FanDuel NBA DFS GPP Breakdown – Monday, October 22

Welcome to the Monday edition of FanDuel NBA GPP Plays. I’m “Thunder Dan” and NBA DFS is “my jam” as is making bad puns.  All kidding aside, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests on FanDuel.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

I’ve been discussing the new FanDuel NBA format a lot already this season and I know some players are discouraged by having a really good score dropped if they’ve built a really good 9-player lineup. My best advice is to try to adapt your roster construction to maximize your lineup’s potential by looking for at least one or two “value plays” that are 3.5k – 4.5k.  I don’t recommend rostering a player who is not likely to play since you never know if one of your other 8 players is going to bust (like Jamal Murray last night for instance!).  Punting 1-2 roster spots has appeared to be a very viable strategy on every slate this year, it simply allows you to roster more 7k+ players with higher floors and ceilings.

"The key to winning a GPP on any given night is finding players who hit their ceilings.  5x or even 6x value is not enough. We want 7x or better from players in order to take down GPP contests"

This is a first look article, so always remember to check Twitter for injury updates, quotes from coaches about playing time, and so on as lock approaches.  Also, remember to check out all the other great free NBA DFS content here @fantasyCPR. Without any further ado, let’s get to tonight’s slate!

FanDuel NBA –  PG deepest Position on the Slate?

Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, John Wall, Kyle Lowry and Kemba Walker headline the point guard options tonight and there’s a pretty good case to be made for paying up for two elite point guards tonight.  Curry is the highest priced option at 10200 and while I’ve rostered Steph every time out this season thus far, it might be time to jump off him at this price point, especially since there are so many other solid options for less.

John Wall (9800) and Damian Lillard (10000) square off against each other and neither of them are very well-known for their defense so I like the matchup for both. You could even roster them both in a mini game-stack and hope they trade baskets and assists all night long.  Dame is a pure scorer who can get 30+ real-life points with ease any given night, while Wall relies more on assists and defensive stats to pad his totals. He’s averaging 2.5 steals and 2.5 blocks to start the year, which is a number that’s clearly not sustainable but shows us the kind of upside he has every time out.

My favorite option tonight though is Kemba Walker (8900) against the Raptors. Kemba is off to an incredible start to the year, averaging 35 real-life points per game in his first 3 games. He has a 36% usage rate and is averaging 1.36 FD points per minute. If this game stays close, it’s likely because Kemba is going off and if he’s playing 40 minutes then he’s cruising to 50+ FD points and 6x or better value.

While there are a ton of high-end options at point guard, there’s also some really good salary saving options as well. J.J. Barea costs only 4900 and has been stellar with 32.6 FD points per game in only 20.5 minutes. He’s a guy with a career 23% usage and has double-digit assists in both of his first games. The matchup with Bulls second unit should be one he can exploit again tonight.  At the same price is Fred Van Vleet, who has been steadily putting up 24.6 FD points per game over his first three games as the Raptors sixth man. With Delon Wright out again, Van Vleet is in play again against Charlotte.  Finally, Derrick Rose is only 4600 and has averaged 30 FD points over his first three games as the T-Wolves sixth man. He exploded for 47.5 in 32 minutes against Dallas when Jimmy Butler rested but played 23 and 30 minutes in his first two games. It’s clear that Coach Thibs is comfortable with him getting a lot of minutes are both guard spots for Minnesota.

FanDuel NBA: Tonight’s Shooting Guards

Jimmy Butler is the highest priced SG option tonight coming in at 9600. He should be well-rested after taking off Saturday’s game. It’s hard to argue against rostering Butler with how good he’s been in his first two games, in which he’s averaged 55.9 FD points, however, I’m not looking to spend up on him tonight since we have plenty of other high-priced options as well as a strong mid-tier.

Devin Booker is 8400 and his Suns travel to Golden State to take on the Warriors.  If the Suns stay in that game it will likely be on the back on a big performance from their star shooting guard, who is playing a lot of point guard and already has seven assists in both of his first games. He’s worth some exposure tonight as he could go off and be the highest scoring SG on the slate.

DeMar DeRozan (8200) is my favorite SG tonight as his Spurs travel to L.A. to take on the Lakers. He’s scored 28 points in each of the first two games for his new team and taken an average of 21 shots per game. He and LaMarcus Aldridge are being asked to carry the Spurs offensively and I like him a lot in what should be a pace-up game with the Lakers.

Zach Lavine got a price hike to 7600 for tonight’s matchup with Dallas, but I still think he can pay off that price tag. He’s scored 30 or more real-life points in each of the Bulls first two games and while Kris Dunn is expected back, that shouldn’t prevent Lavine from getting up shots in a game that has the potential to be very high scoring.

Josh Hart is a little pricey at 5800 for a bench player, but he’s played more minutes than the nominal starter Kenneth Caldwell-Pope in both of the first two games. With Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram being suspended tonight, Lonzo Ball and Kyle Kuzma should bump into the starting lineup and I think we see Hart and Lance Stephenson soak up a lot of the bench usage.  The ultimate punt might be Garrett Temple, who at 4100, could be a tremendous value if he could come anywhere close to the 42.8 FD points he was able to put up in 33 minutes for the Grizzlies in his last game. He scored 17 FD points in his first game, so even if we split the difference between those two outings he could get us a solid 6x value on a slate that doesn’t have a ton of value at first glance.

