College Football picks against the spread October 20, 2018

College Football picks against the spread October 20, 2018

It’s that time of week again! Time for a huge college football Saturday with 50 more FBS vs. FBS games. A few teams are off, but at least we have no games against FCS opponents from now until cupcake week!

More from College Football Odds

• Colorado football getting insane amount of bets to win 2024 National Championship
• College Football National Championship Odds on National Signing Day
• 3 college football teams that could beat Georgia in 2023 (Can Florida State break through?)
• College Football 2023 National Championship Odds (Georgia favored for three-peat)
• Best college football bowl game picks today (Best bets for Monday, January 2)

This is my favorite time of the week. The time when I get to really dive into the spread for the most accurate readings. You know you really love something when you would do it even if no one read it. Back when I first started this on a previous site, I had maybe ten views per week. I still put just as much time and effort into it.

For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. 1 means that I have little to no confidence. 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I went 400-75 last season and ended up with 31 points in my point bank. I am aiming for 55% this year. It’s harder than it looks! Another solid week kept me above .500 on the season at 185-179 overall. What I have learned over the last two weeks is that you should go big on my one and two point bets and leave the fours and fives alone…..

As we all well know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only! I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I can’t have that on my conscious.

Without further delay, we get to the meat of week 8!

(6)Michigan(-7.5) at (24)Michigan State(5):

I realize this is a road game, but Michigan is beating teams better than Michigan State by pretty large margins. How much is a rivalry worth? What about the hangover from a big Sparty win? I’m going Michigan by double digits. Michigan State really shouldn’t have won last week. They can’t get lucky forever.

(9)Oklahoma(-7.5) at TCU(3):

Oklahoma has not lost back to back regular season games since 1999. That trend isn’t going to stop here. I’m excited about the defense because I don’t really think they can be much worse than they were against Texas. TCU just doesn’t have the offense to keep up. Sooners by 14 or so.

Maryland at (19)Iowa(-9.5)(5):

What changed? Stanley’s huge day wasn’t all a byproduct of an awful defense. Give the guy some credit! The line opened at 13.5, and should have stayed there. Iowa wins this by quite a bit more than 10.

(20)Cincinnati at Temple(-3.5)(2)

This is one of those games that I’m really looking forward to. Anthony Russo has picked up Temple by the bootstraps and made them respectable. Cincinnati has one of the best defenses outside of a power five school. I’m not sure that Cincy has the offense to win this, but that defense is really going to make Temple work for it. I’ll say Temple by a late field goal, so give me the Bearcats!

Illinois at (23)Wisconsin(-24.5)(3):

There’s no better way to recover from a beating that by delivering one to someone else. Give me the Badgers.

Buffalo(-1.5) at Toledo(5):

Hello cash cow…….er…….Bull! I got you here! Buffalo by a lot thanks to Tyree Jackson.

Tulsa at Arkansas(-6.5)(3):

Two weeks ago I would have went big on this with Tulsa. Arkansas looked pretty good last week, but they are likely going to be without Ty Storey. This is still a team that got blasted by North Texas at home about a month ago. I’m taking Tulsa. They may not win, but it stays within four.

Auburn(-3.5) at Mississippi(2):

Oh, neither of you are ranked, huh? Back to 11am exile with the both of yous! This Auburn offense is an exercise in ineptitude. Ole Miss is going to get their yards, and probably enough points to at least come close to winning this outright. I’ll take Ole Miss. Auburn can’t even take care of the ball anymore.

Northwestern(-20.5) at Rutgers(5):

It doesn’t matter who it is or how bad the offense has looked. I’m going big on any team that plays Rutgers. They are the worst team in a power five, and may even be worse than UConn.

Miami(OH) at Army(-7.5)(3):

This is going to be a fight for Army, but I still don’t really see Miami keeping it under 10. Give me Army.

North Carolina at Syracuse(-10.5)(3):

The Tarheels defense is looking better, but I don’t really see how they keep it close against this offense. Syracuse pulls away in the second half.

Virginia at Duke(-7.5)(4):

Did they legalize marijuana in Vegas? This looks backwards. I’ll take the Hoos straight up.

Bowling Green at Ohio(-16.5)(1):

I like Ohio, but I don’t like this line. The Falcons are playing better lately, but I don’t think I can go against Ohio at home. I’ll take the Bobcats with very little confidence.

