Fantasy Football, What We Learned – Week 7

There’s a ton of fallout from another busy week in one of the most topsy turvy leagues in pro sports and we’ll tell you what you need to know in What We Learned for Week 7 in Fantasy Football.

I’d like to thank anyone reading this for their patience. I know its later than normal and I appreciate you taking the time to check it out since I was “out of the office” so to speak. We’ll be back to the regular schedule later this week or starting this Monday in the worst case scenario. That’s enough boring details, let’s talk some Fantasy Football.

Fantasy Football AFC East

New England Patriots – Win vs Kansas City Chiefs, 43-40

We didn’t learn this but just a friendly reminder – you NEVER leave time on the clock for Tom Brady. All that does is guarantee that the opposing team will have their hearts ripped out when Brady takes the Pats down for a game-winning score, just like he did here. Josh Gordon and Sony Michel came out as big winners. Gordon jumped to over 80 percent of the snaps and Michel saw 20+ carries in a shootout. The sky is the limit for these two players and the worries about the Patriots offense have passed. I definitely had some concern but acknowledged their skill players were lacking in the early going. I can’t figure out what’s going on with Rob Gronkowski. He’s only seen 35 targets this season which is very low. He was seeing so much coverage in the early going that I blew it off, assuming that once they got healthy he would see some open field. That’s not how things have gone and you just have to ride it out right now. The chemistry between the players will only continue to grow.

Miami Dolphins – Win vs Chicago Bears, 31-28 

The most surprising performance of the 2018 season may have happened with the Brock Osweiler spot start and great game against a nasty Bears defense. Granted, Albert Wilson inflated his 380 passing yards with two monster plays from a yards after completion perspective but I’m not buying into this passing game. It’s too scattered to project accurately every week. The running game is officially a dual threat attack as Frank “The Infinite One” Gore is heavily involved. Both he and Kenyan Drake are flex options but not much more than that. It’s a very frustrating situation and it’s possible that Gore might be the best fantasy back in this offense. Drake might need to get his work done through the passing game. The Dolphins offense might be decent for real life but it’s an absolute roller coaster for fantasy purposes.

Buffalo Bills – Loss vs Houston Texans, 20-13

LeSean McCoy was actually starting to look usable and then Josh Allen hurt his elbow and that could be put to a screeching halt. If Buffalo goes with Nathan Peterman, there is no redeeming factor here. He’s a turnover machine and even Shady would not be an option. Maybe they go with Derek Anderson so McCoy could potentially have some value but it’s still not a good situation at all. Stream the D/ST, trade McCoy if you can get anything for him and then run away.

New York Jets – Win vs Indianapolis Colts, 42-34

This running game isn’t that much better than the Dolphins situation, although it’s a little more even for the snap percentage. That doesn’t mean I’m excited for Isaiah Crowell or Bilal Powell. I’d rather live with the knowledge that I’ll miss the big games then start either back and get bit by a 40 yard performance. Sam Darnold is coming along but it’s a shame that his receivers are getting hurt. Quincy Enunwa is down for a couple weeks at least so Jermaine Kearse enters the picture as the number one receiver in the offense. He should have roughly the same floor of five receptions for 50 or so yards so especially in PPR leagues, he’s a fine flex option. Despite the 42 points, I’m not too excited fro the pieces of the Jets offense. I think this was more due to the Colts defense being poor than anything else.

Fantasy Football AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers – Win vs Cincinnati Bengals, 28-21

I could say that the Bengal just can’t ever figure out a way to beat the Steelers and they always seem to choke it away. That would be rude, so I won’t say that the Bengals always find new ways to lose to the Steelers. Pittsburgh enters their bye week off an emotional win and one that could have been a disaster. Antonio Brown entered the fourth quarter with just 25 yards receiving and was being out-produced by JuJu Smith-Schuster and Vance McDonald. That could have been a lot more drama but Brown and Ben Roethlisberger put on a show in the fourth, culminating with a 31 yard touchdown scamper to win it. The passing game is in good hands with those four coming out of the bye week.

