NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday October 17
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
The Opening Night of NBA DFS went about as expected with a heavy emphasis on Stars and Scrubs as the top 6 fantasy performers on the night also happened to be the studs everyone was looking to build around. The biggest stud of the night though also happened to be the lowest owned by a wide margin as Ben Simmons went for a slate leading 61 fantasy points at less than 20% ownership while none of the other big stars – Curry, Durant, Embiid, Schroder and PG13 – were less than 50% owned on the slate.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Top Guards
After a two game NBA DFS appetizer, we get ready to rock tonight with a massive 11 game slate to dig our teeth into. This is the slate you have been waiting for since last season ended and the NBA gave us some amazing match-ups both in real life and for DFS purposes on the first big slate of the season. With a larger slate like this, my goal will be to go position by position, using FantasyDraft pricing and positions as a guide – giving you my core plays and GPP pivot options to build around tonight.
The Core Plays:
As soon as I opened this slate, my eyes were drawn to the Rockets-Pelicans match-up and this is not simply latching on to the game with the highest Vegas total at 228 – this game is everything we want for NBA DFS as this is the fastest projected pace game on the slate between two teams with elite upside stars and a core group of players that soak up all the usage.
No team in the NBA played at a faster pace last season or in the preseason this year than the New Orleans Pelicans – so saying that James Harden ($20.4K) and Chris Paul ($16.2K) are getting the largest pace boost of any team just makes it difficult to go anywhere else for my core set of guards.
We all know that Harden/CP3 are an elite pairing as you get two ball dominant, high usage options who averaged 1.5 and 1.3 FP/M respectively last season. Against the Pelicans last year, we saw those numbers spike even further as Harden averaged 1.65 FP/M and CP3 moved to 1.5 FP/M with both players sporting a 30% or higher usage rate.
On the other side of this game Jrue Holiday ($13.8K) and Elfrid Payton ($10.5K) make for a cheaper stacking alternative in the same elite game environment. We saw last season when DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo were off the floor that Holiday saw the biggest usage boost on the team, a nearly 6% jump, and his 30% usage rate and over 1.3 FP/M mark put him right behind the Pelicans top dog – AD.
I have always been a huge Elf fan, the guy is a legit triple double risk any time he touches the floor and I will say – this price is VERY appealing tonight. The issue with him is that he is an obvious secondary option sharing the floor with Holiday, AD and even Nikola Mirotic/Julius Randle. The upside is there for Payton because he can rack up steals/assists but he draws one of the toughest individual match-ups against Chris Paul tonight so it may not be the right time to deploy him unless you are game stacking.
NBA DFS – The Guard Pivot Plays:
With the Rockets-Pelicans game drawing much of the attention today, I wonder how many people will look at the Bucks-Hornets as a similarly high upside game stack, as they have the third highest game total on the board with a 217 total and only a 2 point spread.
The Hornets are a team to watch this year as with a new coach in James Borrego, they emphasized all preseason on pushing the pace and being an up-tempo team and it showed in the results as Charlotte was top 10 in pace throughout the preseason. Kemba Walker ($13.8K) is the clear top dog here especially now with Dwight Howard out of the picture as Kemba sported a team leading 32.3% usage rate and 1.4 FP/M with Howard off the court last season.
The other side of this game with the Bucks – they are one of the easier teams to break down as their usage essentially comes from three guys with Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe being interesting run back options in a game stack. Their price points (both over $13K on FantasyDraft) make them more of tournament options considering they will be secondary options to a certain Greek superstar any night he takes the floor.
The Nets are a team that historically has always looked good on paper with a fast pace and a poor defensive rating which usually meant up-tempo games with lots of scoring but the rub with this team is that coach Kenny Atkinson loves to play a deep rotation. Well tonight may be the night to run some Nets out as Brooklyn will be without Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll and it looks like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson remains a GTD.
D’Angelo Russell ($11.9K) was the clear winner in this scenario last year when that group was off the court as he saw a 3% usage boost and led the team with a massive 35% usage rate. Caris LeVert ($11.5K) was the star of the Nets preseason and will likely slide into the starting unit tonight with so many bodies being out – and do not overlook Spencer Dinwiddie who will likely get a ton of run alongside D-Russ/LeVert as a cheap guard punt.
If you are new to Picks and Pivots – well first off – welcome. If you are a long-time reader – you know what is coming.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (Yes he gets his own section)
Yes, I have an unreasonable love affair with THJ and feel free to go ahead and tell me he’s awful in the “traditional sense” but for DFS in the right environment, he can be a total game changer.
Look back to last season – take Kristaps Porzingis (injured) and Michael Beasley (now a Laker) off the court and you will see THJ got a 7% usage bump – leading the team with a 32% usage rate and over a FP/M of production. The Knicks are going into the year with a starting five of THJ, Frank Ntilkina, Trey Burke, Lance Thomas and Enes Kanter – now look at that line-up and tell me where the points/usage is coming from.
Now, the price at over $12K is high when you consider I can move down to Elf or D-Russ etc but this match-up with the Hawks (REVENGE NARRATIVE) gives THJ an elite game environment against one of last years highest pace and worst defensive teams (that will also be without John Collins in the middle). Just saying – don’t be shocked when THJ goes off!
