NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 7 (Sun.-Mon.)
Welcome to the Week 7 edition of the NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where there may be some mis-priced players across Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft in favorable Fantasy Football match-ups.
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.
- These players are but a sampling of who I feel are some of the best values at each position that week. However, with so many skills players in the NFL, there are certainly others worth considering, especially as late-breaking injury news comes out Sunday morning. Therefore, feel free to utilize this piece as a good guide for where some of the most prominent value lies, but not as an exhaustive list.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out-of-the-way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 7 slates!
NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 7 Quarterbacks (Sun.-Mon.)
Joe Flacco, BAL vs. NO- Yahoo ($30)/ FanDuel ($7,500)/ DraftKings ($5,400)/ FantasyDraft ($10,600)
Flacco has undergone a rare mid-to-late-career makeover this season, generating his best YPA (6.8) since the 2015 season while already compiling 1,788 yards in six games. That puts him well more than halfway to his 2017 total of 3,141 yards over a full 16 games. One of the most impressive aspects of his performance thus far this season has been how quickly he’s developed chemistry with a brand-new group of receivers — Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead.
Flacco is averaging over 40 attempts per game this season, and he should continue airing it out often versus a Saints defense that’s allowed the third-highest number of DraftKings points (27.1) and FanDuel points (25.5) per contest to quarterbacks despite only playing five games. New Orleans has also allowed 11 touchdown passes while only snagging a pair of interceptions, and their highly competent offense should force the Ravens to keep their foot on the gas.
Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. NE- Yahoo ($26)/ FanDuel ($7,500)/ DraftKings ($5,600)/ FantasyDraft ($11,200)
There were naturally some skeptics after Trubisky’s six-touchdown outlier against the Buccaneers in Week 4, but to the young quarterback’s credit, he came right back with a 316-yard, three-touchdown effort in an overtime loss to the Dolphins last Sunday. Trubisky now has an eye-popping 9:1 TD:INT over that two-game stretch, as coach Matt Nagy has clearly opened up the playbook and allowed him to take more shots downfield to the likes of speedster Taylor Gabriel.
Week 7 brings an intriguing showdown with Tom Brady and the Patriots. This will be a formidable test for the Bears as a whole, but Trubisky’s individual matchup isn’t a poor one by any stretch. New England’s defense has been willing to yield plenty of production between the 20s, leading to them allowing the eighth-most DraftKings points (22.6) and FanDuel points (20.8) per game to quarterbacks. The Pats are also tied with several teams for second-most touchdown passes allowed (15), and the 101 rush yards they’ve yielded to the position is the seventh-highest in the NFL. The latter number is especially relevant when considering Trubisky, factoring in his ability to make plays with his legs.
C.J. Beathard, SF vs. LAR- Yahoo ($22)/ FanDuel ($6,400)/ DraftKings ($4,800)/ FantasyDraft ($10,500)
Speaking of second-year quarterbacks on the way up, Beathard has looked like a markedly different player thus far as compared to his rookie campaign. He too is seemingly benefiting from his head coach allowing him to be more aggressive within the scheme of the offense, as Beathard is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt after posting a 6.4 figure over seven games last season. He’s also thrown multiple touchdowns in each of his three starts, and he came within two yards of posting a pair of 300-yard efforts over that span.
He’ll likely need more of the same Sunday versus the prolific Rams offense, which has forced opposing quarterbacks to remain aggressive this season in an attempt to keep up. Los Angeles has already allowed 10 touchdown passes and both a 400- and 300-yard passing day in two of their last three games to Kirk Cousins and Case Keenum, respectively. They also yielded three touchdown passes to Russell Wilson in between that pair of contests, lending credence to the notion that Beathard can provide a solid return on his modest price in Week 7.
NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 7 Running Backs (Sun.-Mon.)
LeSean McCoy, BUF at IND- Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($6,200)/ DraftKings ($5,600)/ FantasyDraft ($12,400)
It seems equally odd for McCoy to be cheap enough to be considered a bargain play and to be recommending a member of the Buffalo Bills offense, but such is the case on both counts in Week 7. The former Pro Bowler has finally started to see some solid usage in the last two games, logging a combined 40 rushing attempts and five catches on eight targets. That’s led to 202 total yards, certainly a respectable level of production given his very affordable prices across the industry.