Utah State(-14.5) at Wyoming(2):

I can’t go against this Utah State offense right now. They are really humming, and Wyoming got bulldozed by Fresno last week. I don’t like the half, but I still say Aggies cover. They’re used to this altitude thing in Provo.

Florida Atlantic(-2.5) at Marshall(3):

I don’t know that I’m all that crazy about Marshall regardless of the status of Isaiah Green. Marshall can’t stop Devin Singletary. I’ll take the Owls.

Charlotte at Middle Tennessee State(-16.5)(2):

Okay Charlotte. You win. You get my vote. Don’t screw it up!

Eastern Michigan(-3.5) at Ball State(3):

This is another line that looks backwards. The Ball State defense has some issues, but I’m a believer in that offense. Give me the Fighting Lettermans!

Western Michigan(-4.5) at Central Michigan(1):

This is a rivalry. All bets are off for me. The Broncos are the better team, but I’m not sure they win this by a TD on the road. I’ll take the Chippewas. WMU wins, but doesn’t cover.

(1)Alabama(-28.5) at Tennessee(4):

Beating one bumbling mess of an offense does not a good team make. Bama is going to destroy Tennessee in what is little more than a road practice attended by 110,000 people wearing Orange.

(16)North Carolina State at Clemson(-17.5)(3):

Clemson has only lost twice in the last 16 games when involved in a ranked vs. ranked showdown. Both of those were to Alabama. Clemson isn’t going to lose this at home, but the Wolfpack always seem to play them tough. They aren’t covering this mammoth. Give me NC State.

Colorado at (15)Washington(-17.5)(2):

I’m not sure Washington can cover anyone by this line right now. They are battered and bruised and the offense really hasn’t looked that good all year. I’ll take the Ralphies.

(18)Penn State(-14.5) at Indiana(3):

The Hoosiers got smoked by a running team through the air last weekend. If McSorley gets to pass here, it will happen again. Give me Penn State.

Coastal Carolina at Massachusetts(-3.5)(1):

This UMass defense is far worse than anything the Chanticleers could conjure up. Give me Coastal Carolina straight up.

Houston(-11.5) at Navy(2):

I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Houston offense, but I have zero confidence in Navy right now. I’ll go with the Cougars.

SMU at Tulane(-7.5)(2)

Tulane has been a bear at home, but SMU has made a habit in hanging around in games they shouldn’t. Tulane is going to have problems pushing this past one score, but I’ll say they can do it at home. Give me the Wave.

Akron(-4.5) at Kent State(3):

This looks a little low here. Woody Barrett and Justin Rankin are good players, but so is Kato Nelson. That and the Akron defense is better. Zips by double digits.

Louisiana at Appalachian State(-25.5)(1):

Wow, that’s a lot. App State is the class of the Sun Belt, but they are also more methodical than explosive. This game wont be in question, but Appalachian wont cover either. I’ll take the Cajuns.

UTEP at Louisiana Tech(-23.5)(2):

UTEP hasn’t been covered in a month, but I’m pretty sure that changes here thanks to J’Mar Smith. Give me the Bulldogs.

Wake Forest at Florida State(-9.5)(2):

Keep dreaming. FSU isn’t covering anyone. Give me Wake.

Minnesota at Nebraska(-5.5)(2):

Muhammad Ibrahim ran for well over 100 yards on Ohio State, one of the best defenses in the conference. What is he going to do to one of the worst? Nebraska might win their first game, but they aren’t covering this. Give me the Gophers.

Kansas at Texas Tech(-17.5)(2):

This is about a half point too high. Kansas is pesky and has the offense to keep up for a while. They aren’t getting buried like they used to. Tech wins, but doesn’t cover. This offense is somewhat less explosive without Allen Bowman.

Memphis at Missouri(-9.5)(2):

Missouri’s defense is pretty bad, but not their run defense. Can Memphis throw enough to keep up here? I have my doubts. I’ll go Missouri at home.

California(-7.5) at Oregon State(1):

Ugh…..yuck. Neither team has looked good on either side of the ball. Cal is better, but by how much? Double digits? Doubtful. Give me the Beavers, I guess.

