DFS NFL Game by Game Breakdown, Week 7

We have a 10 game slate on tap for Week 7 and we’ll be going game by game to break everything down and discuss who you should be playing this week in DFS NFL!

This week represents a very interesting DFS NFL slate for us. There’s only 10 games and due to byes and what time they play, we’re without the Packers, Steelers, Chiefs, Bengals, Chargers, Falcons and Giants. That’s a lot of star players that won’t be available so we need to figure out who we should play and there’s some great value this week. We’ll unearth it along the way as we go game by game and break it all down!

Browns at Buccaneers, O/U of 50.0, Bucs -3

Buccaneers Breakdown

We’ll start with the running game and I’m not sure why Peyton Barber is so cheap but he really jumps out since he’s actually cheaper than Ronald Jones. Barber led the snaps by a 62 to 18 percent split this past week and racked up over 15 touches. Cleveland is giving up the fourth most rushing yards per game, which is a pretty nice spot to attack. If you’re paying up for Todd Gurley, this seems like a great complement to do it. It’s not going to feel totally safe due to the ineffectiveness that Barber has shown all season but you need so few points to hit 3x.

Jameis Winston saw his price shoot up to a point where I’m not all that interested but some of his passing game components are. Chris Godwin continues to just be way too cheap as he’s scored in four of five games and tied for the team lead in targets this past week. That’s not to say that Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson aren’t in play, but anytime Godwin is under $5,000, count me in. Denzel Ward might see plenty of Evans so Godwin could really do some damage. The Browns have been tough against quarterbacks so I won’t be heavily invested in this spot. The over/under is pretty high and is tied for the highest on the slate. Jackson and Evans are more GPP options while Godwin is still a cash play.

Cash Options – Chris Godwin, Peyton Barber, O.J. Howard

GPP Options – DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, Jameis Winston

Browns Breakdown

This has to be the spot for Baker Mayfield. It’s been a rough go and the offense is banged up but the Bucs defense is that bad. They remain the most generous team to quarterbacks, are giving up the most yards per game and the highest passer rating allowed. DK made it a little tougher to play Jarvis Landry at $7,300 but the target share is still among the top six in football. This is really a make or break spot for the passing game. Antonio Callaway continues to be just terrible at playing receiver but also has the highest aDOT on the team and draws the best matchup possible. If he can’t get it done here, 2018 might not be the year for him. My favorite way to stack Mayfield is David Njoku. The young tight end has his own inconsistencies but with double-digit targets two weeks straight and no receivers to speak of, Njoku should be a great option.

Tampa has been surprisingly stout on the ground but running backs have racked up 333 yards through the air, same amount of rushing yards. Carlos Hyde is fine since you feel good about the volume and price but he’s not special without a touchdown or two. Maybe it’s a Duke Johnson game. He’s seen at least 45 percent of the snaps the past two weeks but remains capped at about eight touches.That keeps him in the GPP conversation.

Cash Options – Baker Mayfield, David Njoku, Jarvis Landry

GPP Options – Duke Johnson, Carlos Hyde, Antonio Callaway for the bold

Panthers at Eagles, O/U of 45.5, Eagles -5.0

Eagles Breakdown

The Eagles offense is actually a little easier to breakdown than I thought it would be coming into the season. Carson Wentz is a perfectly fine option at his price, needing only 18 DK points to hit his 3x mark that we generally look for. The passing game goes through Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz, who have combined for a massive 63 targets since Jefferey has come back. For context, Wentz has thrown 121 passes in those games so these two are demanding about 50 percent of the targets. I truly don’t have an issue paying up for Ertz, despite his price tag. He plays tight end but he’s a receiver.

The backfield is much harder to get a handle on but Wendell Smallwood played more snaps and out touched Corey Clement last week, 19-14. Clement didn’t get over 40 percent of the snaps and that could have been injury related. Smallwood actually held a 6-4 advantage in red zone chances and is cheaper, so if you had to play one that might be the route to take. At the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the percentages all flip-flop this week and see Clement lead the time share.

Cash Options – Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz

GPP Options – Wendell Smallwood, Corey Clement

Panthers Breakdown

Cam Newton is under $6,000 so he’s absolutely in play. I wonder if his rushing potential is even higher than normal if he’s looking to escape some of the pressure the Eagles can bring. They have a respectable 16 sacks so far and we all know what Newton is capable of on the ground. I almost never play a running back against Philly. Before they got destroyed by Saquon Barkley, they hadn’t allowed a back to go over 60 yards for over 20 games. You can argue that Christian McCaffrey has a similar skill set to Barkley but I’m still not sure I want to play him. The receiving upside is likely high enough that you can still play him as the Eagles have given up 41 receptions to backs so far but there’s likely better options. If he doesn’t get the receptions, the floor could be scary low.

