NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday October 24
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Rinse and Repeat – another night where it took 300 FantasyDraft points just to cash and 350 to win a GPP – this has been pretty much the recipe for far this season so make sure you are thinking through getting 3-3.5x value per player’s salary as you build your roster as we have enough data now to make these conclusions. For the most part, last night went about as planned but the big “winners” came from the Pistons-Sixers game due to a OT game which helped pad the stats for Blake Griffin who went absolutely bonkers with 80+ fantasy points on the back of 50 points and 14 rebounds with the best part being lower ownership as a result of Andre Drummond suiting up!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Core Guard Plays:
We have a massive 11 game NBA DFS slate tonight so on slates like this, I can take a more “traditional” position by position approach to help you narrow down your player pool. Of the 11 games on the slate (only 10 with Vegas totals), all but one game (Indiana/San Antonio) has a 219 total or higher while 9 teams have a 116 team total or higher – again, scoring is way up this year and with it, so too is the fantasy production.
James Harden ($20.4K) is the clear top spend at guard tonight with Chris Paul out for the final game of his suspension and we have seen over the last two seasons, with CP3 off the court it becomes a usage fest for The Beard as he sports a 41% usage rate and over 1.6 FP/M. Now the price may seem high and the match-up against the Jazz may not normally be one we want to target but consider this for a second – last year CP3 missed only one game against the Jazz and in that game, Harden went off for 56 points, 13 assists and 83 fantasy points. Harden is the top play on the board and even though the price is high, there is still upside with CP3 off the court.
Eric Gordon ($11.5K) is the cheaper pivot off Harden tonight after stepping into the starting line-up for CP3 against the Clippers and putting up 35 FP in 32 minutes with a 26% usage rate which was second on the team behind the aforementioned Harden. With James Ennis out tonight as well, Michael Carter-Williams ($7K) sill step into the starting line-up for Houston but keep in mind that he will remain on a minutes limit and has yet to play more than 20 minutes this season in any game.
Outside of the CP3 suspension, there are a few injury spots we need to watch and focus on which could add some additional value on this large slate. With Rajon Rondo out again tonight for his suspension, Lonzo Ball ($12.4K) still feels under-priced considering he is locked into a starting role where he played 32 minutes and dropped 33 fantasy points against the Spurs. Tonight, Ball and the Lakers will take on the Phoenix Suns in a game with a slate leading 237 total and only a 2.5 pt spread – honestly, much as we did with the Lakers on Monday, you could argue that the prices are still far too low considering the circumstances here with Rondo/Ingram out and go right back to them as a core build.
With such a high total tonight and with the Lakers playing at the fastest pace in the NBA, running back any Lakers exposure with Devin Booker ($15.2K) is a viable strategy. Booker leads the Suns with a 37% usage rate and nearly 1.3 FP/M while putting up 15, 19 and 21 FGA in his first three games. We just saw DeMar DeRozan drop 66 fantasy points (32 pts, 14 assists, 8 boards) against this up-tempo short-handed Lakers team so locking in Booker tonight, you have similar upside potential.
With Ben Simmons missing last night’s game for the Sixers and now being on a back to back, we could get another night of Philly value in the back-court which puts T.J. McConnell ($7.3K) firmly in play as a punt after his 32 minutes and 26 FP performance last night which would return over 3.5x at this price point. If you want to pay up for someone like Harden tonight, pairing him with a punt like McConnell who is locked into major minutes (assuming Simmons is out again), is a viable high-low strategy that is easy to fit into salary cap formats.
NBA DFS – Guard Pivot Plays:
Much has been made of the increased pace and high usage of Kemba Walker ($15.5K) this year and with a match-up against the Bulls on tap, this looks like a great time to utilize him as a pivot down from someone like James Harden at the top. The Bulls rank 26th in defensive rating so far this year and we saw Kemba put up 64 against this same Bulls team in their first meeting last season.
The Bulls meanwhile will be without Kris Dunn (again) which means Cameron Payne ($7.8K) is likely back in our lives as a value starter. Payne was brutal in his first start as chalk but rebounded nicely with 26 FP in 28 minutes as a starter his next game and will likely be tasked with similar run with Dunn sidelined. The real winner however is Zach LaVine ($13.9K) who has a 34.6% usage rate with a 1.3 FP/M production with Dunn off the court this year and has put up 40-45 FP in every single games this year.
The Trae Young – Luka Doncic rookie face-off will likely generate some buzz tonight after the pair put up some strong recent performances but at nearly $14K each this feels like a spot where you are paying for past production and if I am going to pay that salary, I would rather go with the “known” commodity in LaVine with Dunn sidelined.
D’Angelo Russell ($12.8K) will likely not be someone who jumps out at folks tonight but this Cavaliers-Nets game could have some sneaky DFS stacking potential. With a 229 total and 3 point spread that would normally stand out on any other slate, it kind of gets jumbled in the middle of the pack and this Cavs team is playing at a top 10 pace while ranking second to last in defensive rating – usually a recipe for success. D-Russ has played 30+ minutes in each of his last two games with 32 FP/G and by the way, this Cavs defense is the same young rookie Trae Young just lit up for a 60 spot last game.