FanDuel NBA: A Loaded Small Forward Position

Anytime you have Giannis Antetokuonmpo, Lebron James, and Kevin Durant all on the same slate you know it’s going to be a high-scoring night in NBA DFS.  Lebron (11800) is an easy fade for me as he hasn’t shown us the 60+ FD point upside we need from him since joining the Lakers. Giannis is a much harder fade because he’s been really good so far this year and has an excellent matchup with the Knicks, however, I can’t justify paying 12200 for him.  Of the big three, I like Kevin Durant the most as his price of 10800 is easier to stomach and he has the best matchup against Phoenix in what should be a high-paced, high-scoring affair.

Kawhi Leonard is actually my favorite play at SF tonight as he’s sitting at 9800 right below the big three in pricing. Kawhi was rested in Toronto’s last game and is in a great spot against a Charlotte team that has shown it likes to play fast this season. Leonard is averaging 27.5 points and 11.5 rebounds in his first two games while only handing out 2.5 assists. The real surprise is that he’s only got one steal and zero blocks so far. He’s averaged 2.5 steals + blocks over his career and I know that 4-5 steal/block game is coming sooner or later. Players who rack up defensive stats are always going to make great tourney plays on Fanduel with defensive stats being worth 3 points each.

Some people might scoff at Joe Ingles being priced at 7100, but he’s been outstanding so far this year, doing a little bit of everything for the Jazz and scoring 22 and 27 real-life points in their first two games. He’s still too cheap for the type of 40+ FD point upside that he brings nightly.

Some cheaper options I’m considering are Trevor Ariza (5500) and Evan Turner (4000).  Ariza had one great game and one dud so far this year. The up-tempo game against the Warriors really suits his style and he could easily make good on his price tag if he knocks down a few threes and piles up the boards and steals tonight. Turner is super cheap and has shown that he can still be productive coming off the bench for Portland by averaging 10-4-5 with 1.5 steals in 22 minutes.  Turner’s ability to rebound and pass gives him a solid floor even if he’s not playing a ton of minutes.

FanDuel NBA : Tonight’s Power Forwards

The class of the power forward position tonight is LaMarcus Aldridge (8800), who happens to also be the highest priced option. No other PF is going to give you the combination of floor and ceiling that LMA will. The Lakers have been bad defensively so far, and I think Aldridge is likely to have a big night for the Spurs. If you can fit him into your builds, get some Aldridge exposure as he has massive upside as we saw in the Spurs opener when he went for 56.8 FD points.

My favorite PF player is down at 7000 where Jayson Tatum is still underpriced. Fanduel has been slow to raise Tatum’s salary, despite the fact that the young star has shown that he is primed for a huge year. Tatum has scored more than 20 points twice already in his first three games and averaged 10.6 rebounds as well.  The matchup with Orlando is a good one, and I think we see Tatum continue to assert himself as the top dog on the Celtics with another big game tonight.

At 6800 we have another exciting young player, Jaren Jackson Jr. Memphis was forced to move him into the starting lineup when JaMychal Green went down with an injury and he did not disappoint, putting up 42.4 FD points in his first career start. Tonight’s matchup with Utah might seem less than ideal at first glance, but the Jazz are playing faster this year and have given up an average of 120 points a game in their first two games. The quick price hike might keep some ownership off Jackson which is good for us. Jackson Jr. had a tremendous preseason and has already shown that he is a very capable multi-category contributor and potential DFS monster. Get in on him now before his price continues to go up.

FanDuel NBA : Centers

There are three centers that I want some exposure tonight and they’re all fairly easy to fit into your rosters with their price tags. DeAndre Jordan (8200) will face a Bulls team that has struggled mightily with centers already this season and is coming off a big 22-10 line with 5 blocks the other night against the Wolves. DJ doesn’t get a lot of possessions run for him but gets so many easy baskets in pick and roll or from offensive rebounds and putbacks.

For 100 less, Nikola Vucecic (8100) is facing Boston tonight and coming off his ridiculous 27-13-12 triple-double against the Sixers. Vuc is such a talented scorer and passer, if the Magic are going to hang with the Celtics they will need him to have a big game on the offensive end.  The offense flows through Vuc on every possession for the Magic and I love targeting the Celtics with talented big men.

Which brings me to my last center, Enes Kanter, who is fresh off a 17-15 game of his own against Boston and is averaging 20-12 this season through three games.  Kanter has an awesome matchup against the Bucks, a team that I love targeting centers against.  At only 7500, he is already at 6x value if he’s able to get his average of 42.2 FD points tonight.

FanDuel NBA – GPP Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview

Tonight is going to be another really high scoring night in DFS. With so many solid options, you’re going to be able to build a lot of teams that you really like. Remember, you can’t play everyone. It’s important to take a stand on some players and either use them or fade them.

My GPP builds are going to likely feature two higher priced point guards and then focus on filling with mid-tier targets in other positions. Shooting guard is one position I don’t mind punting and one of my small forward slots might be another good spot to look for value.

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Here’s what my first look build looks like.

PG: John Wall (9800)

PG: Kemba Walker (8900)

SG: Josh Hart (5800)

SG: Garrett Temple (4100)

SF: Joe Ingles (7100)

SF: Evan Turner (4000)

PF: Domantas Sabonis (5600)

PF: Jayson Tatum (7000)

C: Enes Kanter (7500)

I hope you enjoyed reading and as always, thanks for your feedback and comments. Hit me up on twitter @ThunderDanDFS and I’d be happy to talk plays and strategy for tonight’s slate. Good luck!