What’s been missing for McCoy thus far this season has been touchdowns, as he’s yet to cross the goal line. However, that could change in Week 7, with veteran quarterback Derek Anderson — who knows coach Sean McDermott‘s system well from their Carolina days — hopefully serving as a stabilizing force under center. The Colts come in allowing a healthy 25.4 DraftKings points and 22.0 FanDuel points per game to running backs, which includes the fourth-most receptions (41) surrendered to the position. Given McCoy’s ability to supplement his fantasy production as a receiver out of the backfield — and a game plan that might call for plenty of safe passes from Anderson — the veteran running back shapes up as an intriguing Week 7 bargain.
Kerryon Johnson, DET at MIA- Yahoo ($21)/ FanDuel ($6,500)/ DraftKings ($4,500)/ FantasyDraft ($8,800)
My only concern with Johnson remains overall volume, as coach Matt Patricia continues to insist on giving the less explosive LeGarrette Blount a certain workload each game that typically includes almost all goal-line work. Accordingly, Blount has logged eight red-zone rushes this season to Johnson’s three, which has put a dent in the latter’s overall upside. However, a couple of factors particular to Week 7 boost Johnson’s prospects at a very affordable price across all four sites.
To begin with, the Dolphins check in allowing the seventh-most rushing yards (617) to running backs, along with the fifth-most DraftKings points (32.0) and FanDuel points (27.6) per game to the position. Those numbers are partly comprised of allowing the third-most receptions (43) to backs, and Johnson has already brought in 13 of 15 targets over his first six games. Additionally, with elite pass-catching back Theo Riddick (knee) already ruled out for Sunday’s contest, Johnson is likely to see extra work in the passing game according to reports, along with more snaps overall.
Ito Smith, ATL vs. NYG- Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($5,400)/ DraftKings ($3,800)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)
Another player poised to benefit from an absence in Week 7 is Smith, who’s already been coming in recent games. The rookie has scored in three straight contests, and with Devonta Freeman now out for several weeks at a minimum due to a groin injury, he could rival Tevin Coleman for a nearly equal share of backfield work. It’s also worth noting that Smith has already seen over 30 snaps in two of the last three games while logging a whopping 14 red-zone rushes, with five of those coming inside the 10, including three inside the five.
That type of goal-line usage is priceless, especially against a Giants team that’s allowed nine total touchdowns (five rushing, four receiving) to running backs over the first six games along the way to averages of 28.3 DraftKings points and 24.8 FanDuel points per game to running backs. Coleman himself is also cheap and can be considered. However, the reality is that his touches have been capped regardless of Freeman’s presence in the lineup and Smith carries significantly more touchdown equity with the way he’s deployed.
Nick Chubb, CLE at TAM– Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($4,800)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,100)
NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 7 Wide Receivers (Sun.-Mon.)
Marquise Goodwin, SF vs. LAR- Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($5,500)/ DraftKings ($4,600)/ FantasyDraft ($9,100)
As alluded to earlier in Beathard’s entry, the 49ers have been willing to attack downfield with the second-year quarterback at the controls thus far. Goodwin was a prime beneficiary in Week 6, scoring on two long throws on his way to a 126-yard night versus the Packers last Monday. Goodwin brings elite speed that should play well versus a Rams secondary that’s been increasingly vulnerable since Aquib Talib went down with an ankle injury.
Los Angeles is now tied with several teams for second-most touchdowns (10) allowed receivers on the season, which has helped lead to their defense yielding 38.7 DraftKings and 31.5 FanDuel points per game to the position. Cornerback Marcus Peters has particularly struggled with the deep ball and was partly responsible for Emmanuel Sanders‘ seven-catch, 115-yard performance last week. Goodwin brings even more speed than the veteran, making him a high-upside value option in a game that could feature plenty of scoring on both sides.
Willie Snead, BAL vs. NO- Yahoo ($20)/ FanDuel ($5,400)/ DraftKings ($4,000)/ FantasyDraft ($7,800)
All three Ravens receivers remain reasonably priced and can be considered, but I’ll highlight Snead here in an appealing matchup versus his old squad. The veteran has been seeing consistent volume from Joe Flacco, logging between six and 10 targets in all but one game this season. That’s led to reception tallies of five to seven and receiving yardage totals in excess of 50 in four of those contests, which offers solid value for his modest cost across the industry.
