DraftKings Early CFB picks October 27: Build in the Big 12
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Early CFB picks October 27: Build in the Big 12
DraftKings has a nice ten game slate for us to choose from in the main Saturday slate again. We have a defensive slog in here along with a couple of pass happy Pac 12 teams, but the big money would seem to be in the Big 12 again. Six Big 12 teams are on this slate. So are three of their worst defenses.
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My early lineups last Saturday were very close, but choosing value at quarterback to pay for Hollywood Brown became a bad idea when Brown got hurt. I did hit big on Stevie Scott and Damonte Coxie to hit the money line of 153.62 though.
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Top Tier:
Kyler Murray ($10,600): Kansas State is usually known for defense, but they have allowed more than 400 yards per game and 25 points per game this year. Murray had a “down” game against TCU, failing to top 30 DraftKings points for the first time since the opener in which he only played one half. Murray has four straight games with at least four touchdowns. Fade at your own risk.
D’Eriq King ($10,200): If you read my pick em article, you know I’m not a big believer in that USF defense. King has at least 40 DraftKings points in five of Houston’s seven games this year. THis looks like a lock for another one. King is a suitable fade for Murray, especially since USF allowed 30 points to an unspectacular UConn team last week.
Middle Tier:
Alan Bowman ($9,000): Bowman looked like he hadn’t missed a game because of a collapsed lung against Kansas. He hit 400 passing yards…..again…..and seems like a lock to against Iowa State as well. Lost in the feel good story of the Cyclones is the fact that their secondary has taken their lumps this year. They have allowed a lot of yards, just not a lot of points. Most coaches will take that. Bowman at a notch under elite pricing here could turn out to be a pretty good bargain.
Michael Collins ($7,300): In the last paragraph, I discussed what Bowman did to Kansas last week. Collins has a chance to do the same. Shawn Robinson is out for the season, so the show is Collins to star in now. Collins was decent against Oklahoma. He will be a lot more than decent against this Kansas secondary.
Brock Purdy ($7,000): You would definitely think that Purdy is the starter for the Cyclones now no matter what. While the Texas Tech defense is improved, they still aren’t a great unit. They have allowed 288 passing yards per game as they are notorious for getting involved in aerial battles with opposing teams. This looks good for Purdy’s value. Purdy has 74.18 DraftKings points in his two starts this year, and looks like a massive bargain here.
Bargain Shoppers:
Manny Wilkins ($6,700): Arizona State likes to throw the ball, and USC likes to allow passing yards. Seems like a match made in DFS heaven. However, Wilkins’ inaccuracy on deep balls has been a recurring theme for the Sun Devils this year, and makes is really hard to rely on consistent production from Wilkins. He has left more points on the field than he has actually accumulated this year.
Skylar Thompson ($5,800): Thompson isn’t the passer that Ehlinger is, but we saw what a mobile quarterback was able to do to the Oklahoma defense a few weeks ago. I’m not sure that’s changed. Thompson wont rack up loads of passing yards, but a running quarterback against a suspect defense is always worth a GPP flier.
JT Daniels ($5,300): There is value to be had against a defense that gives up a ton of yardage, even though Daniels doesn’t have really great numbers. He isn’t priced like he does either. Daniels only needs 15.9 DraftKings points for 3x value. He may get close to 5x against this defense.
Top Tier:
Travis Etienne ($8,900): Florida State’s run defense hasn’t been the problem. They are only allowing 100 rushing yards per game. Many will be on Lawrence here, but he hasn’t really thrown the ball around that much. Clemson’s line can impose their will on anyone, including this Florida State front. Why run on them when you can pass on them? has been the philosophy so far. I see Clemson doing the opposite and succeeding with it. Moreso than Kentucky will be able to do to Missouri or Wisconsin against Northwestern.
Jordan Cronkrite ($8,800): Cronkrite was a disappointment against UConn because Barnett padded his stats. I didn’t think Cronkrite would be kept out of the end zone though. USF is going to have to run on Houston here, or at least try to. I see Cronkrite being a much larger part of the offense here. He is the best player on the team and South Florida can’t win without him.
