DraftKings NBA Picks October 23: Ride the Detroit frontcourt

PHOENIX, AZ – OCTOBER 05: Jusuf Nurkic #27 of the Portland Trail Blazers flexes after drawing a foul against the Phoenix Suns during the second half of the NBA preseason game at Talking Stick Resort Arena on October 5, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) DraftKings NBA /

DraftKings NBA Picks October 23: Ride the Detroit frontcourt

There are only three games on tonight’s DraftKings NBA slate which really limits our options. There are still some stars out though with the Sixers, Pelicans, and Pistons in action. Which star you build around will likely have a huge impact on whether you cash or not. This isn’t one of those light slates where you can still play anyone you want no matter their salary.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bet:

Ben Simmons ($9,600): I’m kind of leaning towards playing Simmons so long as he plays. My thinking is that if Philly feels good enough to let him out there, he is going to be at 100%, or very close to it. The Sixers have had no issues holding out their youngsters over the last two or three years, so if Simmons goes, I’m playing him. If he’s out, McConnell and Mr. October look like really good plays.

Honorable Mention:

De’Aaron Fox ($7,100): Fox is playing at a high level to start the season. He has more than 40 DraftKings points in two of the three games, and he still hit 5x value in the third of those three. It’s going to be harder for Fox to hit value going forward, but this is a good matchup against Denver. I would say Fox is going to be very close to 40 DraftKings points again at the least.

Elfrid Payton ($6,400): Everyone hopped on the Payton train on Friday, and he proceeded to come up short of value against the Kings. It still wasn’t a bad game for Payton, but it may cause others to look elsewhere tonight. A big part of the lower production was that Payton only played 24 minutes. I hope that was just due to the lopsided nature of the game. I expect Payton around the mid 30’s for DraftKings points for tonight. That’s good enough for me on a short slate.

Dark Horses:

Reggie Jackson ($5,800): Simmons is tough for opposing guards, so if he is in the lineup, I don’t think I’ll risk it with Jackson. Like I mentioned before, I really don’t see Philly playing him at less than 100%. If McConnell is trying to guard Jackson instead, I think Reggie mostly has his way with him. However, even in two games against teams that were in the bottom ten of PG defense last year, Jackson has yet to top the 30 DraftKings point mark.

T.J. McConnell ($3,800): McConnell is not an automatic in the spot. Landry Shamet saw almost as many minutes as he did. The thing of note for me is that Markelle Fultz didn’t see anything added to his playing time. Fultz has the most upside of any of them, but he is also the most volatile. If Simmons is out, I think I would rather go with the sure thing in McConnell, but Fultz is a better GPP option if Simmons is out.

My pick: McConnell (if Simmons out) Fultz if Simmons plays(PG)

NEW ORLEANS, LA – APRIL 21: Jrue Holiday #11 of the New Orleans Pelicans drives to the basket against Jusuf Nurkic #27 of the Portland Trail Blazers during the second half of Game Four of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs at the Smoothie King Center on April 21, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Pelicans defeated the Trail Blazers 131-123 to sweep the series 4-0. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

Jrue Holiday ($7,400): Holiday was up to his old tricks against Sacramento on Friday after a lackluster opener on Wednesday. It had a lot to do with the production of Elfrid Payton. This is a trend to watch. If Holiday and Payton can’t both have a good game at the same time, it’s going to make the Pelicans really tough to pick for DFS purposes. I’m leaning towards Holiday against the Clippers because he is a more proven commodity than Payton.

Honorable Mention:

Gary Harris ($6,500): Harris picked up a lot of the slack with Jamal Murray struggling because of a tibial contusion. The Nuggets haven’t commented as to Murray’s status for tonight. If he is out, Harris becomes a must-play, especially with Will Barton still out. Harris is worth a look regardless, but I think we have no choice but to use him if Murray can’t go or is limited.

Buddy Hield ($5,600): Hield has been a consistent producer so far, which is exactly what he was not last year. The problem that I have here is that his minutes have fluctuated. We haven’t seen any big games from Buddy. I know it’s only three games, but since Fox has stabilized his production, Hield seems to have as well. For this reason, I think I prefer Hield in cash games until he shows he still has that ability to have a big game.

Dark Horses:

J.J. Redick ($5,300): If Simmons is forced to miss time, Redick looks like the main one to target. Redick racked up 48 DraftKings points against the Magic on Saturday. Part of it may have been the opponent, but the Sixers needed Redick’s scoring out there to help balance the lineup. Look for that to be the case again if Simmons is out.

Lou Williams ($5,200): Williams has been in the 20s for DraftKings points in all three games so far, and he hasn’t really had his shot falling in any of those games. If he ever gets hot, Williams is very underpriced in this spot. The Pelicans look like a very good spot for this to happen since the pace is going to be frenetic in this one.

My pick: Redick(SG) if Simmons out; Williams if Simmons plays

NEW ORLEANS, LA – OCTOBER 19: Nikola Mirotic #3 of the New Orleans Pelicans celebrates a score against the Sacramento Kings during the second half at the Smoothie King Center on October 19, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Nikola Mirotic ($7,200): This price looks awfully low. Mirotic has topped 50 DraftKings points in both games so far. Until he slows down, ride him. I don’t think the Clippers can really get him off of his game. I’m not exactly sure they can guard him either with Mirotic shooting the way he is. Just lock him in and watch your point total rise.

Danilo Gallinari ($6,300): Gallinari continues to put up big numbers, and not just in points. He stuffed the stat sheet against the Rockets, and will likely do the same against a New Orleans team that operates in a similar fashion. I mostly expect Harris to draw the worst of the matchups, so Gallinari is my pick if you’re on the fence for one or the other.