The passing game is interesting. Despite Greg Olsen returning to the lineup, Devin Funchess shared the target lead at eight and found the end zone. Attacking with receivers has been the weak spot for the Eagles defense so far and they have been excellent against tight ends. I would lean towards Funchess in this spot and it’s important to remember with Olsen that he’s got every chance to re-injure that foot. It was a bit of a surprise to see him play basically every single snap. D.J. Moore is starting to work into the offense a little more but still hasn’t topped five targets yet. That’s a tough sell for anything but a GPP dart.

Cash Options – Cam Newton

GPP Options – Christian McCaffrey, Devin Funchess, Greg Olsen

DFS NFL – Vikings at Jets, O/U of 46.5, Vikings -3.5

Jets Breakdown

Minnesota has been far from the defensive juggernaut that many(including me) thought they would be and Sam Darnold has a price tag just low enough to tempt me. He’s totaled five touchdowns the past two weeks even though the yards haven’t been anything special. You can afford a lot of other players if you stacked Darnold and Jermaine Kearse. He’s one of the last receivers standing in New York with Quincy Enunwa and Terrelle Pryor both being questionable for this game. Kearse saw 10 targets last week with Enunwa leaving in the second quarter and that could be a trend that continues this week. The running game continues to be just utterly infuriating. Neither Isaiah Crowell or Bilal Powell have seen their snaps climb over about the 40-45 percent mark and that’s just ridiculously hard to trust. On top of that, the Vikings are only allowing 93 yards rushing a game. That’s not something I’m terribly interested in.

Cash Options – Jermain Kearse

GPP Options – Terrelle Pryor, Sam Darnold, either running back

Vikings Breakdown

Adam Thielen is very deservedly the second highest priced player on this slate and he’s just been unbelievably dominant so far. His “worst” game so far was 19.2 DK points which was six receptions for 102 yards. He’s just been a total monster and I don’t blame anyone for paying up. I very much think Thielen and Todd Gurley are going to be my main two studs this week. Stefon Diggs is a great pivot off of Thielen but he might be more GPP than anything. It’s been a bit more of a roller coaster for Diggs and there’s a chance the game flow doesn’t go his way the week. Kyle Rudolph is pretty intriguing at his price point. Sure, you need him to score and the red zone usage has been discouraging but the price is right. A game of five receptions for 50 yards is right about value and anything over that should give you pretty solid return.

The running game is going to be up in the air with Dalvin Cook‘s status not yet known. Latavius Murray destroyed the Cardinals last week for over 150 yards rushing and a touchdown on 24 carries and a snap percentage of right about 81 percent. If Cook is out, Murray is firmly in play. The Jets are average as far as rushing yards allowed and you would have a tough time passing that type of volume at just $5,000. If Cook plays, I would be off this situation totally. There’s just no telling how healthy Cook would be.

Cash Options – Adam Thielen, Latavius Murray if Cook is out

GPP Options – Stefon Diggs, Kirk Cousins, Kyle Rudolph

DFS NFL – Lions at Dolphins, No Line yet

Dolphins Breakdown

I’m letting out a heavy sigh because I don’t want to do it but I think Frank Gore is in play this week. The price is great on DraftKings at just $3,800. He’s seen his carries increase every single week and he saw a season high 15 carries this past week. The Lions have been crushed on the ground and are going up the third most yards per game and that includes a per carry average of 5.3 yards. Gore and Kenyan Drake have both seen eight red zone chances and it’s hard to look past Gore as a cash option this week. Drake himself is too expensive for my liking since the split is so even.

Brock Osweiler and Albert Wilson went wild on Sunday but it’s so hard to trust any type of repeat. First off, Wilson got those yards with a lot of YAC and that’s very difficult to replicate every single week. Secondly, the passing game continues to be a mess as far as targets are concerned. Wilson does lead the team….with 32. That’s good for an 18 percent market share and just isn’t good enough to feel confident in. Oh, the Lions have a really good secondary and are only giving up 222 yards per game. I don’t want to have too much invested in the passing game since it could be any one of Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, Jakeem Grant or Wilson leading this week. Give me Gore as a cash play and anything else is GPP only.

