hooper’s price remains reasonable across the industry despite his impressive performance last week, and given the game’s projected shootout potential and his ability to get into the second level of a defense, he presents as high-upside, cost-effective exposure to the Falcons’ air attack.

C.J. Uzomah, CIN vs. PIT- Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($5,100)/ DraftKings ($3,000)/ FantasyDraft ($5,900)

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While Uzomah’s ceiling isn’t overly high, he has to be considered given the fact he should have all the tight-end reps to himself Sunday. Tyler Eifert (ankle) is on injured reserve, while Tyler Kroft (foot) is out against the Steelers. Pittsburgh checks in allowing the most receptions (40), second-most receiving yards (424), second-most DraftKings points (20.7) and second-most FanDuel points (16.1) to tight ends as well, furthering Uzomah’s case if you’re paying all the way down at the position.

*NOTE: If O.J Howard (knee) is declared inactive for the Buccaneers, then Cameron Brate also becomes a very viable value option on all four sites.

Team Defense

Buffalo Bills (at Houston Texans)- Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($3,400)/ DraftKings ($2,200)/ FantasyDraft ($4,300)

Buffalo’s defense is likely flying under the radar in many circles, given the team’s general struggles and the fact that the rookie quarterback-led offense has put them in unfavorable situations at time due to turnovers. However, the Bills have recorded multiple sacks in each game, and they’ve tallied three interceptions and five fumble recoveries over the last three contests.

The Texans have yielded 18 sacks through five games, and they almost got Deshaun Watson put in the hospital against the Cowboys last Sunday night by allowing him to take several vicious hits. Watson has also thrown an interception in each game thus far, and the Texans running game has only been about league average with a 4.0 yards-per-carry tally and two rushing touchdowns.

While Watson is likely to get his yards, the Bills should have an opportunity for some sacks and turnovers given their attacking style. The fact they get safety Micah Hyde back from a groin injury and are healthy across the board on defense also boosts their prospects as a low-cost option in Week 6, as does the game’s projected point total of 40, which ties it with the Cowboys-Jaguars tilt for the lowest on the slate.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Washington Redskins (vs. Carolina Panthers)- Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($3,300)/ DraftKings ($2,400)/ FantasyDraft ($4,600)

FANDUEL-DRAFTKINGS SPECIAL:

Cleveland Browns (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)- FanDuel ($3,200)/ DraftKings ($2,600)

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and Fantasy Football analysis all season long!