Honorable Mention:

Dario Saric ($6,100): The Saric that we have seen in the last two games is the one we expected this season. He has 69.25 DraftKings points in the last two games, which puts Saric close to 6x value. Saric has done that despite hitting just 8 of 24 shots from the field. If his shot starts falling, Saric is going to put up a game in the 50’s very soon.

Trey Lyles ($4,800): Lyles is backing up two top tier talents in the Denver frontcourt, so there is very little upside here. However, this game probably wont stay close, and Denver should want to rest their prized possessions. I could see a little more run for Lyles here and a legitimate shot at 20 DraftKings points.

Dark Horses:

Stanley Johnson ($4,400): The door is wide open for Johnson to be a huge fantasy asset. All he has to do is walk through it. Detroit is going to continue to give him tons of minutes. Even with just a little touch on the offensive end, Johnson could destroy value. I’m willing to roll the dice on this short of a slate with Johnson’s price where it is.

Iman Shumpert ($4,300): Shumpert had a monster game entering the starting lineup for an already crowded Kings backcourt. This will most certainly afford him more minutes in the short term, but can you really trust any guard besides Fox and maybe Hield? This situation seems to be getting worse before it gets better, but I have a feeling that the Kings may continue to showcase Shumpert in an effort to increase his trade value.

My pick: Mirotic(SF), Shumpert(F)

PLAYA VISTA, CA – SEPTEMBER 24: Head coach Doc Rivers and Tobias Harris #34 of the Los Angeles Clippers pose for photos during media day at the Los Angeles Clippers Training Center on September 24, 2018 in Playa Vista, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Blake Griffin ($9,000): Drummond is fighting the flu now, so he is likely to be somewhere less than 100%. Expect a healthier dose of Griffin here. If for some reason Drummond sits, I’m all in on Blake. He is dominating the interior in the early going, putting up 106.5 DraftKings points in two games. The Pelicans could blow out the Clippers, and with Davis needing 57 DraftKings points to hit value, he may not play long enough to do so. Griffin looks like more bang for the buck whether Drummond plays or not.

Tobias Harris ($7,500): I’m not all that crazy about this spot for Harris, but like Williams, with the pace very high and Harris shooting the way he is, I’m inclined to think that he hits value anyway. I don’t see huge upside here though, so if you have something else that looks better, by all means, go for it.

Honorable Mention:

Julius Randle ($6,700): Is there a better sixth man in the league right now? Randle has 72.5 DraftKings points in just 48 minutes this season. Those are A.D. numbers per minute! We have to realize that Randle isn’t going to go over 25-28 minutes any time soon, but it doesn’t really matter if he keeps putting up numbers this huge. Still, the upside is capped, and Randle doesn’t have the assured court time to recover form an off night. There is serious risk here.

Paul Millsap ($6,200): The athleticism of the Warriors was a big problem for Millsap. Sacramento has some athletes up front, but they aren’t as long as KD and Draymond. I could see this game going either way for Millsap, either a great value or a great bust. I almost feel like the bust potential is greater simply because Millsap my see less minutes if this gets out of hand. I think I would rather take risk where there is more upside.

Dark Horse:

Montrezl Harrell ($4,300): I want zero part of the Kings out of whack frontcourt rotations against the stingiest frontcourt defense in the league so far. I would rather roll the dice with Harrell, who showed his upside with 42.5 DraftKings points on Sunday. Like Randle, Harrell can do a lot of damage in very little court time. Unlike Randle, Harrell is still very cheap, but also very inconsistent.

My pick: Griffin(PF), If McConnell, then Lyles at F instead of Shumpert

NEW ORLEANS, LA – OCTOBER 19: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans reacts during the first half against the Sacramento Kings at the Smoothie King Center on October 19, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,400): It would be sacrilegious of me to not mention the greatest (fantasy) player in the league, no matter what the matchup. I would say that this game has serious blowout potential, so Davis is less likely to hit value at this mammoth price. I would rather pay down for Blake and/or Drummond. They seem more likely to hit value for their price point. Of course, Brow is the only one on the slate capable of topping 70 DraftKings points on any given night.

Joel Embiid ($10,400): Embiid has put up huge numbers so far this season, and he’s not going to slow down any time soon. A full strength Drummond had issues with him last year. If Drummond is at all limited, Embiid could be even better. If Simmons is out, Embiid also gets a boost. Things could align to where Embiid could put up a really huge night. Keep an eye on all the news. If Drummond and Simmons are both out, eat the chalk. You’re going to want Embiid.

Honorable Mention:

Nikola Jokic ($9,700): Jokic has four games of 80 or more DraftKings points since last year’s All Star break. That’s the kind of upside we have here. We saw Jokic decimate Phoenix over the weekend, and he held strong against the Warriors on Sunday. Jokic has the potential to wreak havoc on this Sacramento frontcourt as well. As far as potential alone, Jokic has as good of upside as anyone on the slate.

Andre Drummond ($9,400): We saw Vucevic have a monster triple double against Embiid over the weekend. I have questions as to whether Drummond at less than 100% can put up a truly special night, but even at 80%, Drummond could clear 5x value with ease. Embiid has never been a strong defender despite his elite athleticism.

Dark Horse:

Zaza Pachulia ($3,800): I’ve got good news and bad news. The good news is that you can have a sure 20 DraftKings points for less than $4,000. The bad news is you have to take up either your C or UTIL slot on a night loaded with elite centers. Of course, if Drummond is out, this is a no brainer. You play Zaza and Blake and don’t look back. I still am willing to use one of those slots on Zaza because Drummond will most certainly not be 100%. 7x value is likely here, and we are going to need the salary relief.

My pick: Embiid(C), Pachulia(UTIL)

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