What could have been: Mike Trout and the Washington Nationals

Both Mike Trout and Bryce Harper could potentially sign record-breaking contracts in the MLB offseason this year, but what if the two were drafted to the same team?

Mike Trout is undoubtedly the best player in Major League Baseball, but when he entered the MLB Draft in 2009, no one knew what he would become. Which is why he was selected 25th overall by the Los Angeles Angels.

The No. 1 overall pick in that year’s draft, Stephen Strasburg, was selected by the Washington Nationals, but what if the Nationals knew back then what we all know now about Trout, and take him with the top pick? Then, use their 2010 No. 1 pick to select Bryce Harper. One thing is for sure, the Nationals would be in a much better position right now to re-sign Bryce Harper if Mike Trout were on the team.

But let’s take a step back and explain why Trout was overlooked by virtually every team in the league. There wasn’t anything glaringly wrong with Trout’s game, in fact he had plus speed, athleticism and had a cannon of an arm on the mound. He was simply under scouted because of where he grew up, New Jersey.

Known for a higher than average rainfall, many of Trout’s high school games were rained out, which kept MLB scouts away, resulting in the rest of the league gifting Trout to the Angels late in the first round.

On the flip side of that, Strasburg was the No. 1 pick for many reasons. Coming out of San Diego State University, Strasburg brought with him a stellar college resume that included National Pitcher of the Year, a 13-1 record and a 1.32 ERA. Not to mention he fit exactly what the Nationals were looking for, a player to save their woeful pitching staff. It lined up perfectly for Washington to take Strasburg with the top pick.

But let’s walk down the road of “what if” and imagine what would happen if the Nationals did in fact draft Trout instead of Strasburg, and go through with drafting Harper the following year.

Think back to the 2012 postseason, the Nationals had a monumental meltdown in the the ninth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals allowing four runs, and eventually losing the series. Not saying Trout is a cure-all, his postseason numbers are nothing to get excited about, but his presence in the lineup does change that series and likely gives the Nationals a chance at advancing to the next round.

Or how about 2015, the year that both Harper and Trout hit 40 home runs. Washington missed the postseason completely mainly because they couldn’t win divisional games against the New York Mets. Trout’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) that year was 9.4, Strasburg’s was 1.9. A simple swap of those players, and Washington squeezes past the Mets into the playoffs with one of the greatest one-two punches on offense in the league.

This isn’t to say that drafting Strasburg was wrong, but a quick comparison of the two shows that Trout is simply a better value than Strasburg. Since the two made their first All-Star appearance in 2012 together, Trout has been named an All Star six more times, Strasburg three. Trout has two AL MVP trophies and has the highest slugging percentage of any active player.

When Strasburg is healthy he’s a force on the mound, but his health has always been his downfall. Strasburg only has one season where he’s made 30 starts, and pitched 200 innings. Plus he finished the 2018 season on the disabled list. Although Trout has missed some extended time in the lat two years, when he’s on the field his production is undeniable.

Strasburg has been good for Washington, but imagining a lineup that features Trout and Harper would have made the Nationals World Series contenders for years to come. Instead, Washington is a team that not only underperforms in the playoffs, but is on the brink of potentially losing Harper this offseason in the process.