The big question on everyone’s mind is if Le’Veon Bell comes back for Week 8. All reports are indicating that he will and I’m going on record for the backfield will be all his within two weeks. They might split the work 50/50 the first week and then maybe 70/30 the second week while Bell gets into shape. James Conner has been outstanding and has done everything possible to keep the job. The bottom line is he’s not as talented as Bell. Mike Tomlin has always rode one back, regardless of anything else. Pittsburgh will be looking to make a run at the division and more after the bye week. They want their best players on the field.

Cincinnati Bengals – Loss vs Pittsburgh Steelers, 28-21

The hearts got ripped out of the bengals once again but for fantasy purposes, this was a very positive game. Everyone got in on the action despite a slightly down day from Andy Dalton. He just never seems to play well within the division but Joe Mixon, A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd all got theirs. Boyd especially is blooming in a big way this year and we may have found a new tight end. C.J. Uzomah saw a nice target share and he’s the last tight end standing in Cincy. As long as that’s the case, he’ll be a back-end TE1 option. This team is pretty set as far as fantasy goes. There’s more upside as we move along in the season, starting this week against Kansas City.

Cleveland Browns – Loss vs Los Angeles Chargers, 38-14

Things haven’t been going too well for Baker Mayfield. I thought the transition would be a little more seamless but that hasn’t happened yet. Part of that is the receiving corps is beat up to such a major extent. It also doesn’t help that Antonio Callaway has been one of the worst receivers in the league to this point. This upcoming week is massively important for this passing game. If they can’t get it done against Tampa, it’s time to be severely concerned. I’m trying to buy low on Jarvis Landry because I believe in this offense but I get it if you just want to avoid it until Mayfield has some better weapons. The run game is still being run by Carlos Hyde. Despite Hue Jackson constantly saying Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson need more work, it’s yet to happen. Johnson actually racked up 109 scrimmage yards on six touches. Might be time to get the ball in his hands a bit more considering how bad the receivers are right now. David Njoku is a TE1 and could explode these next couple weeks.

Baltimore Ravens – Win vs Tennessee Titans, 21-0 

You’re not going to see 11 sacks very often, but it’s just a reminder of how good the Ravens defense is when they’re healthy. They smashed the Titans offense and they’re a great defense to use in the right matchups. The running game was notable in this one because Buck Allen was passed out for at least a game. That doesn’t mean that Alex Collins is a locked in starter because Gus Johnson saw 10 carries but it was nice to see Collins score twice on 19 total carries. The passing game was a little surprising because John Brown was very quiet in this spot. Michael Crabtree was the best fantasy receiver and he does lead the team in targets. I still would prefer Brown since he has the higher upside but one player to look at with byes coming up is Willie Snead. He’s seen at least four receptions and 40+ yards in almost every game this year. That’s not anything special but teams could be hurting in the upcoming weeks. Joe Flacco is probably better than people have noticed and is a streamer in the right spot.

Fantasy Football AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers – Win vs Cleveland Browns, 38-14

The Chargers bludgeoned the Browns to death in this one with Melvin Gordon and his three touchdowns. The passing game was quiet outside of the random Tyrell Williams game and I wouldn’t want to chase that spot. He’s been doing nothing all season long and a couple of touchdowns shouldn’t change that. Keenan Allen and Philip Rivers were disappointing this week, but it was game script related. I still have faith that Allen is going to pay off and would point to his finish last season as a reminder that he can get red hot at any time. Austin Ekeler is still a fine flex that you need to score to have a decent day.

Kansas City Chiefs – Loss vs New England Patriots, 43-40

The Chiefs offense might be borderline unstoppable with the tandem of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid running the show. Mahomes had another monster game and it helps when you’re throwing the ball to a cheetah named Tyreek Hill. Feel ho

Denver Broncos – Loss vs Los Angeles Rams, 23-20 

This offense is a pain to figure out. Emmanuel Sanders is clearly the only player you’ll feel good about week to week but it’s funny what’s happening with Demaryius Thomas right now. His targets have dropped and his efficiency has spiked. That’s typically not the way it works and I’m not really buying in. It’s not gong to be often that Case Keenum throws for over 300 yards and two touchdowns based off of this season’s data. Don’t give up on Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman at least fro this week. They get Arizona and should both be in the flex discussion. Lindsay had a great game in the passing aspect with six receptions so he’s clearly the back to play. Freeman is more of a player that you’ll have to pick your spots with. This is far from my favorite fantasy offense and the upside is likely capped more often than not.

