Fansided

The Week in Stats: Arsenal are the luckiest team in Europe

By Warren Pegg

LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 25: Alexandre Lacazette of Arsenal celebrates his team's second goal with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang an own goal from Issa Diop of West Ham United (not pictured) during the Premier League match between Arsenal FC and West Ham United at Emirates Stadium on August 25, 2018 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 25: Alexandre Lacazette of Arsenal celebrates his team's second goal with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang an own goal from Issa Diop of West Ham United (not pictured) during the Premier League match between Arsenal FC and West Ham United at Emirates Stadium on August 25, 2018 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

We take a look at the numbers that lie behind the week’s soccer headlines, including Arsenal’s lucky streak.

Inter Milan’s Mauro Icardi perfects his less-is-more approach to the striker’s craft, the luckiest teams in Europe are named and things become a little feisty over in Germany.

Touches of genius

Mauro Icardi’s dramatic injury-time winner in the Milan derby on Sunday came after he’d only managed 14 touches over the preceding 90 minutes.

As Spurs fans know only too well, this less-is-more approach to forward play is becoming something of a habit for the Argentinian striker. Icardi did much the same thing against Tottenham at San Siro back in September.
As Spurs fans know only too well, this less-is-more approach to forward play is becoming something of a habit for the Argentinian striker. Icardi did much the same thing against Tottenham at San Siro back in September. /

He touched the ball just 16 times in that game — there only seem to be 15 dots on the touch map below, due to two of those touches being kick-offs from the center-spot — but still scored an extraordinary opener for Inter.

https://twitter.com/brlive/status/1042122040273260545

In this regard, however, surely nobody is going to beat Daniel Sturridge this season. His touch map for Liverpool’s Premier League clash with Chelsea was a study in minimalist perfection: one touch, one goal, and a pretty special one at that.
In this regard, however, surely nobody is going to beat Daniel Sturridge this season. His touch map for Liverpool’s Premier League clash with Chelsea was a study in minimalist perfection: one touch, one goal, and a pretty special one at that. /

But if we strip things back to only include players who completed the full 90 minutes of a game, then Icardi is very much top of the tree, although Cristhian Stuani’s two goals from 22 touches for Girona is also quite remarkable.

A hard-luck story

Monaco’s recent decision to part ways with coach Leonardo Jardim brought the expected points (xPTS) metric to the fore, because it showed Jardim’s side had suffered some terrible luck that was almost certain to even itself out in the medium- to long-term.

Expected points is especially useful because it’s a better predictor of future performance than the actual number of points that a side has earned. This means that it allows us to identify which sides are over-performing in terms of the actual quality of their displays on the pitch and therefore are very unlikely to be able to maintain their current results.

A look at the European sides that were the “luckiest” over-achievers in expected points terms last season demonstrates this metric’s predictive properties.

As you can see, with the exception of Juventus, the teams listed above have all endured starts to this season that range from disappointing to horrendous. Manchester United currently sit 10th in the Premier League, Bayern suffered their worst run of results in almost two decades, Schalke lost their opening five Bundesliga games, Monaco are in the relegation zone …
As you can see, with the exception of Juventus, the teams listed above have all endured starts to this season that range from disappointing to horrendous. Manchester United currently sit 10th in the Premier League, Bayern suffered their worst run of results in almost two decades, Schalke lost their opening five Bundesliga games, Monaco are in the relegation zone … /
Moving onto the current season, we shouldn’t feel too surprised if Arsenal’s winning streak comes to an end, Werder Bremen drop out of the Champions League places in the Bundesliga, or Alaves — who found themselves top of La Liga on Friday — begin to fall down the table.
Moving onto the current season, we shouldn’t feel too surprised if Arsenal’s winning streak comes to an end, Werder Bremen drop out of the Champions League places in the Bundesliga, or Alaves — who found themselves top of La Liga on Friday — begin to fall down the table. /

Finally, we’ll look at which teams appear to have been cursed by the football gods during this campaign.

So it seems Rafa Benitez might just pull of another miraculous escape at Newcastle — unless the club’s board are daft enough to sack him, of course — and that Monaco’s position should improve in the near future.
So it seems Rafa Benitez might just pull of another miraculous escape at Newcastle — unless the club’s board are daft enough to sack him, of course — and that Monaco’s position should improve in the near future. /

Foul play

Saturday’s Augsburg vs. Leipzig match, which perhaps unsurprisingly produced no goals, was even more brutal than Opta acknowledged. It wasn’t merely the most foul-laden game in the Bundesliga this season. In fact, no match in the top seven European competitions had produced more offenses.

Those German sides still had a fair way to go to match the dirtiest game of last season, though, which came in the group stages of the Europa League. I think we can safely say this Partizan Belgrade team was not to be trifled with.
Those German sides still had a fair way to go to match the dirtiest game of last season, though, which came in the group stages of the Europa League. I think we can safely say this Partizan Belgrade team was not to be trifled with. /
If we use the total number of yellow and red cards as a gauge of how malicious or dangerous the fouls in a game were, as opposed to how frequent, then the Augsburg vs. Leipzig match — which featured seven cards — doesn’t look quite so bad.
If we use the total number of yellow and red cards as a gauge of how malicious or dangerous the fouls in a game were, as opposed to how frequent, then the Augsburg vs. Leipzig match — which featured seven cards — doesn’t look quite so bad. /
While there are again four Basque sides in La Liga this season — Bilbao, Real Sociedad, Alaves and Eibar — meaning that Basque derbies tend to roll around every few weeks, the table above demonstrates that Bilbao vs. Real Sociedad remains the fiercest local clash of them all.
While there are again four Basque sides in La Liga this season — Bilbao, Real Sociedad, Alaves and Eibar — meaning that Basque derbies tend to roll around every few weeks, the table above demonstrates that Bilbao vs. Real Sociedad remains the fiercest local clash of them all. /

dark. Next. The Week in Stats: BVB are Europe’s most thrilling side

There have been 19 games so far this season in the top seven European competitions that haven’t produced a single card, with the largest number, seven, coming in the Premier League. That’s also where we’ll find the match with the fewest fouls to date, just 10 in Cardiff’s 0-5 home thrashing by Manchester City. This isn’t what we’ve come to expect from a Neil Warnock side over the years, to put it politely. Maybe he’s softening in his old age.
There have been 19 games so far this season in the top seven European competitions that haven’t produced a single card, with the largest number, seven, coming in the Premier League. That’s also where we’ll find the match with the fewest fouls to date, just 10 in Cardiff’s 0-5 home thrashing by Manchester City. This isn’t what we’ve come to expect from a Neil Warnock side over the years, to put it politely. Maybe he’s softening in his old age. /
Home/Premier League