DraftKings MLB Picks October 17: Should we go cheap on pitching?

FORT LAUDERDALE, FL – MARCH 8: A skywriter left a message before the start of the Los Angeles Dodgers Baltimore Orioles Spring Training game on March 8, 2004 at Fort Lauderdale Stadium in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. (Photo by Eliot J. Schechter/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks October 17: Should we go cheap on pitching?

In all likelihood, this will be my last MLB DraftKings article for the season. I don’t do slates over two days for a variety of reasons, so I will just take the time to thank you all for reading, and hopefully you came out ahead like I did during baseball season!

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It’s another beautiful day and night for baseball. There will be a 10 mph wind in from right in Houston if the roof is open, and the temperature will be lower than last night.

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MILWAUKEE, WI – OCTOBER 12: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers looks on against the Milwaukee Brewers during the third inning in Game One of the National League Championship Series at Miller Park on October 12, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Clayton Kershaw ($8,700): Do you trust Kershaw in October? It’s getting very hard to, to be honest. The Brewers are hitting a respectable .252 against Kershaw in 143 at bats with four homers and 16 runs despite the 41 strikeouts. Kershaw is at home, where he is normally a better pitcher. He also has the highest strikeout upside on the slate and it really isn’t close. Despite the poor start in Game 1, Kershaw still has 38.7 DraftKings points in three starts against the Brewers this year.

Charlie Morton ($8,000): Want a tougher sell? It has to be Charlie Morton. The Red Sox have blasted Morgan for a .347 average in 101 at bats with four homers, 12 runs, and only 24 strikeouts. Morton only picked up 19.2 DraftKings points in two games against Boston this year. Morton was good at home this year. He will need to be great to tame the Red Sox.

Middle Tier:

Rick Porcello ($7,300): You know with me you are getting brutal honesty, so here it is. If I’m paying down at pitcher, I’m going all the way down to Miley. The Astros are hitting .284 with six homers and 18 runs in 134 at bats. The 37 strikeouts helps, but Porcello only picked up 37.2 DraftKings points in two starts against the Astros this year. Most of that was because he earned two wins. Sound familiar to Kershaw? It is. The smart money may be using the two cheapest pitchers and loading on bats from the ALCS.

Bargain Pitchers:

Wade Miley ($6,000): Miley has been as strong in the playoffs as he was during the regular season. He has 29.7 DraftKings points in his two post season starts and has yet to allow a run in 10.1 innings. Last night’s marathon likely hurts the Brewers more than the Dodgers since Milwaukee has leaned heavily on the bullpen. That may lead to more innings from Miley tonight whether he is pitching well or not.

LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 15: Christian Yelich #22 of the Milwaukee Brewers slides across home plate to score on a double to left field by teammate Ryan Braun #8 (not in photo) during the first inning of Game Three of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on October 15, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Gary A. Vasquez-Pool/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Manny Machado is 4-14 with a solo homer and five walks against Wade Miley. On a two game slate, there is no shame in using a hitter against your pitcher. After all, if Machado homers, it’s plus 14 for him and -2 for Miley.

Surprisingly, Christian Yelich has slugged two homers off of Kershaw. Lefties just don’t do that against Kershaw! Do you really want to pay $5,600 for him though?

Andrew Benintendi is 4-10 with a homer off of Charlie Morton. Xander Bogaerts is 7-14 with a homer.

George Springer……playoffs……..you’ve heard this spiel before.

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Middle Tier:

Matt Kemp is pretty cheap at $4,200, and he has two homers and six RBI against Miley in his career. Puig is 6-19 with a homer. David Freese has taken him deep as well. So has Grandal.

The Astros are pretty reasonably priced tonight. Altuve has two homers off of Porcello, and is locked in at second base. Gurriel is 5-12 so far against Porcello. Josh Reddick has a homer as well.

Ryan Braun is 11-40 with a homer and six RBI against Kershaw in his career. Domingo Santana is 2-4 against Kershaw if he is in the lineup.

I like Mitch Moreland here, but he hasn’t seen a lot of time in the playoffs. He is 4-9 with a homer off of Morton if he cracks the lineup though.

Bargain Shoppers:

Orlando Arcia is so hot in the playoffs that it’s hard to fade him, even in favor of Machado. However, we may not need to go this cheap tonight.

Imagine my surprise when I found that we can go for value with Astros bats. Marwin Gonzalez is 4-13 with a homer off of Porcello. Martin Maldonado is really cheap, and is 2-9 with a homer and two RBI against Porcello.

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