DraftKings NBA Picks October 21: Use Adams with Russ out

ORLANDO, FL – OCTOBER 17: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic looks to make a pass against Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat during the game at Amway Center on October 17, 2018 in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks October 21: Use Adams with Russ out

The NBA is a little light today on DraftKings with only four games. Not to worry though, they let us get most of the enormity of the NFL out of the way first. The first NBA tip isn’t until 6pm Eastern. DraftKings at least made the right move by putting them all in one tournament instead of splitting it even further like they did so often in baseball.

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Stephen Curry ($10,000): Purchasers of Curry stock in the Warriors’ first two games have not been disappointed. Curry has 58.5 and 52.5 DraftKings points in those two games. I really don’t seen Denver slowing him down much, if at all. Expect another game in the 50’s for Curry tonight.

Chris Paul ($8,300): So many things have happened between these two teams since Paul’s departure that I think the revenge narrative is still alive and well here. Paul could wind up being underpriced. The Rockets did play last night, but it’s not your typical back to back since they are in the same city and same building for both of these games. Paul was huge last night against the Lakers, and could be here as well. Update: Paul is likely to be suspended soon. He may appeal, but keep an eye on the news throughout the day.

Honorable Mention:

Dennis Schroder ($7.200): The Westbrook saga continues. He continues to ramp up work, but my take on this is the same that it was earlier this week. If Westbrook were really that close to ready, he would be out there. I would imagine that Westbrook misses tonight’s game, but he will likely be back at some point next week. That leaves Schroder in a position to have another strong game. His consistency is nothing to write home about, but Sacramento should be easier to handle than the Clippers.

De’Aaron Fox ($6,600): Fox has started off the season with a bang so far, racking up 74.75 DraftKings points in two outings. It wont be easy against the Thunder, but with Fox playing the way he is at the price he is, it’s hard to ignore the upside. I may even like Fox more if Westbrook does play, as strange as it sounds.

Dark Horses:

Trae Young ($6,100): Young provided a microcosm of what his season is going to be like in the first two games. There is going to be a lot of inconsistencies in his point totals on any given night. It was like that in his year of college, and it will be here. However, I think there are going to be more good than bad nights. Young racked up 40.5 DraftKings points on Memphis on Friday. He is in line for another strong performance against Cleveland.

Jamal Murray ($5,800): Murray was a complete dud in the opener, but he rebounded in a big way against Phoenix. The Warriors like to speed up the game, which is fine with the Nuggets. They’ll run with them, which leaves Murray with considerable upside.

My pick: Murray(PG); Fox(PG), Young(G), Murray(UTIL)

LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 20: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets reacts to his three pointer late in the game leading to a 124-115 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on October 20, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

James Harden ($11,200): Harden has been over 50 and under 60 DraftKings points in his two games. He’s not going to blow value away at this price unless……well…….unless his equally famous backcourt mate talks trash and sticks his finger in the face of his longtime nemesis.

Watch CP3 and Rondo. #Lakers #Rockets https://t.co/WtkXu1JV7r
— Matt Rodewald (@Matt_Rodewald) October 21, 2018

Harden will enjoy a nice uptick in value when Chris Paul gets suspended. If that’s tonight, it is harder to find value on a small slate, but we need to do so when Paul serves his suspension.

Honorable Mention:

Buddy Hield ($5,700): Hield has produced some good numbers for the price as a starter over the first two games of the season. The depth of the Kings backcourt still worries me some, but so long as Hield is starting, he is worth a look in GPP formats. We have seen the upside shine through a few times in his time in the league. It looks like it may be becoming more consistent now. We will see. It’s only two games.

Gary Harris ($5,500): The Nuggets did alleviate some of the backcourt crowding by allowing Wilson Chandler to walk. So far, Harris has capitalized on his consistent minutes by producing across the board, not just in points. Harris is a strong play at this price against the Warriors.

Dark Horses:

Lou Williams ($5,300): This isn’t necessarily about what Williams has done so far. It’s about what Williams is capable of compared to others at this price. Gordon is a bench scorer and Clarkson/Bazemore are high risk plays. If LouWill starts getting his shot to fall, he is going to destroy value at this price, and soon.

Jordan Clarkson ($5,000): Clarkson is mostly a bench scorer, and the depth of the Cleveland backcourt is somewhat concerning. However, Clarkson is as locked in his role as anyone but George Hill. You can tell exactly how many minutes Clarkson will get before tipoff. Never underestimate that when bargain hunting.

My pick: Harris(SG), Williams(G); Hield(SG)

SALT LAKE CITY, UT – OCTOBER 19: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors brings the ball up court in the first half of a NBA game against the Utah Jazz at Vivint Smart Home Arena on October 19, 2018 in Salt Lake City, Utah. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gene Sweeney Jr./Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kevin Durant ($10,200): Golden State’s first two games have been dominated by Curry and KD. Not even Thompson can crack this brotherhood right now. As long as this continues, I’m not afraid to build with both in the lineup. It seems as though the Warriors are trying to convince Durant to stay by saying look…do what you want…..we’ll follow. Until this changes, both are worth playing.

