NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday October 16

Welcome to the Opening Night edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Opening Night – All About Russ:

Welcome back baby! It is opening night for the NBA and even though we have only a two game slate, it is more than enough to scratch the NBA DFS itch I know we have all had since the end of last season.

As much as we all love NBA DFS, the injury uncertainty that surrounds the sport makes it one of the most volatile to play on a day-to-day basis and one where the hour before lock is arguably the most intense of any DFS sport you will play. No worries though – it is opening night, we surely do not have any injuries to worry about right off the bat right? WRONG.

This slate is all about Russell Westbrook ($19.3K) and his availability against the Warriors and old pal Kevin Durant.

On a “normal” two game slate, it would be critical to build around Westbrook, a player with a 34% usage rate last season who put up 67 and 77 fantasy points in his two home outings versus the Warriors last year but was “held” to only 44 and 58 in his two games in Oracle Arena. The fact that just days away from the start of the season, Westbrook had not yet been cleared for contact, considering his style of play, leads me to believe that the Thunder will have their franchise star sit this one out and instead rely on the combination of Paul George ($14.7K) and Dennis Schroder ($13.2K).

During the preseason we saw what life without Westbrook looked like as PG13 led the team with a 33% usage rate while Schroder was not far behind at 30%. When you step back and look at this slate, the Thunder and Warriors game has a total of 225.5 which is nearly 20 points higher than the Celtics/Sixers with the fastest projected pace of play so it makes sense to build around this game as your core build.

PG13 did put up 50 and 62 FPTS in his first two meetings against Golden State last year and Schroder, as a member of the Hawks, worked his way to 30 and 48. Steven Adams ($11.9K) is a nice complimentary piece who put up 33+ fantasy points in three of his four meetings with GSW last year and with DeMarcus Cousins a long ways away and Draymond Green expected to be on a minutes limit initially, Adams should have no trouble dominating inside.

Now, as if the uncertainty around Westbrook was not enough, on Monday afternoon we received news that Steven Adams is officially listed as questionable in the game notes with back tightness. NBA game notes are not always the most reliable but it is worth keeping an eye on here as this would add even more value to the slate if Adams is out. Patrick Patterson and Jerami Grant would likely be the biggest beneficiaries if Adams were to miss with Grant being the player to focus on here. Last season with Westbrook/Adams and Carmelo Anthony off the court, Grant saw a 5% usage boost while putting up just under a FP/M.

I am interested to see what OKC does at the 2 guard with Andre Roberson still out – will they start Terrance Ferguson or Hamidou Diallo who are both priced at the minimum $6K on FantasyDraft. Ferguson has been cleared from the concussion protocol but even as a starter at min-price, this is a player with a 10% usage rate so I would much rather roll the dice on Diallo who flashed serious upside in his final preseason start, playing 40 minutes and racking up 19-5-4 in place of Ferguson.

Even earlier in the preseason, when Ferguson was healthy, and starting, Diallo got some serious bench run as one of the first guys in on the Thunder second unit playing 24 and 23 minutes in the first two preseason games. The players and coaching staff have raved about Diallo, a 2nd round pick out of Kentucky who has flashed serious athleticism and energy – both of which would be needed opening night to keep pace with the Dubs without Westbrook.

So what should we expect tonight? My guess and it seems like most of the buzz suggests that Westbrook will sit out with means PG13 and Schroder are near must plays with their increased usage in a pace up spot. The one thing to keep in mind – this is the late game so there may be a chance we get no Westbrook news prior to lock which would make him a really interesting dart throw in large field GPP’s. Coach Billy Donovan has said, the team has put together two game plans – one with and one without  their star – so this could be a true game time decision.

If we have no news prior to lock on Westbrook, the only true “safe” play on this entire side is Paul George so be careful assuming Schroder is a “lock” regardless – if Westbrook shows up, it would absolutely crush any value the former Hawks PG would have.

NBA DFS – Stack up the Champs:

The Warriors have an implied team total just shy of 120 on this slate, a comfortable double-digit advantage over any other team on the slate with the only real question in my mind being, can the Thunder keep this game close enough to ensure the Warriors stars remain on the court.

The biggest news out of Golden State is that Draymond Green will be limited the first few games of the season which as crazy as it may sound, actually makes Steph Curry ($16.1K) and Kevin Durant ($17.5K) even better plays. Last season, with Green off the court, Curry and KD each saw their usage jump over 3% while putting up nearly 1.5 FP/M  but you do not need me to tell you that these two are great plays, the scary part is they might be better fantasy plays with Draymond limited/off the court.

If you are forced to choose between Curry and Durant, I would side with Curry based on the match-up. Do not be fooled by the game logs for Curry last season against OKC as Westbrook was a top 10 DRPM rated PG while his likely replacement on Opening Night, Schroder, was ranked 79th out of 84 PG’s in the NBA in terms of Defensive Real Plus/Minus rating. While Curry gets one of the worst defenders, Durant is going to be locked up by Paul George and have to deal with Steven Adams inside so I would roll with Curry over Durant if you have to choose.

As long as Curry/KD are healthy, I have zero interest in Klay Thompson who put up only 20-21 fantasy points in three of his four outings against the Thunder last season – there is just not enough usage/volume for Klay when the Warriors have everyone available.