Georgia Southern(-10.5) at New Mexico State(1):

The Aggies looked good at home in beating Liberty. They may win this one outright too. I’ll take the Aggies.

(22)Mississippi State at (5)LSU(-6.5)(3):

Something tells me the Bulldogs are only ranked because they are in the SEC. Their signature win is against an exposed Auburn team. I’ll take LSU by double digits.

(10)Central Florida(-21.5) at East Carolina(1):

UCF looks bored. They are fully capable of covering this, but Memphis was exposing their defense before the skies opener and neither team could hang on during the slog. ECU probably isn’t good enough to keep this close, but the way UCF is playing right now, they may just do it anyway. The smarter money is on UCF, but I have little confidence in it.

Connecticut at (21)South Florida(-32.5)(2):

Oh wow. Wow. That’s a ton for an offense that isn’t all that explosive. That said, UConn is giving up an average of 658 yards of offense per game. PER GAME. I have to go USF, right? Probably. Give me the Bulls.

UTSA at Southern Mississippi(-16.5)(2):

Well, the Roadrunners got shut out by UAB at home last week. This is one of the few instances where I will take Southern Miss and feel somewhat good about it.

Texas State at Louisiana-Monroe(-10.5)(2):

This is nothing to get excited about. The Warhawks looked better than bad last week. Picking these teams, that’s good enough. I’ll go Monroe.

(2)Ohio State(-12.5) at Purdue(2):

This has the looks of a trap for the Buckeyes. This Purdue offense is pretty explosive. The Buckeyes are giving up more chunk plays than in recent years. Usually when Ohio State looks vulnerable, they come out and silence all doubters with authority. But this just feels different. I had the feeling last week and Iowa State knocked off West Virginia. I’m not saying Purdue is going to win, but I think they keep it close. I’ll take Purdue.

(12)Oregon at (25)Washington State(-2.5)(2):

This is what the Cougars have been waiting for. 217 weeks of football. No College Gameday. It’s here, and if there is ever must-see TV at 5am Pacific, this is it. This is all lining up for a Wazzu win, but I will tell you that when the stakes get this high, Mike Leach usually doesn’t make the leap. This is different though. I’ll take the Cougars!

Vanderbilt at (14)Kentucky(-12.5)(2):

A&M provided a blueprint on how to beat the Wildcats, and Vandy’s defense is probably good enough to make it work for them. I don’t think Vandy wins outright, but I would be kind of surprised if Kentucky covers.

Fresno State(-13.5) at New Mexico(4):

Why is this line falling? This Fresno defense is looking really good. So is the offense. Fresno wins big!

Rice at Florida International(-23.5)(1):

Uh…..okay. Man, Rice is terrible. This is a ton of points, but I have zero confidence in Rice. I guess that means I have one in FIU.

North Texas at UAB(-1.5)(2):

I’m a sucker for that North Texas offense, but you know what? UAB has been good at home, and UNT isn’t moving the ball all that well. I’m going to change it up. Give me the Blazers.

Old Dominion at Western Kentucky(-4.5)(1):

This meeting of underachievers anonymous is one I really don’t want to pick. The Monarchs can tell stories of their one bout of overachieving early this year when they beat Virginia Tech at home as the seconds tick off of another loss. Give me the Hilltoppers.

USC at Utah(-6.5)(3):

I don’t know that the Trojans have faced a defense this strong yet, and it’s on the road. I like Utah by double digits.

Arizona at UCLA(-9.5)(5):

Arizona can’t stop anyone, and they are without Khalil Tate. This gets ugly fast. UCLA by at least 20, and keep in mind that this offense isn’t very explosive.

San Jose State at San Diego State(-27.5)(2): 

Don’t get me wrong. San Jose State is bad. But San Diego State isn’t really built to cover spreads like this. Army throttled the Spartans by seven touchdowns last week, but they are far more explosive than the Aztecs. I’ll take the Spartans.

Nevada at Hawaii(-3.5)(1):

Nevada hung with Boise last week. What does that count for? Nothing! Give me Hawaii!

We have another big slate with 54 games this week. I ended up betting more than last week overall, especially in the early games. Overall, I ended up with a season high 11 one pointers, 22 two pointers, 13 three pointers, only three four pointers, but a season high five five point picks. Let’s come out ahead this week!