Cash Options – Frank Gore

GPP Options – Kenyan Drake, any receiving option

Lions Breakdown

Miami is giving up the ninth most yards in the league and have really been saved by the touchdown/interception ratio. It sits at 9/11 so far and if it wasn’t for that, they would likely rank far worse against the passing game. The Lions are more advanced than the Bears offense that just passed for over 300 yards and it’s easy to like the Lions receivers. None of the prices are that crazy and Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay are both over 40 targets so far. Marvin Jones may trail in overall targets but he’s still the red zone monster with eight targets to seven for Golladay and Tate combined. It will be interesting to see how Xavien Howard is deployed in this spot. Tate and Golladay spend time in the slot, which is one spot where Howard doesn’t really go. It might be a spot to pay up for Tate in this one since he leads in slot usage. Until Kerryon Johnson gets more work and Matt Patricia wakes up, I’m steering clear of him. He’s eventually going to have another monster game and I want to be there for it but there’s no way you can play him as anything but a GPP option. Despite ripping off 5.7 yards per rush, he can’t get a ton of work or get on the field for more than about 45 percent of the snaps. I’ll politely pass on LeGarrette Blount for the rest of my life, thank you.

Cash Options – Matthew Stafford, Golden Tate

GPP Options – Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay, Kerryon Johnson

DFS NFL – Patriots at Bears, O/U of 49.5, Patriots -3.5

Bears Breakdown

The offense has started to click a little in Chicago. Mitchell Trubisky has been front and center in that and is still at a very affordable price. He’s totaled over 300 yards the past two games and have thrown nine touchdown passes. The Patriots have given up the 12th most yards and are tied for the second most passing touchdowns given up. Trey Burton keeps finding the end zone and isn’t seeing a ton of targets but the price isn’t too terrible here.

One of the best ways to get a part of the Chicago offense and some salary relief is playing Taylor Gabriel. He’s been dominant for two straight games and has been more productive than Allen Robinson by a significant amount the past two games. He’s actually pulled ahead of Robinson on the seasonal basis as well but is a $1,400 savings this week. The Patriots have also had some issues with speed receivers. Speaking of speed, Tarik Cohen has to be firmly on the radar. Jordan Howard has seen his snaps decreased for four straight weeks and that’s a huge issue for him. He’s been at 15 or fewer carries for four of the five games for the Bears. Cohen should be the better play this week, especially when he gets into space on the Patriots linebackers.

Cash Options – Taylor Gabriel, Tarik Cohen, Trey Burton

GPP Options – Mitchell Trubisky, Allen Robinson

Patriots Breakdown

The Bears defense came up terribly small this past week against the Dolphins and this shouldn’t be the spot where they get right. The Patriots have been getting healthy and the points have started to follow. This is potentially as cheap as you’ll see Josh Gordon the rest of the season. He jumped to over 80 percent of the snaps and led the team in targets. The chemistry wasn’t exactly there for Gordon and Brady as he turned those nine targets into just five receptions for 42 yards. We have to read the tea leaves to get out in front of that first big game and this one could be it. I would rather play Gordon for $1,000 less than Julian Edelman this week.

I think Edelman has a safe floor but the ceiling for Gordon could be higher. It was great to see Sony Michel still get 20+ carries in a shootout game last week. The matchup isn’t great on paper but the Bears also just let 712 year old Frank Gore run for 100+ yards. Michel is on a much better offense and he’s way cheaper than James White. Gordon and Michel are the cheapest way to get a piece of the Patriots offense and they make a lot of sense. Rob Gronkowski has only seen 35 targets so far but he’s down to $6,000. It’s pretty tempting to play him this week in a game that could have plenty of points.

Cash Options – Sony Michel, Julian Edelman, Tom Brady

GPP Options – James White, Josh Gordon, Rob Gronkowski

DFS NFL – Bills at Colts, O/U of 43.5, Colts -7.5

Colts Breakdown

This is an interesting spot for the Colts. The Bills have been much better than expected defensively and the Colts could be missing a bunch of offensive weapons yet again. Still, it’s not like Andrew Luck hasn’t been trucking through all types of adversity to deliver the fantasy goods these past few weeks. His price tag likely keeps me off of him but that all depends on if Jack Doyle, T.Y. Hilton and others play. Hilton did practice on Wednesday so maybe he makes it back for this one. He would see the blanket that is Tre’Davious White so Chester Rogers is in play again. He’s seen double-digit targets three straight weeks and there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t do it again in this contest. Eric Ebron is basically in the same boat. Injuries are forcing him into a monster role and he’s an option as long as Doyle remains out.

