DraftKings NBA Picks October 17: Fade the stars
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks October 17: Fade the stars
The NBA is back! More importantly, DraftKings made a very wise move and made me VERY happy by bringing back late swap! No more destroyed lineups because of someone not being on a lineup card (that happened to C.J. McCollum and about 20% of owners last year), injuries during warm ups, or rest. If weird things are happening out West, we can still swap them out now! I know I don’t mean much for DraftKings in the grand scheme of things. I don’t spend a lot on their sits, but THANK YOU! All of us thank you!
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The money line in the opener was a pretty strong 270.5. I moved off of Diallo and to Kevon Looney and Nerlens Noel while sliding in Simmons at PG and moving Curry to SG. That put me at 288, solid enough to cash!
The winning lineup was a two way tie with 343.25 DraftKings points. Their major difference to my lineup was using Tatum and Steven Adams.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Chris Paul ($8,900): We all know that Paul is really good when healthy. Houston was nearly unbeatable with him and the Beard on the court at the same time. The supporting cast changed a little, but not enough to get me off of Paul. Besides that, Paul racked up 152.75 DraftKings points in three games against his former team last year. Maybe he’s still pissed at the Horn…….er…..Pelicans.
Victor Oladipo ($8,000): It took Oladipo a while to get comfortable in Indiana, but once he was, he exploded. All you have to do is look at his series against Cleveland in the playoffs. Oladipo ended last season with 136.25 DraftKings points in the last two games of the Cleveland series. He could build on that against a Memphis team that can’t decide whether they are rebuilding or trying to make the playoffs.
Honorable Mention:
Jrue Holiday ($7,500): Holiday torched the Rockets for a cool 41.9 DraftKings points per game in the four tilts last year. We saw Holiday really pick it up when Boogie went down last year. Now with him out of the picture, expect Holiday to remain as a great compliment to A.D.
Kyle Lowry ($7,200): I kind of wonder how this is going to go for Lowry, who was very close to DeRozan. Lowry averaged 34.5 DraftKings points in six games against Cleveland last year, but this is a lot different. DeMar and LeBron are in the West now. Is Lowry ready to ascend to the East’s elite? This Cleveland game may not have the luster that the playoff series did, but you can bet Lowry and the Raptors still want to make a statement.
Dennis Smith Jr ($7,000): Where did Phoenix improve at the point? In fact, they may be worse than they were last year when they allowed the second most fantasy points to point guards on the season. Smith had a big preseason, and looks primed for a huge regular season. It starts here.
Dark Horses:
Luka Doncic ($6,700): The Mavs aren’t going to limit the run of Doncic like Real Madrid did last year. The preseason returns have been very good with both Doncic and Dennis Smith on the court together. Doncic isn’t eligible at SG yet, but that is likely where he will play. With Dirk out and Harrison Barnes doubtful at best, Doncic is going to get plenty of run from the start.
Trae Young ($6,500): Young was pretty good in the preseason, and sometimes bad. Just like his year at Oklahoma. The talent is there, but most of what I saw from Young in the preseason was a willingness to trust his teammates. Young is a lethal passer. If he can get his shot falling consistently, Young is going to be a big deal in fantasy. Right now, he is just a GPP flier, but the upside is there.
Frank Ntilikina ($4,800): Ntilikina blasted the DraftKings pricing here being named the starting small forward for the opener. The Knicks like what they see, but Ntilikina was wildly inconsistent last year. However, the amount of talent at this price puts Ntilikina as a chalk play, but he has potential for 8x value or more.
My pick: Smith(PG), Ntilikina(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Kawhi Leonard ($8,100): Leonard has not played since January 13th of last season. The good news is that he seems to be completely healthy. A completely healthy Kawhi is a top ten player in the league. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Leonard right now, but I’m inclined to take the chance on him being engaged and putting in the effort for his new team. That could make Leonard a bargain at this price. It’s hard to fade the Beard, but his price looks high with CP3 on the court.
Donovan Mitchell ($7,900): The Kings have somewhere in the neighborhood of a dozen shooting guards, and none of them would start for another team. Mitchell put up 123.5 DraftKings points in three games against the Kings last year. Expect a similarly strong performance in the opener tonight.
Honorable Mention:
DeMar DeRozan ($7,400): With Murray out for the season, DeRozan is about the only outside threat for the Spurs here. He’s going to shoot and shoot a lot. That is where DeRozan is at his fantasy best. I see DeRozan fitting nicely in San Antonio, and if he starts anything like he did last year, DeRozan is going to be near 7x value. He was that hot at the beginning of the season last year.
