FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Tuesday, October 23

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of FanDuel NBA GPP Plays. I’m “Thunder Dan” and I’m more addicted to NBA DFS than I am to coffee (as I finish my second cup at 6 AM).  All kidding aside, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests on FanDuel.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

I’ve been discussing the new FanDuel NBA format a lot already this season and I know some players are discouraged by having a really good score dropped if they’ve built a really good 9-player lineup. My best advice is to try to adapt your roster construction to maximize your lineup’s potential by looking for at least one or two “value plays” that are 3.5k – 4.5k.  I don’t recommend rostering a player who is not likely to play since you never know if one of your other 8 players is going to battle foul trouble or get hurt and be forced to leave a game early.

"The key to winning a GPP on any given night is finding players who hit their ceilings.  5x or even 6x value is not enough. We want 7x or better from players in order to take down GPP contests."

Punting one or two roster spots has appeared to be a very viable strategy on every slate this year, it simply allows you to roster more 7k+ players with higher floors and ceilings.  My best lineups have been made using this strategy and I guarantee if you start looking at winning GPP lineups in the tournaments you’re entering you’ll see others who are doing it, too. Get out ahead of the curve and try making some of these “stars and scrubs” builds while there’s still some underpriced players and value options here early in the year.

This is a first look article, so always remember to check Twitter for injury updates, quotes from coaches about playing time, and so on as lock approaches.  If you’re not following some NBA beat writers for the latest news, you should at least be getting push notifications on your phone when players are declared out with injuries. NBA DFS is an information game and having access to all the information you need right up until tip-off is crucial to making sure your lineups have a chance at winning every night.

Remember to check out all the other great free NBA DFS content here @FantasyCPR. Without any further ado, let’s get to tonight’s 3-game slate!

FanDuel NBA: Sixers @ Pistons ( no total yet)

There’s some major injury news we are going to need to monitor for this game that will determine how we approach it in DFS and will likely shape how we build rosters for the entire slate.  For the Sixers, Ben Simmons is questionable with a back injury that forced him to leave Saturday’s game in the first quarter and he did not practice yesterday.  Meanwhile, Pistons center Andre Drummond‘s status is also in doubt after he missed practice yesterday with the flu.  If either of these guys can’t suit up tonight (or both) then we’d have some value open and a few near must-plays in this game.  We’re still waiting on a total from Vegas since both teams have one of their stars in question tonight.

If Simmons can’t go, then Joel Embiid (10700) becomes one of the top plays on the slate as he would be asked to do even more than he’s already doing (30% usage) to help carry the Sixers’ offense.  All the other Sixers starters are relatively cheap and would likely see a bump in production as well, but the biggest values to target would be T.J. McConnell (4000), J.J. Redick (5300), and Markelle Fultz (5900). I like the Sixers’ guards in that order, with the scrappy McConnell likely to hit value the easiest since he’s so cheap.  Redick scored 31 points on Saturday and is producing a fantasy point-per-minute with a 24% usage rate.  I’m still not sold on Markelle Fultz, but I would likely want a few shares just in case he would break out in a major way in this game.  Rostering some cheap Philly guards would give us the ability to spend up for some of the other studs on this slate, so the Simmons news is going to affect the entire slate.

If Drummond misses for Detroit, I’m focusing first and foremost of Blake Griffin (8800) who already has a 33% usage rate this season and showed us his massive ceiling on Saturday when he went for 57.9 FD points against Chicago as Drummond battled foul trouble.  We could also look at our old friend Zaza Pachulia (4100) for value as he would be a good bet to soak up 25 minutes or more of Drummond’s minutes and he’s been quite productive this season averaging over a fantasy point-per-minute in his first two games.  I’m not all that interested in the Detroit guards or wings as they all tend to be streaky shooters who trade good nights and fight over the remaining scraps on offense

FanDuel NBA: Clippers @ Pelicans (237 total)

This is my favorite game to target for fantasy goodness tonight. Not only do we have a massive Vegas total, but we also have only a 6-point spread.  The Clippers have started 2-1 this season and are coming off a win against the Rockets so I think they can give the Pellies a run for their money tonight.  The best thing about this game is that we have a few really predictable patterns developing in each team’s rotation that we can exploit tonight.