What’s more, Snead should have some extra motivation in Week 7 against the franchise he spent the first three seasons of his career with, and that’s allowed plenty of production to slot receivers thus far this season. Actually, the Saints have facilitated handsome returns to wideouts regardless of where they’ve lined up, as they come in tied with several teams for second-most touchdowns (10) allowed to receivers despite only playing five games, and are yielding a league-high 53.7 DraftKings and 44.1 FanDuel points per game to the position.
Jermaine Kearse, NYJ vs. MIN– Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($5,000)/ DraftKings ($4,100)/ FantasyDraft ($9,200)
Kearse is in prime position for another oversized workload the likes of which he saw in Week 6, as Quincy Enunwa (ankle) is out for Sunday’s contest, while Terrelle Pryor (groin) was released Saturday afternoon. That makes Kearse and Robby Anderson the top two wideouts in Week 7 versus a Vikings defense that’s allowed just over 12 receptions per contest to the wide receiver position, along with 35.9 DraftKings points and 28.3 FanDuel points per game.
Kearse should be able to avoid the coverage of Xavier Rhodes in the slot, and with Sam Darnold seemingly improving each week, the veteran receiver could easily pay off his bottom-of-the-barrel price on what should be a very busy afternoon. A second straight double-digit target total seems highly likely.
Taylor Gabriel, CHI vs. NE- Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($5,900)/ DraftKings ($4,700)/ FantasyDraft ($9,200)
NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 7 Tight Ends/Team Defense (Sun.-Mon.)
David Njoku, CLE at TAM- Yahoo ($18)/ FanDuel ($5,700)/ DraftKings ($4,200)/ FantasyDraft ($8,000)
Njoku is clearly a favorite of rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield, as he’s now logged 29 targets through the latter’s first three career starts. That’s led to catch totals of five, six and seven, respectively, along with 176 receiving yards and a touchdown. A matchup versus a Buccaneers defense that just fired its coordinator after another trampling in Week 6 enhances his already solid prospects, especially considering Tampa Bay has allowed 13.5 yards per catch to tight ends, along with the most DraftKings points (21.1) and FanDuel points (16.9) per game to the position.
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Austin Hooper, ATL vs. NYG- Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($5,900)/ DraftKings ($4,200)/ FantasyDraft ($8,200)
Hooper continued to come through as a value recommendation in Week 6, compiling nine catches for 71 yards and a touchdown against the just-mentioned Bucs defense. He’s seen a whopping 22 targets over the last pair of games, and he should once again enjoy a fair share of work Monday night versus a Giants team that has the secondary to funnel a certain amount of work toward the tight end. Hooper still takes a back seat to the potent wideout trio of Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley, but there’s often more than enough left over with Matt Ryan putting the ball up over 37 times a game.
Neal Sterling, NYJ vs. MIN- Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($4,500)/ DraftKings ($2,500)/ FantasyDraft ($5,000)
Buffalo Bills (at Indianapolis Colts)- Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($3,400)/ DraftKings ($2,300)/ FantasyDraft ($4,500)
Like Hooper, the Bills delivered on their Week 6 value designation, making life difficult on Deshaun Watson to the tune of seven sacks, two interceptions and a fumble recovery while holding the dynamic quarterback under 200 passing yards for the first time this season. They’ll have an opportunity to wreak more havoc in Week 7, as the Colts have already put the ball up an NFL-high 289 times. While they’ve done a fine job limiting sacks (10) on Andrew Luck, the Bills will test them, as they’ve racked up the fourth-most sacks (19) thus far. Luck is also tied with several other quarterbacks/teams for second-most interceptions thrown (eight), an indicator he’s been rushed a fair amount despite not being taken down that often.
The Bills have also allowed the third-fewest yards per game (311.7), including the third-fewest passing yards (219.2) per contest. The 92.5 rushing yards per game they’ve yielded also ranks them in the top 10, and their seven fumble recoveries ties them with the Vikings for the league lead in that category. With the Indy offense largely one-dimensional anyhow, Buffalo should have a chance to often pin their ears back and get some hits on Luck, which could certainly lead to some strip-sacks and subsequent fumbles/defensive touchdowns.