Oakland Raiders – Loss vs Seattle Seahawks, 27-3 

I’m not sure this one could have gone much worse for the Raiders. They lost Amari Cooper early to a concussion, Marshawn Lynch has a groin injury that could be measured in weeks and Derek Carr was forced from the game. Carr’s injury does not appear serious but any momentum this offense was building appears to have vanished. They ghosted on this game and I can’t blame anyone for not holding onto to their Raiders through the bye week. They just disappear far too often and can’t be trusted whatsoever. They’re reportedly shopping Cooper for a first round pick(good luck with that) and this season is going downhill in a hurry. Jalen Richard might be the only interesting player for PPR leagues just because they don’t throw the ball downfield all that much. At least Jon Gruden has time to make this team his own, I guess.

Fantasy Football AFC South

Houston Texans – Win vs Buffalo Bills, 20-13 

The offensive line is terrible in Houston and it finally came back to bite them in this one. If not for the bailout pick 6 from Nathan Peterman in the waning moments, Houston very well could have lost this game. Part of the reason is the Texans offensive line can’t block anyone. Deshaun Watson was sacked seven times and pressured over 50 percent of the time. The passing and running game got nothing going and the road doesn’t get much easier against a very angry Jacksonville defense this week. You know the fantasy upside is there with Watson and the passing game led by DeAndre Hopkins but it’s severely flawed, at best. It could get very scary if Watson gets hurt and that’s not out of the realm of possibility with how many times he gets hit. The Texans could very easily be winless.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Loss to Dallas Cowboys, 40-7

Full disclosure – I was at a wedding during this game so I’m not entirely convinced someone didn’t play a prank on me and this wasn’t the real score of this game. I have no idea how a defense with the talent the Jags have let a crappy offense like Dallas drop a 40 burger on them, but that apparently was something that happened. You’re playing T.J. Yeldon until Leonard Fournette comes back without question since he’s the man in that backfield but the rest of the offense is like drilling for oil with your bare hands in the back yard – good luck. There’s zero consistency to target distribution of performance from Blake Bortles or his pass catchers. One week, Keelan Cole gets 12 targets than next he sees 1. The same is true for Dede Westbrook and Donte Moncrief so the passing game is probably not going to be that usable moving forward unless you love average, volatile attacks.

Tennessee Titans – Loss vs Baltimore Ravens, 21-0 

Hopefully for any owner, this is the rock bottom for the Titans offense. Put the 11 sacks aside and this offense was still abysmal and it has been almost the entire season. The running game has been awful. Both Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis are cut candidates and even Corey Davis is holding on by a thread. He’s had one monster game and then a bunch of nothing. We’re at the point where Marcus Mariota needs to be questioned as an NFL starter. Four of his starts this year has ended with less than 130 passing yards. His career has stalled and the new offense has been terrible so far. Quarterback is too loaded and there’s very little to use for fantasy unless circumstances change.

Indianapolis Colts – Loss vs New York Jets, 42-34

Andrew Luck is great for fantasy and I’m not sure how he’s been doing it with the pieces he’s missing right now. It seems like no matter how many mistakes are being made in the offense from drops and interceptions, the points are always there for Luck at this stage. Chester Rogers is the man right now in the offense along with Eric Ebron. They’ve been seeing a huge target share in the offense and are the most reliable weapons the Luck has. That doesn’t say a ton but we’ll just have to live with it. Marlon Mack is one of the better additions since he’s in an offense that has to score a bunch and he saw double digit touches right off the bat. Nyheim Hines only saw five touches in a game script that has been his bread and butter, which was interesting. That says that Mack has even more upside as he starts playing more snaps moving forward.

Fantasy Football NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles – Win vs New York Giants, 34-13 

Carson Wentz continues his comeback trail and suddenly he looks like he never missed a game last season. The yardage was a little low but you’re always going to be happy with three touchdowns and the game script didn’t demand much from Wentz from the yardage standpoint. The passing game is being owned by Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz. Since Jeffery has come back in action, they’ve accounted for right about 50 percent of the targets. Nelson Agholor finally saw some yardage to go with his five targets but he really has fallen back into just a complementary role this season.

