Fantasy Football: Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 7

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate Fantasy Football prediction, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story. Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

*Funnel Defense refers to a noticeable difference in DVOA between pass defense and rush defense.

Pass Funnel Defenses:

NO (Pass: 30th, Run: 1st), SF (Pass: 26th, Run: 11th), MIN (Pass: 25th, Run: 9th), IND (Pass: 24th, Run: 8th), DAL (Pass: 23rd, Run: 5th) HOU (Pass: 22nd, Run: 2nd),

San Francisco ranks 26th against the pass and 11th against the run

LA will make the short trip to San Francisco, to take on the 49ers this Sunday. The Rams will catch the 9’ers on a short week, as they’ll be coming off of playing the Monday night game in Green Bay. San Francisco as been much more susceptible through the air than the run, in terms of efficiency this year, which should bode well for a Rams offense ranks first in overall offensive efficiency. The Rams are massive 10 point favorites, and have a projected team total of 31.25 points. LA should be able to move the ball in all aspects, but there are some more intriguing options through the air, with the absence of Cooper Cupp. This will now open up an every down role for Josh Reynolds, but we can also bump up existing receivers like Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Gerald Everett. Reynolds is the one being talked up the most, and with good reason, however Everett could have the more sneaky upside, with lower ownership in tournaments.

Run Funnel Defenses:

WAS (Pass: 13th, Run: 30th), GB (Pass:15th, Run: 28th), DEN (Pass: 8th, Run: 29th), NYJ (Pass: 6th, Run: 16th), CLE (Pass: 3rd, Run: 24th) SEA (Pass: 4th, Run: 15th)

Overall Inefficient Defenses:

TB (32nd), ATL (31st), DET (30th), OAK (29th), KC (28th), NYG (27th), NO (26th), SF (25th)

New Orleans ranks 26th in overall defensive efficiency

While eating the chalk with LA may be necessary, the Baltimore Ravens players may provide a better source of low owned options. Baltimore will finally be home, to take on the visiting New Orleans Saints. Baltimore has been impressive on both sides of the ball this year, and the offense will now face the 26th ranked defense. I think Baltimore can have success running the ball here, but that may not be the path of least resistance, as the Saints rank 30th against the pass and 1st against the run. That being said, I’ll be all over pass catchers like Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Snead. Not only am I intrigued by the, “Willie Snead revenge game” narrative, but he has the best matchup out of those three pass catchers. Marshon Lattimore should return this week, and while he hasn’t been great this season, the best matchup will be Snead vs. P.J. Williams. Williams has the worst PFF grade out of all of the Saints DB’s, with a grade of 42.4. If the winds stay below 15 MPH, look for Joe Flacco to have success in this spot.

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Fantasy Football: Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 7

By Matt McGarvey | Oct 18, 2018