Well well well – hello price drop. You knew it was coming – Tim Hardaway Jr. ($12.4K) – is back below $13K after his opening night performance forced his price to spike and I think this is a spot where we can now deploy him now that the general public has moved on to the newest NBA DFS shiny toys. Can I interest you in a player with a 36% usage rate, 1.2 FP/M who has put up AT LEAST 20 shot attempts in EVERY SINGLE GAME. Now is the time you jump back on people – the THJ rules are simple here at Picks and Pivots – high usage, all the shot attempts and the price is back where you can profit off it. He is also the same exact price as Lonzo Ball so who is honestly clicking on him over Ball tonight besides me, because well I always do.
NBA DFS – Core Forward/Center Plays:
As much as James Harden is the clear top choice at Guard, LeBron James ($20.3K) is the clear spend at the F/C position and arguably the top play on the board. In the last game with Rondo/Ingram out, we saw vintage LeBron with a 35% plus usage rate who put up 32 pts, 14 assists and 8 rebounds and at 0-3, you don’t think we are going to see Angry Bron tonight?
Kyle Kuzma ($12.9K) much like Lonzo Ball saw a price bump but honestly, it may still not be enough considering the usage and role he gets with Ingram out. Kuzma had a 28.6% usage rate in his last game on his way to 52 fantasy points and there still feels like we have considerable profit left on these prices before the Rondo/Ingram suspensions are lifted.
On the other side of this game, if you want to game stack the Lakers-Suns, you simply lock in Deandre Ayton ($13.7K) who put up another massive double-double and has put up 45+ fantasy points in two of his three starts this season. Again, this is the same Lakers team that gave up 60+ to LaMarcus Aldridge in their OT game last time so attacking tonight with a Booker/Ayton core much like we did with LMA/DeRozan last time is a strong core strategy.
We mentioned the Cavs-Nets as a potential game stack, but this honestly all starts and ends with Kevin Love ($16.2K) who leads the Cavs with a 30% usage rate and is averaging over 46 FP/G. We know bigs against the Nets is a thing and Love, coming off back-to-back double-doubles will likely make it a third in this spot against Brooklyn.
Keep an eye on the status of Hassan Whiteside here tonight as the injury reports have been a bit inconsistent. Whiteside missed practice on Monday and beat reporter Ira Winderman reported Whiteside was out for Wednesday’s game against the Knicks but he is now officially listed as probable to play after practicing on Tuesday. IF he were to miss with this groin injury, and just keep an eye on the news, Bam Adebayoo ($9.1K) becomes a near must play as he leads the team in FP/M production at 1.14 FP/M.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays at F/C:
I have to be honest, I am not sure people realize just how consistent JaVale McGee ($10.4K) has been for the Lakers thus far. In three games for LA, he has put up 31, 32 and 35 fantasy points for an average of 33 FP which would put him at nearly 3.2x for his AVERAGE performance. McGee is not going to get the buzz that LeBron/Kuzma/Ball will have but I could argue he is the best point per dollar spend on the entire team.
It may seem crazy but I think the team with the highest Vegas total, the Golden State Warriors, is more of a pivot play tonight at lower ownership. Kevin Durant ($17.9K) is considerably cheaper than the stars like LeBron and Harden and will take on his hometown team of the Wizards in a #Narrative game.
Remember when Cedi Osman ($11.7K) was one of the highest owned players on Sunday’s slate after putting up 40+ in each of his first two games and then bombed against Atlanta? Those who rostered him sure do – this could be a great spot to lock in Osman tonight against the Nets when everyone else jumps off.
As you can tell, I really like this Nets-Brooklyn game as a mid-tier price stack with Caris LeVert ($12.4K) as another strong option against one of the worst defenses in the NBA this season. LeVert put up 40+ in each of his first two games before falling back to “only” 33 fantasy points in his last game against Indiana. You can build a Nets-Cavaliers stack as an example with Love, Osman, Russell and LeVert and still have just under $12K per player for the rest of your roster on FantasyDraft if you are looking for a more balanced roster build tonight.
NBA DFS – Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The sample line-up noted below is not an optimized Plug and Play line-up and is merely meant to be illustrative based off the analysis laid out during this article.
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G: Devin Booker ($15.2K)
G: Lonzo Ball ($12.4K)
G: T.J. McConnell ($7.3K)
F/C: LeBron James ($20.3K)
F/C: Kyle Kuzma ($12.9K)
F/C: Deandre Ayton ($13.7K)
UTIL: JaVale McGee ($10.4K)
UTIL: Cameron Payne ($7.8K)
Slate Overview: I know it may seem obvious to simply game stack the highest total on the board but with the Suns/Lakers nearing a 240 total with a mere 2.5pt spread it would be foolish to not consider this game as a core part of your build when you consider the concentrated usage and fantasy production of a few key pieces. Keep an eye on the news for value as we can utilize guys like Payne/McConnell as we have already this season in expanded roles to help unlock the big-ticket items like a LeBron and/or Harden on this slate. Good luck tonight all!
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