DraftKings NBA Picks October 25: Ride the Detroit frontcourt again
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks October 25: Ride the Detroit frontcourt again
We only have four DraftKings NBA games tonight, making for a smaller DraftKings tournament slate. This is also my last NBA article for a while. I will be out of town getting some R&R, but I will still have my college football articles. I will turn over the DraftKings NBA articles to Kevin Ross for the next couple of weeks. Give him a read. I think you’ll like what you see!
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Cleveland and the Lakers are on the second night of a back to back. That may be something to keep an eye on.
The money line was very low at 269 last night. Despite having Dorian Finney-Smith in every lineup, I placed all but one lineup. My Twitter only entry hit big with Giannis and Damyean Dotson. My lineup with Giannis and Embiid crept up into the 300’s for a strong finish.
The winning lineup was a strong 378.75 DraftKings points. He built around Giannis, Kawhi, and Ayton. He got huge value from Kent Bazmore along with Dotson and Cameron Payne.
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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($10,500): Westbrook put up 58.5 DraftKings points and played 35 minutes in his season debut, so he looks safe to use here. This will be a fairly tough matchup against Boston, but I don’t care if the Thunder win or lose. I just want to know Russ is going to get me 5x value. I would say he is a pretty strong bet to do so.
Damian Lillard ($8,700): Lillard has at least 45 DraftKings points in all three games this year, including against the Spurs. Orlando has actually done pretty well against point guards this year, but Lillard still looks underpriced here. It’s not that I don’t trust Russ. I just don’t trust Russ to outscore Lillard by $1,800 worth, or about ten DraftKings points.
Honorable Mention:
Kyrie Irving ($7,300): We know what Irving is capable of, and it’s far above where he is priced at here. Yes, I realize that Irving is off to a slow start. However, he looked good against Orlando in his last outing, even tracking down eight rebounds. This Boston team is deep, so you can’t really expect a huge game from Irving, but 50 DraftKings points is still a real possibility. There aren’t many players at this price point that have that kind of upside.
Lonzo Ball ($6,400): Rondo is still serving his suspension, and Ball is no longer on a minutes limit. At least he wasn’t last night. The Lakers’ back to back is at home, so maybe Ball wont be limited here. Just make sure you keep track of this leading up to tipoff. If Ball is limited, go all in on Hart.
Dark Horses:
Jamal Murray ($5,900): Murray only played 19 minutes against the Kings with his sore leg, but he still racked up 29.75 DraftKings points in those 19 minutes. With a couple of days off, expect Murray to be back up to speed here against a Lakers team that is still without Rondo and Ingram. There is a lot of potential for Murray at this price point so long as he isn’t limited.
Ish Smith ($4,400): Smith continues to poach regular minutes from Reggie Jackson, playing 29, 28, and 33 minutes in the three games so far this year. Smith has topped 7x value in two of those three games, so you know the pricing is a little off. So long as it is, its safe to ride Smith as a value pick in any format.
My pick: Lillard(PG), Smith(G); Smith(PG)
DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Gary Harris ($6,500): Harris’s numbers didn’t take a jump like many hoped they would with Murray on the court at less than 100%. Harris does have at least 30 DraftKings points in three of the four games so far, so it’s hard to say that he isn’t worth this price. However, he may not have the upside that we really covet in these situations. Harris is more of a cash game play at this point.
Josh Hart ($6,200): Hart’s production suffered a little with Ball no longer on a minutes limit, but not enough for me to consider not playing him. The fact is that Hart has played at a high level no matter who is in or out of the lineup. His price is creeping up there to the point where it’s a little tougher to pay that much for someone that doesn’t start, but unless Hart’s production starts slipping, I see no reason to abandon yet.
Honorable Mention:
C.J. McCollum ($6,100): McCollum has had problems getting his shot to fall in the early going, so he hasn’t hit value yet. I guess the takeaway here is that the shots are there. When they start falling, McCollum is going to destroy value. That could happen tonight. For $6,100 on a short slate, it’s worth finding out in GPP formats.
Evan Fournier ($5,600): Fournier has 84 DraftKings points over the last two games after a pedestrian first two games. Portland is not an easy matchup on the perimeter, but Fournier has done well against stronger ranked outside teams. With Fournier also running the offense at times this year, I’m a big fan of what’s going on here. Fournier is too cheap for what he is producing.
Dark Horses:
Jordan Clarkson ($4,600): As was the case for most of last season, Clarkson has very little upside, but he is consistently around 6x value. One could argue that Clarkson is better in a bench role in limited minutes because that has been the case. When Clarkson starts, he’s usually average. Off the bench, he’s 6x value.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($3,900): KCP was “demoted” to the bench last night. The result was he led the Lakers with 32 minutes. KCP is still not producing like he did last year, but he finally hit 5x value last night. Barely. I suppose he has upside because we have seen KCP put up some really good numbers from time to time, but he is a risk since he seems to have trouble acclimating to the new look Lakers.
Lance Stephenson ($3,700): Stephenson led the team in scoring with 23 points last night, turning in by far his best game as a Laker. This team was explosive last night with Lance running wild on the second unit. KCP gets the minutes, but it was Stephenson that exploded last night. He and LeBron looked good out there together, so I tend to think that Stephenson is a high upside GPP play until Rondo and Ingram get back.
My pick: Stephenson(SG), Hart(UTIL); Fournier(SG), Stephenson(G)
DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($10,700): The Nuggets are going to be the formidable part of this back to back, so the Lakers made sure they rested a lot of their key pieces with this one getting out of hand. KCP led the team with 32 minutes. LeBron racked up 50.75 DraftKings points in just 28 minutes. He will play a lot more minutes than that tonight, so expect LeBron to be up around 60, making him a good place to anchor your lineup.