Middle Tier:
Alex Barnes ($7,600): Oklahoma’s run defense looks good on the stat sheet, but that’s mostly because they haven’t played a running team since Army. Barnes has 431 yards and seven touchdowns in the last two weeks alone. K-State is going to pound away with Barnes here. 100 yards and at least one touchdown are a certainty, with more possible.
David Montgomery ($7,200): Montgomery has at least 20 DraftKings points in the last three games he has played. Expect a steady dose of Montgomery here. Iowa State’s balanced offense gave West Virginia fits a couple of weeks ago. Expect it to do the same to Texas Tech. And yes, both components of it are worth using for DFS purposes.
Eno Benjamin ($6,800): I still don’t really trust this USC defense. I don’t really trust the ASU offensive line either, but the Sun Devils seem committed to getting Benjamin the ball even if he can’t run it. He has huge upside as you can see from his 63.9 DraftKings points outburst against Oregon State. That isn’t going to happen here, but Benjamin could be in the high 20’s or higher.
Bargain Shoppers:
Pooka Williams ($5,900): Williams often gets overlooked later in games due to Kansas trailing, but they do get him involved in the passing game as well. We just saw Oklahoma put two backs over the century mark against TCU. This Toadies offense isn’t all that explosive either, so I think we could see a closer game, which means more Pooka. That’s a really good thing at this price.
Kennedy Brooks ($5,000): If there is any chance that Sermon isn’t 100 percent, Brooks is going to be in every lineup I create. Brooks looked better than Sermon anyway. At the very least, I expect Brooks to come closer to an even timeshare after last week’s performance. Of course, the last time I thought this Brooks ended up with less than 50 yards from scrimmage. At this price range though, it’s hard not to take the chance.
Top Tier:
N’Keal Harry ($8,100): I’m more inclined to pay up for Harry than Hollywood since Harry is the clear focal point of the Arizona State offense. Oklahoma had four receiving touchdowns last week and none went to Brown. For the money, Harry looks like the safer play, but Brown may have the better upside. It’s just the risk you take using someone from an offense with so many weapons..
Hakeem Butler ($7,200): Butler was huge in the upset over West Virginia, and has topped 20 DraftKings points three times this year. Texas Tech still allows a ton of passing yards. There is a chance that Tech shuts down Montgomery. If they do, it’s going to be a huge day for Purdy and Butler among others. This is the safest way to attack the Texas Tech defense.
Antoine Wesley ($7,100): Wesley has been the favorite target by a pretty large margin with Alan Bowman as the quarterback. When Duffey was back there, it was spread out a little more. With Bowman back, Wesley hauled in nine catches for 155 yards. Expect the high volume to be headed Wesley’s way again this weekend.
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Middle Tier:
CeeDee Lamb ($7,000): Lamb has a touchdown in every game this season with the exception of the opener. His nose for the end zone makes him perhaps a more productive target than Brown. They do take a little value away from each other, especially when both are priced in the top ten of receivers. Take the one you can afford. Take both. Whatever goes with your roster build.
Jalen Reagor ($6,900): I like Reagor with Turpin dismissed from the team. His only catch against Oklahoma was a touchdown, so at the very least Reagor is the target for Collins in the red zone. There is a lot up in the air for TCU right now, but Reagor should remain the constant. That counts for something.
Ja’Deion High ($6,000): High is the poor man’s Wesley. His target numbers are about the same, but Wesley has more big play ability. That’s not to say this is an unreasonable price for High. High has double digit DraftKings points in every game this season. That’s consistency I can buy into!
Bargain Shoppers:
Michael Pittman Jr.($5,400): Pittman notched 100 receiving yards against a tough Utah defense with a 17 year old quarterback. What can he do against this porous Arizona State secondary? Daniels has begun looking to Pittman more recently, and the USC offense has jumped to life as a result. Look for this to continue.
Deshaunte Jones ($4,900): Jones has caught a touchdown in both games with Purdy under center. He did only catch one pass last week, so that could mean he is a bit of a risk. However, going against this Texas Tech secondary, this looks like a risk worth taking.
Al’Dontre Davis ($3,800): If Davis’ five receptions last week are any indication, it looks as though Davis will be the heir apparent to all of Turpin’s targets. Davis could be a huge bargain here. That said, with the receiving corps kind of in flux and a new quarterback under center, the pecking order is far from secure right now. There is a lot of risk in this offense outside of Reagor.
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