The running backs under Doug Pederson are always going to be a pain to predict and try to figure out. They’re clearly going to be using a committee approach for the rest of the season with at least Wendell Smallwood and Core Clement as the main backs. It remains to be seen what role Darren Sproles has when he gets back from injury but until then, Smallwood and Clement are both flex options. I’m curious to know how much of this week’s split was dependent on Clement’s injury status. He hadn’t played in two weeks and Smallwood led in snaps and touches. I wouldn’t be shocked to see that flip-flopped in the coming weeks.

New York Giants – Loss vs Philadelphia Eagles, 34-13 

Aside from an unreal performance from rookie Saquon Barkley, there wasn’t much to write home about for the Giants in this one. Barkley did all he could, going over 200 scrimmage yards and hitting pay dirt. He broke the Eagles string of not allowing a running back to go over 60 yards and he shattered that mark with 130 on the ground. That was great but the rest of the offense is not. The offensive line issues were put on display as the Eagles harassed Eli Manning all night long. He didn’t exactly respond to it very well and it put a damper on the passing game. Sterling Shepard is a drop candidate with Evan Engram coming back and even Odell Beckham has to make you nervous at this point. Manning is struggling for a myriad of reasons and Beckham is once again taking heat(some undeserved, at that) for his sideline behavior. I’m not sure how this situation gets better as the season goes on. Beckham might just be a bit more up and down than we had thought.

Washington Redskins – Win vs Carolina Panthers, 23-17 

The Redskins offense is gross. There’s nothing to sink your teeth into as the ball is being spread around so much. No wide receiver has seen more than 30 targets and no player has more than 35. Even with a bye week mixed in, that’s not usable for fantasy in this environment. Alex Smith isn’t usable either with his 250 yards and under two touchdowns a game so it’s really Adrian Peterson while Chris Thompson is out and Jordan Reed just by default since he’s a tight end. Washington is 3-2 so they don’t have a lot of motivation to change what they’re doing right now. That’s not good news for fantasy and maybe it’s just the D/ST as a streaming option for now. It’s really a poor fantasy team right now.

Dallas Cowboys – Win vs Jacksonville Jaguars, 40-7 

Sorry, but I’m not buying any stats from this game other than Ezekiel Elliott. The Dallas offense has shown so little for so long, you best believe in the track record over the one weird game that nobody can explain. Cole Beasley could be a PPR option if he keeps it up but it has to happen more than once every four weeks for you to feel good about it. Dak Prescott has been terrible for fantasy for way too long and the position is way too good for me to point chase here. The D/ST might not be bad in the right spot. Until we see some type of consistency, this situation is a total pass.

Fantasy Football NFC North

Green Bay Packers – Win vs San Francisco 49ers, 33-30

Aaron Rodgers is really, really good at football. He and Davante Adams pretty much ruined the night for the 49ers as Rodgers went over 400 yards and Adams went over 130 and caught two touchdown passes. Rodgers is hoping that he no longer has to wear his knee brace after the bye week, which is also great news. The risk for re-injury seems to have passed. Jimmy Graham and Marquez Valdes-Scantling both went over 100 yards but I wonder how involved both those players stay coming out of the bye week. Green Bay should get Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb back. It’s something to monitor the next couple of weeks.

It’s truly the mark of a stubborn person that Aaron Jones has seen his snap rate go down the past couple of weeks. Anyone can see he’s the best option in the running game but Mike McCarthy just flat refuses to use him in any capacity that we can trust. Eight carries and one target will never be good enough to trust and the Packers will have to change how they approach their backfield to give anyone any value the rest of the way.

Detroit Lions – Bye Week 

The Lions are traveling to Miami to take on the Dolphins this week and I wish we were talking about how Kerryon Johnson was ready to fully break out. Alas, Matt Patricia seems determined for that not to happen yet so we remain focused on the passing game.

