FanDuel NBA DFS: GPP Breakdown – Wednesday, October 24

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of FanDuel NBA GPP Plays. I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love NBA DFS more than skinny kid loves apple slices (no cake here, diabetes runs in the family).  All kidding aside, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests on FanDuel.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

Punting one or two roster spots has appeared to be a very viable strategy on every slate this year, it simply allows you to roster more 7k+ players with higher floors and ceilings.  My best FanDuel NBA lineups have been made using this strategy and I guarantee if you start looking at winning GPP lineups in the tournaments you’re entering you’ll see others who are doing it, too. Get out ahead of the curve and try making some of these “stars and scrubs” builds while there’s still some underpriced players and value options here early in the year.

I had some luck last night with the value that opened up in T.J. McConnell and J.J. Redick as well as Monte Morris who had a nice night between Jamal Murray foul trouble and mop-up duty in the Nuggets blowout win.

Blake, Embiid, and Anthony Davis all went crazy last night and I had two of those three in every build so it was a good night for me. Small slates can be fun if you nail the right couple plays. Tonight will be challenging for GPPs as we have 11 games on the main slate.  The Bucks-Sixers game is without a Vegas total yet due to Ben Simmons uncertain status and 9 of the remaining 10 games all carry a total of 219 or higher. I mentioned on Twitter the other day that I consider this to be “the new norm” in the NBA and we’re going to continue to see points scored an incredible rate all year.  Even with only 8 spots counting on FD, winning GPP lineups are topping 350 FD points with regularity, which means we’re looking for an average of 40-50 points from those 8 players in our lineups.

"The key to winning a GPP on any given night is finding players who hit their ceilings.  5x or even 6x value is not enough. We want 7x or better from players in order to take down GPP contests."

This is a first look article, so always remember to check Twitter for injury updates, quotes from coaches about playing time, and so on as lock approaches.  If you’re not following some NBA beat writers for the latest news, you should at least be getting push notifications to your phone when players are declared out with injuries. NBA DFS is an information game and having access to all the information you need right up until lineup-lock is crucial to making sure your lineups have a chance at being in contention when the west coast games wrap up in the wee hours of the morning.

FanDuel NBA: GPP Point Guards

Steph Curry (9.3k)

On a slate loaded with superstars, Curry might be my favorite play tonight at any position. He’s the cheapest of the elite plays tonight as his price somehow went down despite his torrid start. He’s been incredibly efficient in the Warriors first 4 games, averaging 30.5 real-life points on an incredible 53% shooting. His 30% usage is about the same as teammate Kevin Durant, who I also like tonight and is a bit underpriced.  The Warriors have the slate’s top implied team total at whopping 122 points tonight. They’re 9-point road favorites at Washington and if the Wizards can hang with the Dubs, then Steph can pay off his price tag easily and push that 7x value threshold.

Kemba Walker (8.4k)

The Charlotte-Chicago game is definitely one of the games I want to target and maybe even stack up tonight. I’ve been all over Kemba this season and am going to continue to roster him in these good spots until he’s priced up with Curry and Wall. His 36% usage rate is massive and the matchup is perfect tonight against a Bulls team that plays no defense (although it’s feeling like you could say that about half the league at this point) and is missing starting point guard Kris Dunn again. Kemba is attempting an average of 24 shots a game, you simply won’t find many other guys who are getting that volume of shots up on the slate tonight.

Trae Young (7.8k)

This might feel like a chase to some people, but 7800 is still pretty cheap for the Atlanta rookie tonight in his matchup with Dallas.  He’s doing what I thought he would do this preseason, chucking up a ton of shots every night (he attempted 14 three-pointers in his breakout game against the Cavs).  But I didn’t plan on him being this good, or on such high assist totals.  If I told you that you could roster a point guard averaging 23-8 with a 26% usage rate for this price against Dennis Smith Jr. defense you wouldn’t hesitate, so don’t let potentially high ownership keep you away from using the kid who could potentially break the slate.

PUNT: T.J. McConnell 3.9k (If Ben Simmons is out again)

FanDuel NBA: GPP Shooting Guards

James Harden (11.7k)

With Chris Paul sitting out again tonight due to his suspension, Harden is in another potentially explosive spot against the Jazz at home.  He nearly cracked 60 FD points in his last game against the Clippers, a loss, as Paul watched in street clothes. He’s got a 40% usage rate without CP3 and could go potentially overlooked with how many strong options there are at SG and with just how many other superstars there are to pay up for.  Don’t be fooled, the matchup against Utah is not the bad matchup that many perceive it to be, they are playing fast this year and historically Harden has been very good against them.  He’s averaged 33-6-6 with three steals in his last four meetings with Utah which would be good for 58.2 FD points.  I think he can top that tonight and be one of the highest scorers on the slate. We all know that 70-burger from “the Beard” is coming sooner or later…

DeMar DeRozan (8.2k)

DeRozan went nuts against the Lakers on Monday and I was luckily 100% on him in every lineup. I’m not sure who fell asleep at Fanduel and forgot to move his price up, but he’s still only 8200.  I don’t see him being chalky tonight because there are so many other sexy plays out there and the Spurs have a team total near the bottom of the pack. But I still love DeRozan for GPPs because he has a massive 34% usage rate. He and Aldridge are carrying the Spurs on their backs and I would expect DDR to put up another 20-25 shots tonight against Indiana in what should be a very competitive game.

Devin Booker (8k)

Booker “only” scored 40 FD points in his last game against the Warriors so his price went down, ha!  The price is right for the Suns’ star tonight in what is being projected as a high-scoring track meet with the Lakers. I’ll have some shares of Booker, who’s averaging 29 points and nearly 7 assists per game to go along with a 30% usage rate.

