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Fantasy Football: Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 8

By Matt McGarvey

TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 21: Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts after a play during the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Browns on October 2, 2018 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 26-23 in overtime. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 21: Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts after a play during the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Browns on October 2, 2018 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 26-23 in overtime. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) /
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TAMPA, FL – OCTOBER 21: Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts after a play during the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Browns on October 2, 2018 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 26-23 in overtime. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) Fantasy Football /

Fantasy Football: Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 8

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate Fantasy Football predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story. Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

*Funnel Defense refers to a noticeable difference in DVOA between pass defense and rush defense.

Pass Funnel Defenses:

TB (Pass: 32nd, Run: 10th), OAK (Pass: 31st, Run: 14th), NO (Pass: 30th, Run: 2nd), CAR (Pass: 26th, Run: 6th), IND (Pass: 21st, Run: 8th), DAL (Pass: 25th, Run: 3rd),

Oakland ranks 31st against the pass and 14th against the run

Indianapolis will head to the “Black Hole” to take on the, openly tanking, Raiders. This game opened as a pick’em, but the Colts have been bet out to now sit as a -3 favorite. Andrew Luck and the passing offense are on track to break the record for passes thrown in a season, and they’ll have a favorable matchup, as the Raiders defense ranks 31st against the pass and 14th against the run. As a whole unit, they rank 29th, and I would envision the Colts offense having success this week. Indianapolis has faced the 8th toughest schedule off opposing defenses and they’ll now have their easiest matchup so far against the Raiders (SharpFootballStats.com). With additions like Anthony Castonzo back on the offensive line, I like the Colts to exceed their projected team total this week.

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Run Funnel Defenses:

KC (Pass: 12th, Run: 32nd), GB (Pass: 15th, Run 29th), WAS (Pass: 13th, Run: 26th), PHI (Pass: 11th, Run: 23rd), LARM (Pass: 7th, Run: 24th), DEN (Pass: 2nd, Run 28th), CLE (Pass: 1st, Run: 25th)

Overall Inefficient Defenses:

TB (32nd), ATL (31st), DET (30th), OAK (29th), NYG (28th), CIN (27th)

Cincinnati Ranks 27th in Overall Defensive Efficiency

Tampa Bay will head to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals, who are coming off of a prime time loss in Kansas City. Cincinnati has had their fair share of success on offense, but they have had to keep pace, as the defense has not held up their end of the bargain. Through seven games, the have allowed an average of 29 points per game and rank 27th in overall defensive efficiency. The Tampa Bay offense should be able to take advantage of this mismatch, as they rank 11th in offensive efficiency and specifically, 6th in passing. It tough to narrow down the skill position players due to how well the Tampa Bay offense spreads the ball around, but Jameis has a legitimate shot to be the highest scoring quarterback this week.

Next. DFS NFL Week 8 Game by Game Breakdown. dark

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