I’ll start with the visiting Clippers.  Their offense is running through two players right now, Tobias Harris (7900) and Danilo Gallinari (6600).  Both guys are averaging over 20 points a game with usage rates of 23% and 24%, respectively, and both are returning over a fantasy point per minute.  Gallo is the easier one to fit into builds at this price, but Tobias has shown a higher ceiling as he went for 48 FD points last week against OKC.  If the Clippers are implied for 115 points tonight and we can get 40% of that production from two players then I’m highly interested in using both of them in a game stack tonight.

The Pelicans are 2-0 and have looked impressive dismantling the Rockets in their opener and then blowing out the Kings in their second game. It all starts with Anthony Davis (13000) who is producing a massive 2.1 fantasy points-per-minute. He should be able to do whatever he wants out there against the Clippers who don’t have anyone they can use to slow him down.  Davis might not the best point-per-dollar option on his own team, however, as fellow big man Nikola Mirotic (7200) is averaging 47.6 FD points in his first two games and has a massive 30% usage of his own. While I don’t think that number is sustainable, I do think he’s a near must-play tonight since FanDuel moved him to SF, a position that is relatively weak other than Gallinari.  Now we can use a Miro-Gallo-Tobias Harris–Anthony Davis core stack in GPPs and have access to all four players from this game if we want and I fully intend on doing that in some builds.

Elfrid Payton (7000) and Jrue Holiday (7800) are worthy of consideration here as well, but the Pelicans big men are my primary targets. Holiday will pop off for a big man sooner than later, but tonight will have to deal with Avery Bradley defense, while Payton also has a tough matchup against well-respected defender Patrick Beverley.

FanDuel NBA: Kings @ Nuggets ( 227 Total)

This is the game I have the least interest in as a game stack, despite the high total.  It mainly has to do with the fact that it already carries an 11-point spread and I just always have a hard time trusting the Kings to remain competitive. They played well in their last game against the Thunder, pulling off the upset and scoring 130 points. But it won’t be that easy against a good Denver team tonight on the road.

There are some pieces I like on both sides, however. DeAaron Fox (8000) makes for an interesting pivot at point guard. He’s priced up, but has already gone for 42 and 43 FD points in two of his first three games and played 37 and 41 minutes in those games. Those minutes are huge and Fox is not only scoring but dishing out 7.6 assists per game.  If I have some exposure to the Kings tonight, it will likely be to their emerging star point guard.

For the Nuggets, we need to pay attention to the status of Jamal Murray (6400). He played through an injury on Sunday but was highly ineffective after he got hurt.  If he were to miss tonight’s game, then we could look at his backup Monte Morris (3900) who played well on Sunday, putting up 21 FD points in 21 minutes. The other Nugget to target is Garry Harris (7200) who popped off for 42 FD points against the Warriors and is going to get all the shots and minutes he can handle with Will Barton now on the shelf for 5-6 weeks.

Oh and that Nikola Jokic (10600) guy is pretty good, too.  He’s eligible at PF tonight on FanDuel and is averaging 56 FD points through his first three games including a massive 79.7 point outing against Phoenix. Predicting when Jokic goes off can be maddening, but it’s probably a good idea to get him in a few lineups just in case he decides to go ham again.

FanDuel NBA: Sample Lineup and Overview

Again, the injury news is going to dictate how we go about building rosters tonight.  I’m not having any problem fitting in Anthony Davis right now, but if Simmons and Drummond end up playing, then we’ll be forced to make some tough decisions about which studs we want to pay up for and there are compelling cases to be made for all of the higher priced guys.

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Here’s where I’m at now, operating on the assumption that Simmons, Drummond and Jamal Murray all sit out.  It’s a stars-and-scrubs type roster construction with some value plays to jam in the highest projected ceilings tonight.

PG: T.J. McConnell (4000)

PG: Monte Morris (3600)

SG: J.J. Redick (5300)

SG: Gary Harris (7200)

SF: Nikola Mirotic (7400)

SF: Danilo Gallinari (6600)

PF: Anthony Davis (13000)

PF: Blake Griffin (8800)

C: Zaza Pachulia (4100)

There you go!  A fun little three-game slate tonight, and the perfect GPP slate on FanDuel. Pay attention to the injury reports today and build some takedown lines tonight! Good luck and as always thanks for reading!