FanDuel NBA Single Game Breakdown: Lakers-Blazers

Day 3 of FanDuel NBA regular season is here and we have three really good games tonight.  Instead of breaking down the 3-game slate, I wanted to spend some time today talking about single game strategy as both Fanduel and Draftkings are now offering single-game slates every night in NBA (and pretty much every other team sport, too!)  I’m going to focus on Fanduel roster construction today, but many of the principles I’m going to discuss can easily be applied to the Draftkings showdown format, too. 

FanDuel NBA Single Game Breakdown: Lakers-Blazers

The FanDuel NBA single-game contest has five roster spots, with an “MVP” slot that has a 2x multiplier, a “Star” slot with a 1.5x multiplier, and a “Pro” slot that has a 1.2x multiplier. The final two slots are just raw points with no multiplier.  The same Fanduel scoring rules apply (remember that blocks/steals are 3 points, which is different from DK).  There are no positional constraints, meaning you can roster all guards or all big men if you wanted to, but you do have to have at least one player from each team in your final five. Fanduel does NOT drop your lowest score in this format, that new rule only applies to full 9-player contests.

Fanduel Single Game Strategy

Basketball games, like all pro sports, are subject to variance. However, the NBA is one of the more predictable sports in that we usually have established rotations for each team that guarantee minutes and opportunities for the players we want to target.  Since the average NBA game has around 100 possessions for each team, we don’t have to worry about correctly predicting game flow and game script as we do in NFL. Sure, players get in foul trouble or have bad shooting nights, but for the most part, we can usually count on players to get their normal amount of usage.  And yes, blowouts do occur, but not nearly as often as most people think (the average margin of victory last year was 11 points and only 1.3% of games were decided by 20 points or more). The main point here being, NBA games are pretty predictable and we can use that to our advantage when making single-game lineups.

FanDuel NBA Single Game Breakdown: Lakers-Blazers

Raw Points Matter

When making your pick for the MVP slot you really need to lock in the player who is most likely going to have the most raw fantasy points. These players are usually priced way up to where it may not seem like good “values” based on their salary, but if you don’t have one of the top 2 high scorers in the MVP slot, you’re going to have a hard time cashing. For example, some people may feel like 18,500 is too much for Lebron tonight, but if he gets his average of 54 FD points then he’ll end up with 108 points in the MVP slot, which is almost 6x value on his price. For cash games, go ahead and lock in the highest priced stud in the MVP slot and don’t overthink it. For GPPs, you can always try going with the second or third highest projected player and hope that the stud busts as a game theory move.

Locking in Studs

For the Star and Pro slots, you really need to target other high-usage and high-minutes players.  It makes sense to use one of these slots on a player from the opposing team from your MVP, but that’s not a hard and fast rule. As long as you’re locking in some of the high-end plays from the game, you’re making sure your lineup has both a high floor and ceiling. Don’t worry about saving salary for the last two spots or trying to create a balanced lineup.  If the pricing allows it, I have no problem the three highest priced players in the MVP, STAR, and PRO slots and if you’re making multiple lineups, I would recommend alternating your top 3 slots between your top three projected players to make your lineups unique.

Value in the Utility Slots

In most games, there are some 6-8k players who we can use to fill out the last two slots on our roster. It might be a rotational player who gets 25 minutes off the bench or a backup player who is starting due to injury but there is usually value to be found somewhere. The vast majority of successful builds that I’ve made on Fanduel feature a stars and scrubs type lineup construction.  If you nail the top three spots, all you may need is 15-30 FD points from these last two spots in order to cash.  You still want to target players that you know are going to get minutes so I wouldn’t totally gamble on a 6k player who’s not in the rotation.  Getting these last two spots right is an important part of nailing the build, so again if you’re building multiple lineups consider locking in your top three studs and playing around with the remaining salary to build several combos you like.