Damian Jones ($6K) will likely draw the start for the Warriors at Center with Cousins sidelined and although the match-up with Steven Adams is a difficult one (assuming he plays), getting a stone minimum starter for the highest scoring team on the night seems like a nice way to save some salary. What I like about guys like Jones is that they would seem to correlate well with Curry/KD in that they do not need the usage/volume to rack up fantasy points as Jones is going to get there with the peripheral stats – blocks, steals, boards and some high % buckets inside. Jones had at least one block in 3 of his 5 preseason games and had a 5 steal game against the Lakers – and at $6K has the ability to be one of the best point per dollar plays.

NBA DFS – The Celtics and Sixers:

Let me be clear, the Celtics and Sixers is a great real life basketball game featuring two teams in a LeBron-less Eastern Conference that are vying for the top seed in the East but with a fast-paced game out West to contend with, I wonder how many will look to pivot to this game as a core build in hopes the late game blows out and the stars in the early game get you better scores at likely lower ownership.

More from FanSided

• USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
• NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
• Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
• MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
• Caesars, BetMGM and PointsBet Promo Codes Give $1,850 Bonus for ANY World Cup or MLB Game!

Joel Embiid ($16.5K) is the top play in this game as his 1.47 FP/M last season would be tops on the slate assuming Mr. Westbrook does indeed sit. Embiid is coming off a strong post-season against this same Boston team where he put up 50+ fantasy points in four of his five outings so the upside is clearly there for The Process who comes at a nice discount from KD if you are looking for a pivot. In the preseason, Embiid was a usage monster, soaking up 36% usage rates over four games – and it is that usage plus his elite FP/M production which makes him a core play.

On FantasyDraft, the fact that Ben Simmons ($16.3K) is priced higher than Steph Curry, Dennis Schroder and Kyrie Irving would seem to me like he is the one stud that gets completely ignored on this slate and any edge we can get ownership wise on a two game slate, I think we have to dig into.

Let’s be clear – this is a tough match-up for Simmons against a strong Celtics defense and the fact that the Sixers have the lowest implied team total (102), will likely not inspire much confidence in building around the Sixers and frankly taking a look at the game logs – it only furthers the case against Simmons. In four regular season starts, Simmons averaged only 31 FPTS but he did go for 37+ in four of the five games against the Celtics in the postseason.

Kyrie Irving ($13.9K) is back and healthy for the Celtics and his price point, just a few hundred more than Dennis Schroder, makes him feel simply too cheap. Remember, when healthy last season, Kyrie was a 33% usage player putting up nearly 1.3 FP/M and even with Gordon Hayward now back on the court, make no mistake – this is Kyrie’s team. It is worth noting – Hayward will be limited to 20-25 minutes a night in the first few weeks of the season so Kyrie’s dip in usage should be minimal in the early going and it should mean more minutes for guys like Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier.

I have to say, looking back through the game logs, I was surprised to see Al Horford ($11.8K) have such strong numbers against the Sixers last season. In four regular season games, Horford averaged 35 fantasy points per game and in the post-season that jumped to just under 38 fantasy points per game. Now, obviously those post-season numbers are without Kyrie and Hayward but that kind of success is hard to ignore in the same match-up he faces opening night.

The Celtics do have the second highest team total on the board so there is obviously production to be had here, but it is interesting to note that when Kyrie was on the floor last season for the Celtics, in nearly 2,000 minutes of court time – that every single player outside of Aaron Baynes, saw their FP/M production drop – so this could be a Kyrie or bust spot when rostering players from Boston.

NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up:

Please note: This is not meant to be a Plug and Play line-up – it is for illustrative purposes only to support the analysis and picks laid out throughout this article.

G: Stephen Curry ($16.1K)

G: Kyrie Irving ($13.9K)

G:Ben Simmons ($16.3K)

F: Joel Embiid ($16.5K)

F: Paul George ($14.7K) 

More from FanSided

• USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
• NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
• Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
• MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
• Caesars, BetMGM and PointsBet Promo Codes Give $1,850 Bonus for ANY World Cup or MLB Game!

Let’s stop here a moment after we lock in five of our eight roster positions on FantasyDraft and address the core build. On this slate, assuming Westbrook is out – my guess is Schroder/George become two of the highest owned plays on the slate and guys like Curry/Durant and Kyrie and Embiid will all be significantly owned. Again, Simmons feels like the odd man out and his price on FantasyDraft just screams like a spot where everyone takes the $3K discount to Kyrie and/or Schroder which makes me like him even more.

So with over 60% of our roster filled – where do we go with the final three spots and just over $7.1K per player to spend. Honestly – it depends.

Hamidou Diallo ($6K) and Damian Jones ($6K) are both interesting punt plays while the front-court trio in OKC of Jerami Grant, Patrick Patterson and Nerlens Noel could become very popular if Steven Adams does indeed sit as you can easily slot in any of these three with Diallo/Jones for an average salary of around $7K.

Let me throw one last name at you as a punt play – Raymond Felton ($7.5K). If Westbrook sits out, everyone and their mother is going to rush to roster Schroder and for good reason, but I would not overlook Mr. Felton. Last year with Melo and Westbrook off the court, Felton had a 27% usage rate, putting up nearly a FP/M and had a 26% usage rate, behind only Schroder/George in the pre-season as the leader of the second unit.

That second team usage can be a very sneaky way to find value and seriously – look at the Thunder second unit – a group that will include Felton, Diallo, Abrines, Grant and Noel – someone has to score. Also, what if Schroder gets in early foul trouble chasing Curry and/or Klay around screens and now you get massive leverage over the field?

I cannot believe on Opening Night I am talking myself into Raymond Felton – but here we are. Welcome back NBA DFS.

Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and content across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings all season long.