I think my favorite play from Indy is Marlon Mack. He’s healthy and he’s the man the Colts want to use. He didn’t even see 35 percent of the snaps but totaled 13 touches. If the snaps rise, the touches should follow and Nyheim Hines was left out in the cold this past week with only five touches. That’s jarring considering the game script they were in and how Hines had been getting used. I’m ready to play the Colts defense, even with the “Bills Price Bump” to $3,300. I might be a little less enthused with Nathan Peterman not being the starter but the Colts are still a fine play.

Cash Options – Marlon Mack, Chester Rodgers, Eric Ebron

GPP Options – Andrew Luck, Colts D/ST, Erik Swoope

Bills Breakdown

I can’t do anything from the Bills with the possible exception of their defense. We want defensive units that can rack up sacks and turnovers, which the Bills can do. Derek Anderson is going to be the starter and he is a better option than Nathan Peterman but that bar is very low. That makes every single offensive player hands off for me. LeSean McCoy had been picking up some momentum with at least 90+ scrimmage yards two straight weeks but Peterman destroys that. Even on a 10 game slate, there’s no reason to play Bills players.

Cash Options – Bills D/ST

GPP Options – LeSean McCoy

DFS NFL – Texans at Jaguars, O/U of 42.0, Jaguars -5.0

Jaguars Breakdown

The Jaguars passing game is basically a copy of the Miami Dolphins passing game as far as targets distribution. There’s four player that are within 40-37 targets on the season so guessing who’s going to be the man on any given week is dicey at best. Keelan Cole, Dede Westbrook and T.J. Yeldon all saw five this past week so that’s no help. If Leonard Fournette continues to sit, Yeldon is a fine option. He’s been a little hit or miss while filling in but the Texans have given up the 12th most receptions to running backs. That would fit well into the skill set for Yeldon and that’s likely the best bet here. Blake Bortles is always in play when he’s so cheap but there’s nothing major that points to him this week. I’d rather play Trubisky, Newton, Mayfield and Stafford in that range.

Cash Options – T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars D/ST

GPP Options – Blake Bortles, your choice of receiver

Texans Breakdown

It could be a very ugly football game in this one. It has the secondary lowest O/U on the slate and there’s good reason for that. Both offenses are pretty flawed and Houston has given up the second most sacks so far. Deshaun Watson has been under siege all year and Jacksonville could add to their 14 sack total in a hurry here. Despite the Jaguars getting worked by the Cowboys, I’m not sure I want to test this unit again. They should roll into this one absolutely furious and looking to take it out on someone. The one spot where maybe the Jaguars will be a little vulnerable is in the slot. That puts Keke Coutee on the radar but there’s other receivers I’d want before him. Lamar Miller doesn’t do anything for me. He’s been over 70 yards on the ground once. The passing game with Watson, Coutee and maybe Will Fuller or DeAndre Hopkins do make for an interesting GPP stack but there is massive risk to be had.

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Texans D/ST, Deshaun Watson, all the passing game weapons with Keke Coutee being the best options

DFS NFL – Saints at Ravens, O/U of 50.0, Ravens -2.5

Ravens Breakdown

The Ravens offense might not be a terrible stack this week. Well, possibly not so much for the running game but the passing game is pretty interesting. Every component is pretty cheap and it starts with Joe Flacco. He’s been having a pretty solid season so far and the Saints have had plenty of issues through the season against passing games. Micheal Crabtree has taken over the lead in targets and but I would still want to play John Brown more. The aDOT is just ridiculous at 19.7 and he should be able to get loose at least once in this one. Willie Snead is a very nice option for cash games. His ceiling isn’t super high but he’s caught at least four passes and gone for at least 45 yards in every game but one so far. His average points on DK is 11.2 and at only $4,000, he should be a very solid floor play. He’s only 12 targets off the team lead. Buck Allen finally took a backseat last week but I’m not terribly excited for Alex Collins in this spot. The Saints are allowing the fewest yards per game on the ground so there’s much better plays on paper.

Cash Options – Joe Flacco, Willie Snead, John Brown

GPP Options – Michael Crabtree

Saints Breakdown

It’s a terrible matchup on the road but we’re not going to see Drew Brees at $5,700 too often. I’m definitely willing to take a shot in GPP but beware of the home/road splits for Brees. It’s a small sample but his yards drop by about 40 per game, the completion percentage goes down 13 percent and the touchdowns drop from eight to three. Now, most of the passing numbers are still excellent even with the drop-off but it does need to be noted. Excellent meaning still over 300 yards per game and a 70 percent completion percentage so Brees is still in play.

