NBA DFS Stack Attack – Saturday October 20
By Joe Metz
Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in NBA DFS with the Stack Attack!
What’s up NBA DFSers! This is my first NBA article of the season and while I cannot play NBA DFS (due to job restrictions working in the NBA), I love to dive into the stats behind the players and give advice, as it makes watch the games much more interesting.
With that being said, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.
In this article, I will highlight the top overall game stack of the slate followed by a secondary game stack and a quick list of value stacks.
Top Game Stack – Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers (234.5 O/U)
When looking for the top game stack, it’s only right to start by looking at the games with the highest over/unders. Today, that is the HOU vs LAL game as Houston is implied to score 119 points to the Lakers’ 115.5. Not only do the high team totals entice stacking, but the 3.5-point spread indicates that this game should stay close until the end, meaning starters will get as much run as they can handle.
This is a very different Lakers’ team than we saw a year ago, but after their first game, it’s rather clear that they’ll still push the tempo. After ranking 3rd in the NBA in pace last season (102.6 possessions per game), they are tied for 1st in the league after their first game this year (114.3 possessions per game).
With the Lakers’ up-tempo offense and the Rockets willingness to fire away early in the shot clock, this is a prime spot to load up on both sides of the ball starting with James Harden ($11.6k FD / $11.3k DK) who I expect to be a popular option. LeBron James ($11.7k FD / $10.7k DK) makes for a better play on DraftKings with his $600 savings over Harden, but is a great piece to differentiate your FanDuel lineup while pivoting off of Harden.
Rajon Rondo ($4.7k FD / $6.0k DK) makes for one of my favorite secondary pieces of this game on FanDuel as he comes in criminally under-priced for his role in the offense. He was able to log a 13-11 double-double in 31 minutes against the Blazers. Chris Paul is an elite defender, but Rondo logs the majority of his production in peripheral categories so we don’t need to worry about the individual matchup as much here. The other Laker that I would have my eyes on is Josh Hart ($4.3k FD / $4.9k DK). He logged 27 minutes off of the bench last game and scored 20 points while proving he’s carved out a significant role in the rotation. If you take the flyer on him on FD given his price and he craps the bed, you at least have a chance at his score being dropped.
On the Rockets’ side of the ball, Chris Paul ($8.8k FD / $8.8k DK) makes for an intriguing GPP play in a pace-up game at what I expect to be virtually no ownership while Clint Capela ($7.0k FD / $6.6k DK) is in the same boat at a discount compared to what we saw him priced at last season while JaVale McGee is not what I would consider to be a menacing defender.
Secondary NBA DFS Game Stack – Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets (224 O/U)
While it’s hard to top the Rockets/Lakers game from a sheer entertainment standpoint, the Suns/Nuggets game could be just as exciting. These are two young high-octane offenses in what should be an absolute shootout. Currently, the Nuggets are the 10-point favorite implied for 117 points while the Suns are sitting at 107.
The centerpiece of this game for me is Nikola Jokic ($9.8k FD / $9.5k DK). During his breakout 2017-18 season, he averaged 18.5 points, 10.7 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.2 steals per game, proving to me arguably the most all-around center in the NBA. In his first game of the 2018-19 season, he put up a 21/8/5/1/1 stat line, picking up right where he left off. DeAndre Ayton is a massive upgrade at center for the Suns, but I see no way in which Jokic doesn’t pick the rookie apart, as he’s way too versatile for Ayton to shut down, especially since he is nursing an ankle injury.
Piggy-backing off of Jokic, another play on the Nuggets that should be locked into FanDuel lineups is Jamal Murray ($6.0k FD / $6.3k DK). He’s ridiculously under-priced after a lousy season opener (shot 3-12) but with the shot volume, minutes (30+ per game) and matchup (Devin Booker), he looks like a free square in this game tonight.
On the Suns side, Devin Booker ($8.7k FD / $8.3k DK) is the obvious top choice. He makes a better play on DraftKings in my eyes as Harden should be locked into your SG1 spot on FanDuel. The rest of the Suns come at nice discounts, my favorite secondary-Sun being Josh Jackson ($5.9k FD / $5.3k DK). He logged 28 minutes in the opener off the bench and should lead the 2nd unit for the Suns throughout the season with his elite scoring ability. He also has the ability to crash the glass and contribute in other peripheral areas, heightening his value.
Top NBA DFS Value Stacks
Miami Heat
The Heat have already ruled out James Johnson, Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow for tonight’s game against the Hornets while Wayne Ellington is doubtful. This leaves a TON of open minutes on the wing that I expect Rodney McGruder ($3.5k FD / $4.4k DK) and Derrick Jones Jr. ($3.5k FD / $3.6k DK) to soak up. McGruder specifically has seen over 30 minutes in both of the Heat’s games, averaging 14 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1 block per game. For minimum price, he’s the ideal punt and you might not even end up dropping his score on FanDuel. Jones Jr. saw 23 minutes last game and played uber-efficiently, scoring 17 points and grabbing 5 rebounds. He’s a great punt on both FD and DK to free up some salary.
Chicago Bulls
Another injury-ravished team is the Bulls. With Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine out, there have been minutes to go around for Cameron Payne ($4.0k FD / $3.9k DK) and Antonio Blakeney ($3.6k FD / $3.5k DK). Payne drew the start last game but was rather underwhelming, while Blakeney played 30 minutes and posted 15 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists, proving to be a viable punt across both sites. Another value play from the Bulls is PF Bobby Portis ($5.9k FD / $6.3k DK). After beating Jabari Parker out for the starting PF spot, he recorded a 20-point, 11-rebound double-double in 33 minutes against the Sixers last game. He doesn’t have an easy matchup with Blake Griffin tonight, but it’s hard to argue with his price on FanDuel.
Next. NBA DFS Picks and Pivots. dark