Khris Middleton ($7,200): MIddleton brutalized the Hornets last year with 184.5 DraftKings points in the four matchups. Yes, Giannis played in those games. Many are predicting a breakout for Middleton, but there is still a lot of talent in Milwaukee. Still, at this price, Middleton is worth using for the tremendous upside.
Tim Hardaway Jr ($6,600): Hardaway is the only accomplished scorer in this starting lineup. That alone makes him a must play for this price. I do think that at some point this version of the Knicks could set an all time low for points in a game, but it won’t be tonight against the Hawks. There is a lot of potential for Hardaway here, and I really like him at this price so long as his wrist is good.
Dark Horses:
Caris LeVert ($5,800): LeVert’s versatility is what makes him a great DFS target. Russell is more of a shooter, which many times leads to LeVert being the facilitator of the offense. When you can get bulk assists from a guy eligible at SG and SF, it’s not bad to take notice of that. The potential for LeVert at this price is good enough to use him in a few lineups at least.
Rodney Hood ($4,900): Hood is a great GPP target because if he gets hot, he can land you way up the leaderboard. Granted, Hood has more off nights than on, but in a Cleveland lineup that is going to need to cover for LeBron’s scoring, Hood is a great bet to pick up some of that slack. There is a lot of potential here, but Hood is a boom or bust pick. There usually is no in between.
Bryn Forbes ($4,600): Forbes will get first crack at locking down a starting slot with Murray out for the year. Patty Mills seems to do better off the bench. Forbes is probably better suited for the point anyway since he is more passer than scorer. Someone starting for this price on a playoff caliber team is definitely worth a look.
My pick: Hood(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900): Who can stop Giannis for Charlotte? Giannis racked up 153.5 DraftKings points in three games against Charlotte last year. With a lot of the star power out of the East, this is the time for Giannis to stake his claim to being one of the NBA’s best. I have a feeling that he embraces that role and comes up huge for the Bucks – and DFS players – a lot this year.
Honorable Mention:
Aaron Gordon ($7,400): SF is one of the most top heavy positions in the league, but Giannis is the only star on display at the position tonight. That leaves the door wide open for Gordon to make a statement. Gordon put up 89.5 DraftKIngs points in two games against the Heat last year. We saw a lot to be excited about from Gordon in the preseason. It should carry over.
Tyreke Evans ($6,200): It’s easy to forget just how good Evans was on a bad Memphis team last year since he left the team with over a month left in the season. Thankfully, Evans wound up a with a team that can use him……against the team that sent him home in March. In a perverse form of poetic justice, I expect Evans to crush Memphis tonight. Make sure he’s in your lineups!
Taurean Prince ($6,100): Prince was outstanding in extended run at the end of last season for a Hawks team that did their best to get more ping pong balls. There is a lot more to like on this year’s Hawks team, but it was still Prince that looked the star in preseason. Prince looked great for most of the preseason, which means the end of last year likely wasn’t a fluke.
Dark Horses:
Danilo Gallinari ($6,000): The cupboards are more bare in the little brother’s house in L.A. than they have been since pre Chris Paul. That’s good for Gallinari. He is an accomplished scorer, and in the NBA’s sense of humor, he also gets to open against his former team in his new home. We could see a big game from Gallo tonight. We know he is capable of it.
Josh Jackson ($5,300): Like Prince, Jackson did very well with extended run at the end of last season. Unlike Prince, Jackson has some pretty big talent around him, most notably Devin Booker. I want to see how Booker and Jackson coexist as scorers here before I take the plunge, but Jackson is definitely an intriguing GPP play.
Jonathan Isaac ($5,000): Isaac’s ceiling is through the room of the Amway Center. He was limited by a balky ankle most of his rookie season last year, but we have seen flashes of what he can do when healthy. The Heat are a tough place to show it off in the opener, but the price is right to throw a dart with Isaac.
My pick: Gordon(SF), Gallinari(F), Jackson(UTIL)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Kevin Love ($8,600): Love is that guy (or girl). We all know that guy (or girl) that moves with someone they are smitten over to a place where they have no ties, only to be spurned by the smitter and left empty handed in a strange land. Such is Love’s fate in Cleveland. The love of his life (LeBron) packed up and moved in with someone more pretty and glamorous (Los Angeles). This supporting cast was destroyed with LeBron in the Finals. Now they look to Love to help them pick up the pieces. I expect a big season from Love, and Milwaukee is a good place to start. I like A.D., according to DraftKings, he was my most used player last year, but not against Houston. They contained him pretty well last year.
Blake Griffin ($8,200): Griffin looked like his old superstar self in the final preseason tilt by abusing the Cavs. Can he still be a superstar? Beside Drummond? That is how the Pistons have set the team up. Griffin wasn’t healthy for much of his time in Detroit after the deadline last year. Bigs abused the Nets last year. I like Drummond more, but I’m not against using both here.
