NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday October 18
Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
If last night was any indication of what we can expect from NBA DFS scores this season than we better up our expectations for what kind of scores are needed for cash as we saw winning scores on FantasyDraft sitting in the 350-360 range on this first slate. With the expanded foul rules and new shot clock adjustments, it is certainly something we need to watch to see if the uptick in scoring and fantasy output will be a continued trend.
We had some incredible individual performances, none better than Anthony Davis who went for 32 and 16 and a slate leading 77 fantasy points which outscored the next closest, Giannis Antetokounmpo by almost 20 fantasy points. The leaderboard in many ways was as expected with AD, Giannis and James Harden up top – but we had some surprises (well not if you read Picks and Pivots yesterday) – as Kemba Walker in a new pace up, PG focused offense, put up 55 FPTS and Mr. Picks and Pivots himself – Tim Hardaway Jr. went for 51.5 fantasy points of his own!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Top Guard Plays:
After a two game slate on Tuesday and an 11 gamer last night, we fall back into a small three game slate tonight but once again the NBA has done a great job of saving some great individual games for these standalone spots.
The game of the night is clearly the Lakers and Trail Blazers, with a slate leading 222 game total and with the largest projected pace boost on the slate, it is tough to not simply start every line-up you have with Portland’s Damian Lillard ($16.1K). Lillard is going to match-up with Rajon Rondo (although waiting for official Lakers starting confirmations) which is a match-up he should simply destroy as he put up 44 and 51 fantasy points against him in two meetings last season as a member of the Pelicans. If/when the Lakers go to Lonzo Ball as their PG – well guess what, Dame took him to town too – with 55 and 47 fantasy points in two meetings last season. In my mind, Lillard is the best guard to build around on the slate and his price point is reasonable enough you can stack him with a few other stars quite easily.
It may be tempting to stack Dame with CJ McCollum ($13.4K) but we have enough data to know at this point that the two Portland guards simply do not correlate all that well together. It is very rare that both of them go off and if you simply look at the data over the last two seasons – when Dame, McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are on the floor together (a near 2,000 minute sample size), McCollum is only putting up 0.87 FP/M. Now add in the fact McCollum will get the defense of Josh Hart/KCP and you can see why simply paying the added money for Dame seems like the safer route. Now McCollum did put up roughly 35 fantasy points per game in three starts versus the Lakers last season but at this price point, I think asking for him to hit even 3x value (40 fpts) seems like a bit too much.
I debated whether Ben Simmons ($18K) should be a core play or whether he belongs more in the pivots category and I guess it depends on how you look at it. From a pure match-up perspective you would argue that this match-up with the Bulls is about as good as it gets – as the Bulls ranked 3rd worst in the entire NBA in team defensive rating. In three games against the Bulls last year – Simmons AVERAGED (yes averaged) – 62.4 fantasy points with 23 points, 11.7 rebounds, 11.7 assists and 2.3 blocks per game – he AVERAGED that.
The price is really what makes him more of a pivot when you consider he is just $800 cheaper than a certain new Laker who everyone is going to want to roster. Simmons was the superstar everyone left out on Opening Night, owned at less than a 20% clip and when you consider he is priced $2K more than Dame and $3K more than John Wall, I wonder how many will really opt to pay up for him tonight?
UPDATE: Kris Dunn has been ruled out which means Cameron Payne ($7.1K) will start and becomes the auto-chalk value guard to lock in and move on. In 14 starts last season for the Bulls, Payne put up 22+ in 11 of those games and went for 30+ in three of those games. Payne should be game script proof – he will get the run regardless of if the Bulls can keep it close tonight and becomes a near must play in a Stars/Scrubs build.
NBA DFS – Guard Pivot Plays:
The first game of the night, the Heat and Wizards, feels like one on any normal slate we would totally ignore to be honest. These two teams are largely the same as they were a season ago where Miami was a top 5 team in terms of DvP and both teams tonight are projected to see a pace decrease. Now add in the fact the Magic are the only team on the slate playing on a back to back, and this game just generally feels unappealing but I think that is what makes it a potential pivot.
The Wizards are pretty easy to break down – it is the John Wall and Bradley Beal show when you are looking for NBA DFS options to play from Washington. With Wall priced right below Lillard and Beal priced right below McCollum, they make for interesting pivot options off what I expect with be the more popular back-court here tonight.
