DraftKings CFB picks October 19: Stack the Boise offense

SAN DIEGO, CA – OCTOBER 12: Donald Hammond #5 of the Air Force Falcons runs with the ball in the 1st half against the San Diego State Aztecs at SDCCU Stadium on October 12, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images) /

DraftKings CFB picks October 19: Stack the Boise offense

There are only two games for our DraftKings Friday night, but there promises to be some fireworks out there with Boise State’s offense and Colorado State’s “defense.”

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Last Friday, my running backs did very well, but the shoddy QB play and Donald Hammond leaving the game for Air Force dropped me below the cash line.

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DENVER, CO – AUGUST 31: Defensive lineman Mustafa Johnson #34 of the Colorado Buffaloes and nose tackle Javier Edwards #33 of the Colorado Buffaloes rush quarterback K.J. Carta-Samuels #1 of the Colorado State Rams in the first quarter at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on August 31, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Joe Mahoney/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Brett Rypien ($10,500): Rypien has slowed since a fast start, but Colorado State’s defense has been torched by quarterbacks all season long. The Rams’ defense is almost the worst overall in FBS. The Broncos are going to have a heyday here. The only thing giving me pause to using Rypien is the fact that he may be done after 2.5 to 3 quarters. Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me if he hit value in that time anyway.

Middle Tier:

Isaiah Sanders ($8,700): I understand people wanting to take a shot with Sanders here. I really do. He will play the entire game, and the UNLV defense has been pretty terrible this year. However, Sanders only has double digit DraftKings points twice in six games, five of which he played at least half the game. His high water mark is 16.8 DraftKings points. That isn’t even 2x value! I know the UNLV defense is bad, but if you are willing to pay this much for Sanders, just free up the extra $1,800 for Rypien.

Bargain Shoppers:

K.J. Carta-Samuels ($6,600): I don’t get this pricing. K.J. is priced like he is playing a strong defense. He’s not. Boise is allowing 201 passing yards per game, which is not abnormally high, but with an offense like Colorado State that throws more than usual, a 300 yard day for K.J. is a given. I love that at this price! The Rams will be playing from behind the whole game. Carta-Samuels will likely top 40 pass attempts. I don’t really care that Colorado State is going to lose badly. I do care that they are going to try to keep up.

Max Gilliam ($5,900): The Rebs don’t expect Gilliam to be Armani Rogers. The fans shouldn’t either. Gilliam had a strong performance against Utah State last week. Surprisingly, Air Force is allowing 232.2 passing yards per game. There is potential for Gilliam here since UNLV will likely be playing from behind again. He could come close to 4x value.

BOISE, ID – OCTOBER 6: Running back Alexander Mattison #22 of the Boise State Broncos bursts into the end zone during first half action against the San Diego State Aztecs on October 6, 2018 at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. (Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Alexander Mattison ($8,100): This one makes me nervous. Mattison has only topped 100 rushing yards once (against UConn) this year despite topping 20 carries in three of six games. Mattison is only averaging 2.8 yards per carry on 69 carries over the last three games. The Rams are allowing 204 rushing yards per game, which is pretty awful. However, I haven’t seen anything from Mattison that says he is going to come through with the type of performance to make him worth this price.

Middle Tier:

Izzy Matthews ($6,400): If you are even reading this paragraph, you are already resigned to knowing that the Rams aren’t really a running team. Even worse, Matthews has only scored twice in six games. Despite all the red flags with Mattison, I think I would rather pay up for him since Boise is allowing half the rushing yards per game that Colorado State is.

Bargain Shoppers:

Kadin Remsberg ($4,800): Sanders probably carries the ball more than Hammond did, which could sap the value of the Air Force backfield. However, I think most of that last week was the Aztec defense. UNLV is a decent run defense, but how decent are they after defending 70 running plays? There is decent value for any Air Force backs tonight.

Cole Fagan ($4,500): What? A fullback? Well, not your typical fullback. Fagan has 84 carries on the season, and has led the Falcons in rushing twice, including last week against San Diego State. I like Lexington Thomas, but Air Force has a top 20 rushing defense. I think I would rather take a shot with a couple of Air Force backs and hope for the best.

BOISE, ID – APRIL 9: Wide receiver Sean Modster #8 of the Boise State Broncos tries to spin away from a tackle during first half action at the Boise State Broncos spring game on April 9, 2016 at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. (Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

A.J. Richardson ($7,200) or Sean Modster ($6,900): It doesn’t make a lot of sense for me to separate the two since Rypien wont. Your choice of the two will depend on what you are looking for. In cash games, I prefer Modster due to the high number of targets. In GPP’s, RIchardson has the higher upside because he has big play ability. On a two game slate, you want to stack the best passing offense you can, which is far and away Boise’s tonight. I have no issue with using both.

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Middle Tier:

Preston Williams ($6,300) or Olabisi Johnson ($5,900): I can make a case for the contrarian stack of Colorado State because they will most likely be playing from behind. However, the main reason is that their QB costs about half of what Rypien does. This is a much easier stack. As with Boise, you have the target guy and the big play guy. Williams is sometimes both. I like him as a one off, but Johnson has the ability to come up with some monsters.

John Hightower ($5,700): Hightower is the easy way to get a piece of the Boise offense, and he has the best big play ability of any of their receivers because he carries the ball on sweeps or trick plays. His targets are far less than Richardson or Modster, but his big play ability makes Hightower a GPP darling. He has scored a touchdown in four of the six games.

Bargain Shoppers:

Ronald Cleveland ($4,300): I really don’t like any Air Force receivers without Hammond under center, but I may make an exception with Cleveland. Why? He has at least six carries in every game Hammond didn’t start. That’s more than some of the running backs! Cleveland is essentially the Falcons’ feature back when they don’t have the more pass happy Hammond under center.

Darren Woods Jr ($4,000): In the two games that Gilliam has started for UNLV, Woods has eight catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns, easily making him the top receiving threat. He seems to have the rapport with Gilliam, and could wind up being a huge bargain at just $4,000.

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