With only one game left in the MLS regular season, we look at the playoff picture and how it could change on Decision Day.
The penultimate week of the MLS regular season has concluded, so every team (except RSL) has one game remaining. There are a number of races, and some unlikely scenarios, still in play. The Sounders, with some help, could win the Western Conference. The Impact could feasibly eliminate the Crew from the playoffs. Next week’s Philadelphia-NYCFC matchup will be a winner-take-all to avoid playing D.C. United in the playoffs, unless DCU throw a wrench into things by beating Chicago.
Let’s take a look around the league:
Atlanta and the Red Bulls both win
New York beat the Union 1-0, which keeps the Supporters’ Shield race going. Atlanta did their part, surviving Chicago at home. The difference between the two remains one point, with the Five Stripes in the lead. The Red Bulls face Orlando next week and Atlanta face Toronto. A win clinches it for Atlanta. They control their own destiny.
The Red Bulls rested Daniel Royer on Sunday, though stud right-back Kemar Lawrence was out injured, so they’ll hope he’s healthy for next week. It’s possible both Miguel Almiron and Hector Villalba could remain out next week for Atlanta — neither made the bench against the Fire. Andrew Carleton could be looking at another start.
Sporting KC take control of the Western Conference
SKC beat FC Dallas 3-0 in what was arguably the most important game of the week. FCD could have gone a long way toward clinching the conference with a win, but instead Sporting have taken a two-point lead over Dallas and LAFC. There were three penalties given in that game, two of which were saved. One was scored, a late clincher for SKC.
It’s not often that KC enter the playoffs on a hot streak, but they’ve had a nice couple of weeks — they beat the still-competitive Whitecaps 4-1 midweek, and a comprehensive win over a full-strength Dallas team gives hope that they won’t yet again disappoint in the playoffs.
NYCFC continue their tailspin
NYCFC have won exactly once since Aug. 18, scoring eight goals in those nine games despite the return of David Villa. They were lifeless and disorganized in a 3-1 loss to D.C. United, which opened the door to Philadelphia stealing third-place. NYC seemed to have that spot locked up a while ago, but this collapse was entirely unexpected.
D.C., meanwhile, have been flawless. Their most important questions revolve around Paul Arriola, who has been dealing with the death of his father and missed the last couple of games. If he can regain top form, it will add another attacking dimension to a team that’s been dealing with pretty significant adversity — defender Chris Odoi-Atsem was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, and Oniel Fisher suffered a torn ACL.
Seattle and Portland pick up big wins
The Sounders survived the Dynamo in Houston, winning 3-2 on a Tyler Deric error and a pair of set-piece goals. Portland had it easier against RSL in a 3-0 victory. If the standings stay the way they are, the Sounders and Timbers will meet in the knockout round. That seems unlikely, given that Seattle are hosting San Jose next weekend. Crazier things have happened.
Real Salt Lake really, really needed a win against the Timbers, especially given that due to MLS’s odd number of teams, they will be the only club to sit out Decision Day. Had they beaten Portland, RSL would have overtaken the Timbers for fifth-place and secured a playoff berth, eliminating the Galaxy despite LA’s win over Minnesota.
Now, the Galaxy are one point behind RSL for sixth-place. Portland can’t drop below fifth. LA host the Dynamo next week with every opportunity to take a playoff spot, though a draw wouldn’t do it as RSL hold the wins tiebreaker. It will be a stressful Sunday for those at the Western Conference’s red line.
Columbus put themselves in danger of disaster
Overall, it was a good week for the Crew, as they have been Saved from relocation.
On the field, though, things didn’t go as well. Losing to Orlando City, who have been as bad as an MLS team has ever been for months, is pretty much inexcusable, and puts the Crew in peril — with just a two point lead over the Impact for sixth-place, a loss or draw puts Montreal in the playoffs. (The Impact hold that crucial wins tiebreaker.)
The Crew get to host lowly Minnesota, while Montreal have to travel to New England, so matchups favor Columbus. At some point the Crew are going to have to score some goals.
Awards
The best team in the league
I still think the New York Red Bulls have earned this title by beating Atlanta in head-to-head matchups. That win over Philly was a grind, and it shows they can get a tough result on the road over a team playing for playoff seeding. The Union seemed like they had the weapons to beat New York’s press, with midfielders playing the ball direct to the flanks.
Atlanta losing Almiron and Villalba hurts. The bottom four teams in the Eastern Conference look difficult to beat, unless Montreal manage to qualify. NYCFC still have the weapons, and Columbus lost games they shouldn’t have in the regular season last year before making their playoff run. There’s a scenario in which an injured Atlanta bow out in the conference semis. An unlikely one, but it exists.
The worst team(s) in the league
I would have put Orlando City SC here, but their win over Columbus makes that difficult. Orlando remain an absolute disaster of a franchise and are pretty easily the worst-run club in the league. Not to be overly harsh, but everyone running that team needs to be fired into the sun.
San Jose and Colorado, who have long alternated shifts in this spot, played to an exceedingly dull and meaningless 0-0 draw. Here’s hoping Chris Wondolowski breaks the goal record next week.
Random result of the week
The answer is clearly the Orlando win over Columbus. Regardless of the Crew’s propensity to go dry in attack and lose to inferior teams, that was a shocking result.
Honorable mention goes to the Whitecaps stealing a draw against LAFC. Vancouver are eliminated, but that was a nice result.
Predictable result of the week
It has to be the San Jose-Colorado 0-0 draw, which went exactly as everyone expected. There really isn’t anything to say about that game.