I’m not touching Alvin Kamara after what we saw before the by week. He dropped to under 50 percent of snaps, and only saw nine touches to go along with one red zone chance. That doesn’t mean I want to use Mark Ingram either because Sean Payton is already talking about taking a more balanced approach. Michael Thomas has seen an odd drop in targets as well. He’s only seen nine the past two games so his price is a little shaky as well. Tre’Quan Smith would be a cheap GPP stack with Brees if Ted Ginn remains out but if not, it might be Brees by himself in this one.

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas

DFS NFL – Cowboys at Redskins, O/U of 41.5, Redskins -2.0

Redskins Breakdown

This game is fairly unattractive all the way around. The O/U is rock bottom and the Redskins offense has been very mediocre so far this season, generating just 21.2 points a game. That’s good for 24th in the league so there’s likely not going to be too much here for us to like. The running back situation is very unsettled right now as Chris Thompson missed this past week with an injury. Adrian Peterson had a very solid game but is injured himself. If Thompson misses this one, Peterson is a fine cash game option at his price tag. Just be aware that only six teams allow fewer rushing yards than the Cowboys this season.

The passing game is being led by Alex Smith but it’s only averaging about 250 yards a game. That really won’t cut it and Smith has only thrown for six touchdowns in five games. The Kansas City offense sure seems a long ways away for him right now. Jordan Reed is tied for the team lead in targets but also hasn’t exceeded 65 yards once, hasn’t caught more than six passes and has only one touchdown to his name. No other actual wide receiver has seen more than 24 targets this season. This just doesn’t seem all that interesting on this side of the ball.

Cash Options – Adrian Peterson is Chris Thompson is out

GPP Options – None

Cowboys Breakdown

Dallas is still right about 60 plays per game, which is 28th in the league. Despite their offensive explosion, you certainly can’t trust anyone on this offense outside of the standard Ezekiel Elliott. Cole Beasley is coming off a big game but had totaled just 107 yards in the three games prior on a meager eight receptions. I’m not taking my chances on that one when a player like Frank Gore is cheaper and should see much more volume. It was nice to see Dak Prescott using his legs again but he rushed for 11 attempts in this one. He had 11 rushing attempts combined the three games prior. If that sounds like a broken record, it should. The Cowboys offense has been dreadful. A weird blowup game against a really good defense shouldn’t change the impression fo the offense as a whole. I’m not falling for the point chasing this week. It’s Zeke or bust just like it almost always is.

Cash Options – Ezekiel Elliott

GPP Options – Dak Prescott, Cole Beasley

DFS NFL – Rams at 49ers, O/U of 52.5, Rams -10.0

49ers Breakdown

C.J. “Blake Bortles West” Beathard has my attention at this price point. He’s started three games and has thrown two touchdown passes and at least 245 yards in each. The 245 yard performance came Monday night in Lambeau Field so I’m not going to hold that too much against him. If you can get two touchdowns, at least 250 yards and a touch of rushing upside thrown in for $4,800, you have to at least consider it. One thing you definitely should not do is play Alfred Morris. He was basically frozen out of the backfield rotation this past week, not recording an official carry. Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert led the backfield with double-digit rush attempts each. You could talk me into a cheap dart with Mostert but I’m not sure that’s the best idea. To say we have a handle on the San Francisco backfield wouldn’t be accurate at all. Marquise Goodwin popped off and I’m not sure what to make of that. He’s finally healthy but five targets isn’t the best leg to stand on. Fortunately his speed can make up for all that in an instant so he’s a GPP target.

More from FanSided

Cash Options – C.J. Beathard

GPP Options – Matt Breida, George Kittle, Marquise Goodwin

Rams Breakdown

I haven’t the faintest clue how the DraftKings pricing algorithm works but they messed up on this one. Todd Gurley trucked the Denver Broncos for over 200 rushing yards…and his price dropped. Play him and don’t look back. Cooper Kupp has been ruled out so we can expect Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods to see a few more targets this week. They’re both in great spots and I think Jared Goff is a great GPP option since most people won’t pay up for the position. The only concern is Gurley steals the touchdowns since he has 37 red zone rushes, 16 more than second place Sony Michel. The Rams defense might be in play as well since Beathard turns the ball over a good bit but they’re not a priority. The Rams should be even more concentrated than normal and a player like Josh Reynolds is GPP only. We don’t have a track record to fall back on to suggest what he will do this week.

Cash Options – Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods

GPP Options – Jared Goff, Josh Reynolds

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