FanDuel NBA Single Game Breakdown: Lakers-Blazers

Lakers-Blazers Single Game

This is the highest total of the three games tonight and I think everyone is expecting a fast-paced, high scoring affair. Portland is favored by three points at home, but all everyone will be talking about is the debut of Lebron James with his new Laker teammates.  I will be playing LeBron in just about every lineup in the MVP spot as I expect him to easily be the highest scoring fantasy player in the game. Over his career, he has averaged 28 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists against Portland which is pretty close to where he finished last season.  I expect him to come out and do what he does and try to put on a show for the national television audience. Portland, like most teams in the league, doesn’t have anyone who can guard him. Lebron is the GOAT (as the kids say these days) just pencil him in at MVP and move on!

The Lakers rotation is uncertain at this point. How the minutes shake out between Rajon Rondo and Lonzo Ball will be interesting. Ball is 12k on this slate, while Rondo is 9.5k so I have zero interest in Lonzo and a good bit of interest in Rondo at those prices in their timeshare.  JaVale McGee is the starter at center, but the Lakers showed this preseason they are comfortable going small and playing without a center for long stretches. I’m just not that interested in 15-20 minutes of McGee.  The major pieces I’m interested in for the Lakers here are young stars Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma. Ingram comes at a 12.5k price tag but showed this preseason that he’s capable of putting up big games. Kuzma is only 11k and is a lock for the majority of my lineups. I love that he comes off the bench and he should soak up the majority of usage with the second unit. He should play well with Lebron on the floor and without him as well. I will have some exposure to Kenneth Caldwell-Pope (10k), who can hit hot from behind the arc and should get plenty of open looks playing alongside Lebron in the starting five.  The other guy I am considering is Lance Stephenson, who is a stat stuffer off the bench for the second unit. He and Lonzo might cancel each other out though, and his minutes are not secure. He’s definitely a GPP-only type option.

On the Portland side of the ball, I would love to roster Damian Lillard as I think he’s likely to be the highest scorer for the Blazers tonight. However, his 16000 salary with is cost prohibitive and if you roster him and Lebron you’re left with only 8500 per player for your final three spots. It’s not impossible to build, just doesn’t seem optimal. Instead of Lillard, I’ll have a lot of his backcourt mate C.J. McCollum at 13500 and Blazers big man Jusuf Nurkic at 13000. Nurk is my favorite play on Portland as he looked awesome in preseason and finished last season with a 27% usage rate.  I don’t see the Lakers being able to slow him down inside and I love his ability to score, rebound and block shots.  The return of Moe Harkless (9500) to the rotation is going to muddy the minutes at the 3 and 4 spots for the Blazers. Harkless is being limited to 20 minutes so I’m not likely to play him. Al-Farouq Aminu (10500) is not a guy I usually consider due to his lack of usage, he relies on rebounding and defensive stats for a good chunk of his production. Evan Turner is in line to start at small forward and is priced at 9k where he doesn’t need to do much to make value. I’d rather use him than either Harkless or Aminu. If you’re looking for a really cheap option, Jake Layman had a nice preseason and is only 6k but I’m just not sure he’s going to get much run with everyone in the rotation finally healthy.

FanDuel NBA Single Game Breakdown: Lakers-Blazers

Again, I’m going to have the vast majority of my lineups begin with Lebron James in the MVP slot.  Because of salary cap restraints, I won’t have much Damian Lillard but instead will have a lot of CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic for the Blazers. Kyle Kuzma and Kenneth Caldwell Pope are solid mid-range values for the Lakers. My favorite value plays are Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson and Evan Turner based on their ability to all be multi-category contributors.

Here’s what my lineup might look like.  Remember, this is not intended to be a plug-and-play lineup just to illustrate the roster construction concepts that were discussed. Pay attention to any updates on playing time, rotations, etc…

MVP – Lebron James: 18,500

STAR – Jusuf Nurkic: 13000

PRO – Kyle Kuzma: 11000

UTIL – Rajon Rondo: 9500

UTIL – Lance Stephenson: 8000

Good luck in all your contests tonight, and I hope you try out the single game format on Fanduel. Thanks for reading and as always hit me up on twitter @ThunderDanDFS with comments, questions, and general feedback!