NBA DFS – Core front court plays
Just as we started the core guards with the Pelicans-Rockets, the front court decisions in my mind start and end with how you want to treat Anthony Davis ($19.8K) tonight. AD is basically the Harden equivalent in the front court – a high usage/FP per minute player who can break the slate (in more ways than one) on any given night. It is the first chance we have to play Mr. Glass so be prepared for the “Anthony Davis is headed to the locker room” tweet that ruins your night – it will happen more times than you want this year – believe me.
Alvin Gentry says probable starting lineup tomorrow night will be Elfrid Payton, Jrue Holiday, E’Twaun Moore, Nikola Mirotic and Anthony Davis. #Pelicans
— Andrew Lopez (@_Andrew_Lopez) October 16, 2018
Even though Nikola Mirotic is getting the start, I could argue Julius Randle ($12.4K) is actually the better play as he will play on the second unit where he can dominate the usage while Mirotic fights for leftovers with Holiday/AD on the court.
On the other side of this game, Clint Capela ($13.5K) may be the over-looked piece from this game that goes off and makes your stack shoot up the standings. Capela has had success in this match-up before – putting up 48 and 58 fantasy points in two meetings against the Pelicans last season and with a depleted Houston frontcourt tonight, he may have the safest minutes floor of any one in the game not named AD/Harden.
The Rockets have already ruled out BOTH Marquesse Chriss and Nene which means the only frontcourt reserves this Houston team will have are Carmelo Anthony and Isaiah Hartenstein ($6.7K). With AD on the floor, the Rockets are going to have to run Capela major minutes – and with his price being $3K lower than CP3, he may be the preferred option to pair with Harden in a game stack. Hartenstein is the punt play within this game stack (alongside starter P.J. Tucker at only $7.6K) that really allows you to load up on the studs if you so choose. With Chriss/Nene both out – the second year big man is going to get all the minutes he can handle behind Capela tonight in the best game environment on the board.
NBA DFS – Front Court Pivot Plays:
For as great as AD is and you can argue he is THE GUY to build around at F/C – there is certainly a path tonight where Andre Drummond ends up as the highest scoring option on the slate. This match-up with the Nets is one he has destroyed previously with two games of 60+ fantasy points against them last season with a preseason 14/10 to boot this year.
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The one team I am really going to be looking for news today on their projected line-up is the Dallas Mavericks who get the second largest pace boost on the slate (behind Houston) as they take on the Phoenix Suns. What is really intriguing here tonight is we already know the Mavericks will be without Harrison Barnes and Dirk Nowitzki which means the core plays will get all the usage they can handle, and we may be able to find some punt plays with upside who get larger roles.
Rookie Luka Doncic ($12.3K) will slide into one of the forward spots alongside Dennis Smith Jr. and Wesley Matthews but he is actually guard eligible on FantasyDraft – no matter, the rookie is a multi-category monster who will be playing a Suns team that ranked dead last in DvP and defensive efficiency last season.
In their final preseason game, it was Dorian Finney-Smith ($7.6K) who grabbed the start alongside DSJ, Matthews, DeAndre Jordan and Doncic and considering the coaching staff has raved that he would have been a top 10 pick if they did his NBA Draft over – tells you the coaches have confidence in DFS and in this match-up against the Suns – any player getting major minutes is on our radar.
We mentioned early the plethora of injuries to the Nets with Carroll and Crabbe out and RHJ being questionable which could open up some serious value for the Nets. The interesting thing is their best bet would be to play small – but how can you do that against the Pistons with Drummond and Blake Griffin on the court?
In the Nets last preseason game, Brooklyn started Russell, LeVert, Jarret Allen alongside Joe Harris and Jared Dudley. Dudley ($6.2K) is basically minimum price and could draw the start as a stretch four tonight for the Nets with major minutes also going to bench guys like Treveon Graham and Rodions Kurucs. Graham and Dudley played 27-28 minutes in that last preseason game against the Knicks with a similar player pool available so there could be some serious punt play value from the Nets tonight if you need it.
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up:
Please note: This is not meant to be a Plug and Play line-up – it is for illustrative purposes only to support the analysis and picks laid out throughout this article.
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G: James Harden ($20.4K)
G: Jrue Holiday ($13.8K)
G: Luka Doncic ($12.3K)
F/C: Anthony Davis ($19.8K)
F/C: Clint Capela ($13.5K)
F/C: Dorian Finney-Smith ($7.6K)
UTIL: Jared Dudley ($6.2K)
UTIL: Treveon Graham ($6.3K)
Slate Overview: Going into this initial build, I really wanted to get a feel for roster construction around a big dollar Rockets-Pelicans stack. To me, this is a must have game environment tonight and with a huge 11 game slate it gives you the opportunity to find value and make a Stars and Scrubs build work. Building around a Harden/Capela/AD/Jrue core is pricey and you are going to have to stomach some ugly names – but NBA DFS is all about minutes – and if guys like DFS and Dudley are going to play 25-30 minutes then they become options for you to consider. As always follow me on Twitter @2LockSports where I will pass along updates throughout the day.
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