Gus Malzahn is always lingering somewhere around the hot seat, and if Auburn wants to fire him a big buyout would not be a problem.
Since leading Auburn to an appearance in the national title game in his first season (2013), Gus Malzahn has been no stranger to the hot seat. A game against LSU a couple years ago was considered a “loser fires their coach” game, and that’s just what LSU did by letting Les Miles go.
Even with losses to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and to UCF in the Peach Bowl, Malzahn rehabbed his stock last year with 10 wins. That included wins over Georgia and Alabama in the regular season.
Auburn was being pointed to as a playoff darkhorse entering this season, with Jarrett Stidham in place as one of the top quarterbacks in the SEC.
But things have gone off the rails so far, with a 4-3 record and back-to-back losses to Mississippi State and Tennessee heading into Saturday’s game against Ole Miss.
With five games to go, and games coming against Texas A&M (Nov. 3), Georgia (Nov. 10) and Alabama (Nov. 24), simply getting to six wins and bowl eligibility is now a question for Auburn.
Malzahn remains committed to Stidham as the starting quarterback, despite his being the SEC’s 10th-rated passer with seven touchdowns and four interceptions so far this season. But does Auburn have to be similarly committed to Malzahn?
Based on the seven-year, $49 million contract extension Malzahn got right after last season, the immediate answer would be yes, Auburn is stuck with their current football coach.
But Brandon Marcello of 247 Sports was on the “Paul Finebaum Show” this week, and painted a different picture.
"I'm not ruling out a change at the end of the season even though he (Malzahn) has a contract that has at least 38 million dollars in buyout money...from what I've been told, there's not much concern there when it comes to the money" - @bmarcello pic.twitter.com/jjhYUemqxz
— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) October 16, 2018
A $38 million buyout would surely be a huge barrier to firing Malzahn. But Forbes pegged Auburn as the eighth-most valuable college football program in the country for the 2017-18 season, with $112 million in revenue and $61 million in profit.
Add in the revenue streams and profits from this year, and $38 million somehow seems palatable if Malzahn doesn’t turn things around over the rest of the season.
Malzahn carries a reputation as an offensive guru, but Jordan Rodgers of SEC Network offered a look at how predictable Auburn’s offense was against Tennessee.
Auburn is predictable on Offense based on personel.
— Jordan Rodgers (@JRodgers11) October 15, 2018
vs Tenn when a TE/FB (predominantly Chandler Cox) is on the field vs off the field:
On — 35/47 Rush or Screen: 74%
Off — 30/33 Pass: 91%
Teams play coverage vs 4 wide, load the box vs heavy sets. Can’t win like this.
A perceived offensive genius with a good quarterback and good skill personnel will struggle to overcome bad line play. On that note, Auburn has allowed 15 sacks this season while not even getting to 100 rushing yards in three of their last four games.
Six or seven wins and edging into bowl eligibility was not what anyone attached to Auburn football envisioned for this season. Saturday’s game against Ole Miss is practically a must-win, and Malzahn should feel some extra heat if the Tigers leave Oxford with a loss.