Paul George ($8,400): Those of us that have ridden PG13 and Schroder have to be pretty disappointed right now on how things have gone without Westbrook. The team itself has played pretty well, but it has not been those two dominating like many though. Of course, if we fall off of this wagon with Russ out again, it will likely be the day George goes off. I will admit that I am very tempted to go with the more sure thing of the Warriors. Did I really just say that?

Honorable Mention:

Taurean Prince ($6,700): The Hawks have something good in Prince, but since the team around him isn’t all that good, many don’t take notice. Prince has 79.5 DraftKings points in the two games so far. He is more than worth the price. Cleveland provides a little tougher match than what he has had to deal with so far, but Prince is the focal point of this offense right now, and probably the rest of the season.

Cedi Osman ($6,000): LeBron who? Osman has been a monster for the price, racking up over 40 DraftKings points in each of the first two games. Osman has produced strong all around numbers in his first two games as a starter. Now if only he could play the point, bang with the bigs, dominate the boards, rub elbows with Warren Buffett and hold Cleveland hostage with his free agent decision, Osman would be one of the biggest superstars of his generation.

Dark Horse:

Kent Bazemore ($4,800): Bazemore has played second fiddle to Prince and stayed fine with it. He still sees good minutes off the bench, and we all know that if Bazemore gets hot, he can put up some points in a hurry. Bazemore was recently voted the Hawk most likely to be traded. We saw a trade in October last year, so it’s possible. Expect Bazemore to do well in his role, but it also puts a firm cap on his upside.

My pick: Prince(SF), Osman(F); Osman(SF)

LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 19: Tobias Harris #34 of the Los Angeles Clippers scores a basket over Terrance Ferguson #23 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first half of a basketball game at Staples Center on October 19, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kevin Love ($8,500): Love is still a matchup play only, but he has another superb matchup here with the Hawks. He dominated his former team for 62.75 DraftKings points after a pedestrian showing against the Raptors in the opener. Expect more of the former than the latter against a Hawks team that was weak on the interior even with Dedmon.

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris ($7,700): Harris has strapped the Clippers to his back and carried them so far. He has 90 DraftKings points in two games. With Ariza now in Arizona, the Rockets no longer dominate defensively against forwards. Expect Harris to feast on Melo here.

Paul Millsap ($6,400): Would you buy Millsap if I told you that you were going to get 35.5 DraftKings points from him tonight? That has been his exact total in the first two games, so it stands to reason that Millsap will be at or very near that total tonight.

Dark Horses:

Danilo Gallinari ($5,900): Gallinari and Harris have played very well together so far, and that should be a trend that continues for the near future. Gallinari is still mostly dependent on scoring, but that is something that the Clippers sorely need right now. Gallo is going to continue being a high volume shooter, which should leave his floor pretty safe.

Marvin Bagley III ($5,100): Bagley put up a strong performance against the Pelicans after a dud against Utah in the opener. There’s no shame in that. Veterans still struggle against the Jazz. We all want to use that shiny rookie before his price goes nuts, but that’s not always a good idea. Bagley could have another nice one against Oklahoma City. Their PF position is in flux with Melo out of the picture, so this could be a spot to take a shot on Bagley.

My pick: N/A; Harris(PF), Bagley(F)

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 24: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets poses for a portrait during the Denver Nuggets Media Day at the Pepsi Center on September 24, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images) /

Center

Best Bet:

Nikola Jokic ($9,200): Jokic just throttled the Suns for a season high for an individual player with 82.5 DraftKings points last night. He didn’t even miss a shot from the floor! What will he do for an encore? Don’t rule out another strong showing against the Warriors. Jokic is plenty athletic enough to keep up with the Warriors, and they don’t really have the size to neutralize unless they want to use KD on him (they don’t). Jokic isn’t going to top 80 again, but he could flirt with 60.

Honorable Mention:

Steven Adams ($7,000): Adams has been the one that has picked up most of the slack with Westbrook out, topping 40 DraftKings points in each of the first two games. With Russ likely out again, Adams is the only Thunder player that I consider a must-play tonight. George and Schroder are worth a look, but I’ll ride the consistency of Adams first.

Clint Capela ($6,200): Capela put up his customary double double against the Lakers last night. There was actually a basketball game that preceded the main even – Rondo vs. Paul. With Jordan out of Clipperland, Capela is getting another double double before he leaves L.A.

Dark Horses:

Tristan Thompson ($5,200): You would have never known it last year, but Thompson can still score. The Cavs need him to this year. Thompson will likely cede the job to Larry Nance once he is healthy, but we still get another value game or two out of Tristan. We may as well take advantage!

Damian Jones ($3,800): As with Zaza last year, Jones is pretty much a starter in name only. The Warriors may need him a little more to try and deal with Jokic here, but he isn’t going to be able to do any more than anyone else against him. This has the potential for a bust game for Jones, but the price is low enough that I’m still going to kick the tires.

My pick: Thompson(PF), Jokic(C), Capela(UTIL); Adams(C)

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