Chicago Bears – Loss vs Miami Dolphins, 31-28 

Is it coincidence that the Bears offense has started to hit their stride when they’ve involved Tarik Cohen and Taylor Gabriel more? Possibly, but it’s hard to ignore that the points have flowed when they’ve injected more speed into the offense on a game to game basis. Jordan Howard owners need to be in full panic mode. His snaps have decreased every week and Cohen has been a monster for two straight games when the Bears have scored at least 28 points. There’s no reason to think Cohen won’t be at least this involved the rest of the way. Gabriel has been the better fantasy receiver than Allen Robinson and they might be neck and neck or at least much closer than we all though before. Gabriel should be picked up everywhere. Trey Burton is fine but not exactly what we thought for a tight end and he’s seeing 4-6 targets a week. Mitchell Trubisky is in the streaming conversation with his little bit of rushing ability and starting to look a little more comfortable in the offense. I’m not going to blame you if you drop the Bears defense this week against the Patriots.

Minnesota Vikings – Win vs Arizona Cardinals, 27-17 

We’ve known this for a few weeks but Adam Thielen might be the second best fantasy receiver. Realistically, he’s in the discussion for the number one spot. He’s more consistent than a metronome at this point and you just expect a floor of six catches and 100 yards. Stefon Diggs is a distant second in the passing game and when the game script skews towards the Vikings, it might be a challenge for Diggs to see the volume to keep up with Thielen.

The big story out of this is Dalvin Cook was forced to miss another game. At least we knew before kickoff and we didn’t get a 10 carry and done effort, but this hamstring has really persisted. If you were smart and picked up Latavius Murray Sunday morning, don’t drop him yet. We need to see where this injury goes and know Cook is fully healthy before anything else. We also learned that if you play running back in the NFL and play the Cardinals, you need to be started. They are the best possible matchup for fantasy running backs.

Fantasy Football NFC West

Arizona Cardinals – Loss vs Minnesota Vikings, 27-17 

It. seems weird to say it but Christian Kirk might be the receiver to own from the Cardinals. He’s out-playing Larry Fitzgerald right now and there’s really not even a debate about it. Kirk leads in receptions, yards and has one touchdown on the year to zero for Fitzgerald. It also pains me to see David Johnson used so poorly but as always, when someone of his talent level gets 20 or so touches every week, you start him and don’t look back. He’s not going to return value from where you drafted him but he’s a locked in volume-based starter. Ricky Seals-Jones is in the mix for a starting tight end but that just speaks to the position, not what Seals-Jones is doing on his own.

Los Angles Rams – Win vs Denver Broncos, 23-20

Todd Gurley is a borderline cheat code this year for his owners. You can almost chalk up 20 points before the game even starts and he set a new career high with 208 rushing yards. Thee’s not much to be said with him but the passing game might face a little adversity here. Cooper Kupp will likely miss some time with a knee injury and it looked more serious than it turned out to be. We’ve not really seen the Rams offense deal with a missing component since Sean McVay has taken over so it’s hard to project what will happen. I suspect that Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks see an uptick in targets and maybe Josh Reynolds gets some run here as well. He’s certainly not a starter this week without having any knowledge of how to proceed. Jared Goff had a quiet game but this was more about using Gurley as a battering ram(haha, get it?) and getting out of a snowy Denver with a win.

Seattle Seahawks – Win vs Oakland Raiders, 27-3 

I will continue to be low on Russell Wilson when the Seahawks exit their bye week because he’s living off of touchdowns right now. His TD rate is spiked at 7.9 percent, which is 2.1 higher than his career rate. That’s just not sustainable and he’s not throwing the ball a lot at all. He’s attempting well under 30 passes a game and he’s got just 17 rush attempts all season long. Once those touchdowns normalize, the fantasy points are going to come crashing down. The lone positive in the passing game is Doug Baldwin actually caught six passes so welcome back to him.

The running game is a total nightmare. After Rashaad Penny didn’t record a snap in Week 5 and we thought we had a tag team of Chris Carson and Mike Davis, Pete Carroll decided to mess with us and play Penny. He actually had more touches than Davis and only three fewer than Carson. It was frustrating to see Carson get a touchdown called back on a penalty, but you can’t get too involved in three man monsters. It’s just going to leave you heartbroken more often than not.