Value: Rodney McGruder 4.5k (don’t be afraid to keep playing him! He’s good! Winslow is back, but Johnson and Ellington are still out)

Fanduel NBA: GPP Small Forwards

Kevin Durant (9.9k)

First of all, let me say that Giannis and Lebron are excellent plays tonight, too. But I can’t write up everyone and you probably didn’t me to tell you that their great GPP plays because they will be most nights. Pricing matters in DFS and Durant offers a similar ceiling at a major savings. Some people say you can’t play KD and Steph together on one roster, while it’s not always optimal, I think both guys can go off tonight against the Wizards at home.

Joe Ingles (6.6k)

Sick of hearing about Joe Ingles, yet? Too bad, the guy is a really good NBA player and continues to be an underrated fantasy asset. He had his worst game of the season on Monday when he shot 4-13 from the field and still managed 30 FD points since he had 8 boards, 5 assists, and 2 steals. I love that his price dropped 500 and that he’s in a pace-up spot tonight against the Rockets who are allergic to defense.  Don’t sleep on “Jingles”, he’s often thought of a cash game play but has a nice ceiling as well as he saw in the Golden State game last week.

Value: Mario Hezonja (4.7k)

Super Mario is back!  Last year, Hezonja was a DFS commodity on a regular basis at times when he was starting for the Magic. The talented young European can fill up the stat sheet and reminded everyone of his skill set Monday night when he went for 31.3 FD points in 30 minutes off the bench for the Knicks. He’s filling the void left by the injury to rookie Kevin Knox, and I think he could easily replicate his performance from Monday and get you 7x value tonight against Miami.

FanDuel NBA: GPP Power Forwards

Kyle Kuzma (7.2k)

I’m really mad at myself for not having more Kuz on Monday as I let the haters and noise keep me from going all-in on him. I love his game and he has the opportunity to go off again tonight against Phoenix with Brandon Ingram still suspended. Kuz played 45 minutes in the overtime loss Monday and dropped 49 FD points. He’s got a serious ceiling due to his ability to score and the Lakers are going to need him to help carry the load tonight.

Marvin Bagley III (5k)

Bagley has been one of the bright spots for the Kings this year, as the #2 overall pick has two games now over 40 FD points.  He’s coming off the bench, which is actually helping his usage (22%) and he’s shown elite rebounding ability and some surprising defensive prowess (5 blocks last night).  Both of his games were in mop-up duty, and with the Kings playing a back-to-back tonight against a veteran Memphis team, this could be another game in which Bagley plays the whole fourth quarter against the Grizzlies subs and goes nuts. It’s risky, but he’s got 8-9x upside.

Value: Domantas Sabonis (4.9k)

The bad news is that I had a lot of Sabonis on Monday and he laid an egg, getting into foul trouble in the first half and then getting benched down the stretch. It’s always risky rostering a bench player with uncertain minutes, but the good news is that this is the cheapest we’ve seen Sabonis this season and he could pop off again with a double-double.  He’s got a 20% usage rate with the second team and averages 1.28 FD points per minute, so he can pay off this price tag even in only 25 minutes tonight.

FanDuel NBA: GPP Centers

DeAndre Jordan (8.3k)

Please note that if Ben Simmons is out, that Joel Embiid is likely the top center play of the day.  DJ has been very consistent this year for Dallas and is averaging nearly 42 FD points in only 31 minutes a night. The matchup against the Hawks is perfect, as we’ve been seeing centers destroy their young interior players so far this year. This game should get up and down tonight with a lot of shots going up, which means potential rebounds for DJ. If he can block some shots like he did last week against Minnesota, he could have another big 50+ FD point kind of night.

Deandre Ayton (7.7k)

Ayton is another guy I was on all preseason and for the first few games so I was mad at myself when I didn’t roster him in a good bounce-back spot on Monday against the Warriors. Today’s matchup is equally good, if not better as the Suns take on the Lakers at home. Ayton can make 20-10 look easy and is averaging a surprising 4 assists per game as well.  At 1.2 FD points per minute, he’s an elite option if he gets 35+ minutes tonight.

JaVale McGee (6k)

I’ll admit it, I was waiting for the McGee let down game to happen and it hasn’t yet. I don’t think it happens tonight, either, as the Lakers need him to play big minutes with Ingram suspended. 6k feels like a lot for McGee but he played 28 minutes against the Spurs on Monday and is averaging a ridiculous 1.5 FD points per minute. It’s hard to argue with that production, and the upside for another massive game is there again tonight if he gets enough run.

FanDuel NBA: GPP Overview and Sample Lineup

With so many superstars on the slate, it’s going to be tempting to make some stars-and-scrubs type builds today.  Other than Harden, I’m not looking to build around too many 10k or more players as there are so many other elite plays in the 7-9k price range. I will be mixing in some value plays to help squeeze in all the studs I want and I absolutely think that game stacking is a very viable strategy tonight since we have so many high totals. I’m very interested in Chicago-Charlotte and Dallas-Atlanta. Here’s where I am as of 6:00 AM.

PG: Trae Young (7800)

PG: Steph Curry (9300)

SG: Rodney McGruder (4500)

SG: DeMar DeRozan (8200)

SF: Mario Hezonja (4700)

SF: Joe Ingles (6600)

PF: Markieff Morris (5700)

PF: Kyle Kuzma (7200)

C: JaVale McGee (6000)

Good luck in your contests, everyone! Have a great Wednesday and thanks for reading!