Paul George ($8,200): Russ comes back, George gets efficient. How does that work? George put up his third straight game of more than 40 DraftKings points, so his production on DraftKings hasn’t wavered more than five points in the three games. That makes George a consistent source of 5x value, but his upside is capped with Russ healthy.
Honorable Mention:
Kyle Kuzma ($7,400): This monstrous price hike comes on the heels of a pedestrian outing for Kuzma last night. The veterans did most of the heavy lifting last night, and even though Kuzma played the second most minutes on the team at 29, he had just 22 DraftKings points. The massive price jump makes Kuzma an autofade for me, but there is still upside, especially since they will need his size against Denver.
Cedi Osman ($5,900): Osman was a big disappointment against the Hawks on Monday, and another poor shooting night had Osman relegated to bystander for a lot of last night’s matchup. In fact, Osman played just 24 minutes last night, so that is cause for concern. There is decent potential against Detroit, but it’s hard to trust Osman going off of his two poor games this week.
Dark Horses:
Nik Stauskas ($4,000): The one game I played Stauskas, he was a dud. The other two he has a combined 66 DraftKings points. That makes Stauskas worth a GPP flier if you need to save some money. Stauskas is the big time bench scorer for Portland so far, and is way too cheap for the price. Most of the time, anyway.
Torrey Craig ($3,800): Craig pissed a lot of people off with a terrible night on Tuesday, but in hindsight, we should have seen this coming. Booker matches up better with the Kings, but Craig should match up better with the Ingram-less Lakers. That said, while Craig starts, he really isn’t a key component on either end of the court. There should be better value plays out there, even on a short slate.
My pick: Stauskas(SF); James(SF)
DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Blake Griffin ($9,600): Blake dropped 50 on the Sixers on Tuesday night with a ridiculous 82 DraftKings points. There isn’t much not to like about tonight’s matchup either. Love isn’t a great defender, and I doubt the Cavs put Thompson on Griffin. He should be tasked with trying to keep Drummond of the glass (he wont). The Detroit frontcourt is in position to dominate again.
Kevin Love ($8,500): Everything runs through Love on the offensive end now because it has to. That hasn’t meant consistent production for Love though. Love has one game in the 60’s, one in the 40’s and two in the 30’s. Step up and spin the Kevin Love roulette wheel! Personally, the buy in is a bit too steep for my liking.
Honorable Mention:
Jayson Tatum ($6,600): Gordon and Tatum canceled each other out in the last game, but there wont be any such player to do that to Tatum tonight. If they go after him with Adams, who handles Horford? Tatum looks primed to dominate Patrick Patterson and/or Jerami Grant here.
Paul Millsap ($5,800): The Nuggets are bringing Millsap along slowly here. His season high in minutes is 32, and that does put a cap on his production. Denver didn’t need Millsap much against the Kings, and he really doesn’t matchup well with the Warriors. In a game with the Lakers that should stay pretty close, I expect to see Millsap’s minutes back in the 30’s. His DraftKings points should be too.
Dark Horses:
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,000): Aminu’s defensive chops are the main reason that I’m off of Aaron Gordon tonight. After a slower start, Aminu hauled in 15 rebounds against Washington on Monday. Orlando is another team that Aminu should match up pretty well with. He could put up big numbers for the price, especially if Aminu carves out a larger role in the Portland offense this year.
Jonathan Isaac ($4,400): Any limitations that were on Isaac in the first week of the season appear to be off. Isaac has racked up 59.5 DraftKings points in just 54 minutes over the last two games. I don’t expect to see Isaac see 30 minutes yet, but there is a very good chance that he sees in the high 20’s which means he should hit 6x value with ease.
My pick: Griffin(PF), Isaac(F); Tatum(PF), Aminu(F), Griffin(C), Isaac(UTIL)
DraftKings NBA Center
Best Bets:
Nikola Jokic ($9,800): Jokic has a monster triple double, and three other games in the 40’s for DraftKings points. There is medium ground somewhere. It could be here against a Lakers team that is hungry to prove it’s not LeBron and the 11 dwarfs. I think there are better ways to spend the money, but Jokic is a threat for 80 on any given night.
Andre Drummond ($9,000): An elite rebounder against a mostly undersized front? Sign me up! Drummond still put up 46 DraftKings points despite getting tossed after 36 minutes, and that was with one of the worst shooting nights of his career. Blake went off after Drummond exited, but both are going to have all the opportunities they can handle tonight. Drummond still took 20 shots on Tuesday, so the volume is there for him to put up truly massive numbers.
Honorable Mention:
Steven Adams ($6,800): We could see Adams continue most of the production that he showed when Westbrook was sidelined. In Westbrook’s first game back, Adams still put up 37.5 DraftKings points, which leaves him at 5.5x value. The presence of Westbrook takes away some of the upside, but Adams still looks like a strong cash game play.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,700): Since the Blazers got Nurkic, he has put up good numbers when they play him more than 30 minutes. He racked up 52 DraftKings points against the Wizards on Sunday, and looks like he should play good minutes again tonight against Orlando. With late swap back in play, we can swap out Nurkic if news comes down that he isn’t starting.
Dark Horses:
JaVale McGee ($5,300): McGee has been outstanding for the Lakers thus far, and is starting to see more minutes. McGee has been between 31 and 41 DraftKings points in all four games. At worst, McGee has been 6x value. He is going to have his hands full against the Nuggets, but there is still decent upside at this price.
Larry Nance ($4,400): The Cavs are still limiting Nance’s minutes, so that really caps his value. Still, Nance has hit 5x value despite not playing 20 minutes yet. It seems unlikely that Nance hits that mark in the second night of a back to back either. Realize what you are buying here. You are buying low upside because of a minutes restriction, but Nance has been good when on the court.
My pick: Drummond(C); N/A
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