San Francisco 49ers – Loss to Green Bay Packers, 33-30

This loss has to sting the 49ers a little bit as it seemed like they had walked into Lambeau Field and snatched a victory with their backup quarterback and the patchwork offense. It was not to be as Aaron Rodgers did Aaron Rodgers things but the fantasy value for the 49ers potentially saw some wild shifts. Alfred Morris went from being a player who carried the ball 18 times the previous game to zero in this one. I have no idea why they switched so suddenly and there was no indication from anyone prior to the game that he was on the outs with the offense. Raheem Mostert shared the load with Matt Breida and looked good doing it, rolling up over 85 yards on just 12 carries. The best guess is that could be the new normal but it’s just that at the moment – a guess.

C.J. Beathard isn’t a good real life quarterback but he actually has fantasy value since he’s hit at least 245 and two touchdowns every game so far. It doesn’t hurt that he had Marquise Goodwin go for well over 100 yards on just five targets and we know Goodwin has the speed to torch any secondary in football. I’m not ready to trust Goodwin as an every week starter yet but it’s nice to know he’s back in action. George Kittle was quiet but tight ends will have these games. You just plug Kittle right back in this upcoming week.

Fantasy Football NFC South

New Orleans Saints – Bye Week 

Alvin Kamara owners are probably still tilting the last time we saw the Saints in action as Mark Ingram came back and owned the backfield. I doubt that Kamara will only have nine touches a game moving forward and we should see a much more even split moving forward. They face a tough challenge in Baltimore and it would be nice to see Michael Thomas bounce back after two straight sub-par outings as well.

Carolina Panthers – Loss vs Washington Redskins, 23-17

Cam Newton is just a boss more often than not for fantasy. He rushed for his normal 40+ yards and then added almost 300 passing yards and two touchdowns. He’s going to let you down a couple of times this year but the upside is so massive every week, you just set him and forget him. Devin Funchess got a touchdown so he was a good start this week. That’s always going to be the case with him and when he doesn’t find pay dirt, Funchess will be just another guy. Greg Olsen could get hurt anytime but until he does, he’s a great tight end option. It’s nice to see him play so many snaps and better days are ahed if he’s healthy. Christian McCaffrey was very quiet but that will happen from time to time. I think CMC is a solid running back in the traditional sense but eight carries is not going to pay off very often. The good news is he saw seven receptions due to game script so it was a fine PPR game considering the factors.

Atlanta Falcons – Win vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 34-29

Matt Ryan is unstoppable at home, even though Julio Jones might never score another touchdown again in his life. DOn’t get me wrong, there’s nothing to be mad about with 10 receptions and 143 yards but it’s just comical at this point that Julio can’t get a touchdown. Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu both left this game with injuries but they seem to be relatively minor. Maybe that helped Austin Hooper see another big target share and he’s paid off two straight weeks. It’s hard not to consider him a top 10 option at this point in an offense that needs to score a ton of points the rest of the way.

The backfield got a lot more concentrated with Devonta Freeman heading to the IR and Ito Smith needs to be owned everywhere if he survived the waiver wire. He and Tevin Coleman will be splitting work and Smith is the man in the red zone. He leads the team with 16 chances and touchdowns make up for a lack of efficiency so far for Smith. You know where things stand in the Falcons offense as long as Ridley and Sanu are both ready to roll for this week. The only question is whether Hooper can maintain his momentum through the rest of the season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Loss vs Atlanta Falcons, 34-29

Jameis Winston was a very popular option for seasonal additions coming into this week and he showed exactly why. The matchup was great but Winston took advantage of it for almost 400 yards and four touchdowns. There’s going to be turnovers just like there always is with Winston but you’re not going to care with this type of volume and yardage. Chris Godwin needs to be wined everywhere due to his ability in the red zone and he’s scored a touchdown in every game except one. Mike Evans has been quiet lately but these stretches can happen. There’s no reason to be concerned and the only other passing game component that needs to be highlighted is O.J. Howard. He mad a very quick recovery and saw four targets in this game and is a top flight tight end option moving forward.

The running game saw Peyton Barber maintain his role as the lead back in the offense, which was a little bit of a surprise. Ronald Jones only saw about 18 percent of the snaps and Barber smoked the Falcons for over 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. That might be his best game of the season but he’s going to get the touches in an offense that has to score a ton of points. That’s valuable in the running back landscape.