Honorable Mention:
Paul Millsap ($6,800): Oh yes, I want some of this! Millsap’s first year in Denver was a bust. When he was healthy, the Nuggets were more concerned with not getting him reinjured. Now the Nuggets are willing to turn him loose like they did before he was hurt last year. Millsap was looking strong before the injury. I think he drops 40 DraftKings points here, which puts him at 6x value.
Nikola Mirotic ($6,300): My general feeling is that Randle and Mirotic cannibalize each other, but the more I look at this, the more I think I like Mirotic. Mirotic will help space the court to let Davis dominate in space. I also think he plays along with Randle with Davis resting, so Mirotic probably sees more of the minutes. Of course, this is just my feeling, but for this price, it’s worth rolling him out there to see if it comes to fruition.
Dark Horses:
Carmelo Anthony ($5,200): Melo was mostly a disaster last year in Oklahoma City, but this looks different. Melo looks different in preseason. He seems to be meshing with the stars in Houston and thriving in a catch and shoot role. Anthony doesn’t have to worry about getting his since this team passes to whoever is open. This could work…….or be a spectacular failure. However, for this price, it’s worth finding out which.
Montrezl Harrell ($4,500): Harrell is talking a big game on social media. Now it’s time for him to deliver, which can be hard to do if you’re not starting. However, Harrell is one of the best per minute producers in the league when he comes off the bench. The Clippers are just using Harrell to their advantage. For this price, Harrell looks pretty good, even in only 25 minutes.
Mario Hezonja ($4,400): Can Lance Thomas really hold him off? Really? On a team that is going to need all the scoring they can get? Lance may start, and he may even play well, but the Knicks are going ot need Hezonja’s shooting quite a bit to try and keep up. I expect good numbers out of Hezonja, though the presence of Thomas caps his value.
My pick: Millsap(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Nikola Jokic ($9,900): The Clippers were pretty bad up front last year, and will be even worse this year without Jordan. Jokic put up 134.25 DraftKings points in three games against the Clippers last year. He could put up half that total in one game tonight. Porzingis may be a Unicorn, but Jokic is at the very least a Pegasus.
Andre Drummond ($9,500): The presence of Blake helped Drummond out last year, and likely will again. Drummond is an elite rebounder. Not just of his era, but of any era. That gives Drummond one of the better floors you will see. That suits him better for cash games, but I can make a case for using Drummond in GPP’s in favorable matchups. Considering the Nets gave up the most fantasy points to centers last year, this certainly qualifies.
Honorable Mention:
Rudy Gobert ($7,800): Gobert dominated the young Kings frontcourt last year with 94.25 DraftKings points in two games against them. The frontcourt situation for the Kings is even more muddled with a healthy Harry Giles and the second pick in the draft, Marvin Bagley. None of them can stop Gobert, so fire away with Rudy.
DeAndre Jordan ($7,700): Jordan has finally ended up where he belongs. Can you imagine if Jordan had come here when Dirk could still play 35 minutes a game? At any rate, Jordan is going to be able to dominate the middle like he did for the Clippers. In his first show for Dallas, he gets to welcome the first pick in the draft to the league.
Hassan Whiteside ($7,300): Whiteside still only plays about half the game, but he dominates when he is in there. Whiteside is one of the premier rim protectors in the league, and is a scoring threat as well. The Heat probably wont give him more run even though they should, but Whiteside has proven capable of putting up huge stat lines in less than 30 minutes for most of his career.
Nikola Vucevic ($7,100): Whiteside may be a great rebounder and rim protector, but that does not make him a good defensive player. Vucevic racked up 44.5 DraftKings points in his one game against Whiteside last season. Don’t be shocked if he does it again.
Dark Horses:
DeAndre Ayton ($6,900): Ayton was an absolute monster in the preseason. Can that carry over to the regular season? Ayton will probably have his hands full with Jordan, but his potential is so high that I would still play him at this price.
Jarrett Allen ($5,700): Allen also had a strong preseason, but if the end of last year is any indication, he can definitely keep it going. I’m curious to see how he will do against the massive Detroit front, so I may avoid Allen here, but his athleticism can be intoxicating.
Mo Bamba ($4,700): Bamba is a man-child. Think Dikembe Mutombo with a slightly better offensive game. He wont supplant Vucevic anytime soon, but Bamba is going to get plenty of run behind him. I usually shy away from backups, but Bamba’s defensive game is so far advanced that he has a pretty high floor, even with limited minutes.
My pick: Gobert(C)
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