The Heat side of this game though is where I think I have interest and that seems odd considering they are on a back to back and played four of their five starters 30+ minutes last night. Now much of that has to do with how banged up the Heat are – they played only 9 guys last night as all of Justise Winslow, James Johnson, Wayne Ellington and Dion Waiters were forced to miss their opening game and are expected to miss again tonight.
Rodney McGruder ($7.9K) started for the Heat last night and played 32 minutes which puts him into immediate consideration as one of the best point per dollar value plays on the entire slate. With starting PG Goran Dragic playing 33 minutes last night, it would not shock me to see Tyler Johnson ($7.8K) be asked to play more than the 24 minutes he logged last night ans will likely be completely ignored coming off the bench for Miami.
On a short slate like this, it becomes much harder to find value but there is some potential to grab a minimum priced play like T.J. McConnell ($6K) off the bench for the Sixers. In their first game against the Celtics, McConnell played 22 minutes off the bench (as compared to 24 for Fultz and 30 for Redick) and with the Sixers again expected to be short-handed without Wilson Chandler and Mike Muscala, getting some bench exposure to Philly is an interesting idea. This is the Sixers home opener against one of the worst teams in the NBA last season, so it is no surprise we have an 11 point spread – McConnell is one of those plays we know will get run in a close game and would likely get extended run if the game turns into a blowout – which seems crazy to say for a total punt but he looks to be safe under any game script.
NBA DFS – Core Front Court Plays:
Finally – after basically failing to break a sweat in the preseason as a member of the Lakers, we get to see LeBron James ($18.8K) for the first time as a member of the Purple and Gold. On a three game slate, under $20K – this is just a plug and play for me – you simply do not fade the best player on a three game slate – just my two cents.
Joel Embiid ($18.3K) is coming off a solid but not spectacular 44 fantasy point performance in the opener against the Celtics but even in that “down performance” he sported his normal 30% plus usage rate and now gets to take on rookie Wendell Carter Jr. and the bulls front court. The last time Embiid faced the Bulls he dropped 70 fantasy points on the back 30 points, 13 rebounds and 7 combined steals/blocks.
It may seem obvious to simply lock in the two best players here and I am likely not telling you anything you did not know – but all you need to do is look back at Tuesday’s opening two game slate to see how we need to use a Stars and Scrubs build on nights like this. The leader board that night was simply a run down of the top “chalk” plays – Curry/KD/Embiid/PG13/Schroder and the winning teams were the ones that found the right value pieces to make the builds work. With that context – I am simply locking in LeBron and Embiid and moving on.
Now, I cannot sit here and say I thought Derrick Jones Jr. ($6.4K) would be a “core” play on any slate but again – it comes within the context of tonight’s Stars and Scrubs build. Jones will likely draw the start but we know enough by now with Jones that he is a starter in name only and plays bench type minutes – but he has shown 19-20 FPT upside (hitting that mark in 2 of his last 8 starts) which would give us the 3X value we want and need. The fact that Miami is on a back to back here is really what intrigues me – are they really going to run their starters another 30-35 minutes tonight just two games into the season? They may be forced to give Jones more run than they want.
Honestly, I just do not see realistic pivot plays at F/C tonight mostly because “pivoting” to guys like Whiteside, Kuzma, Ingram means you are having to move off of LeBron or Embiid and that is just not a path I see working out. Let others pivot – I will shoehorn in the stars.
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up:
Please note: This is not meant to be a Plug and Play line-up – it is for illustrative purposes only to support the analysis and picks laid out throughout this article.
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G: Damian Lillard ($16.1K)
G: Ben Simmons ($18K)
G: Rodney McGruder ($7.9K)
F/C: LeBron James ($18.8K)
F/C: Joel Embiid ($18.3K)
F/C: Derrick Jones Jr. ($6.4K)
UTIL: T.J. McConnell ($6K)
UTIL: Josh Hart ($8.5K)
Slate Overview: Much like Tuesday’s Opening Slate this feels like a spot for Stars and Scrubs where we shoe horn in the top plays and work in value around them. LeBron/Dame and Simmons/Embiid are near must plays in my opinion but that roster core limits you to only $7.2K per player on FantasyDraft, so it means going dumpster diving. The key here is to watch the Heat injury news and beat reports as this is where I see the value coming from tonight with so many bodies expected to be on the sidelines.
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