NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday October 25
Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
For the first night in a while, winning GPP scores were relatively tame, especially for a 9 game slate although it still took 350 points on FantasyDraft to take down the $25 Pick and Roll. Giannis Antetokounmpo was the star of the night with a massive 80 fantasy point night and the Golden State duo of Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant at less than 5% ownership compared to the uber-chalk Lakers/Suns stars was the key pivot to jumping over the field on this night.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Top Guard Plays:
We have a solid four game slate tonight with some clear superstar plays, some massive Vegas totals and no game with more than a 7 point spread so there seems to be plenty of avenues we can attack in our NBA DFS rosters.
Russell Westbrook ($18.7K) at under $20K on a slate where everyone is going to rush to stack up LeBron and Jokic at similar price points makes this an interesting pivot in tournaments. We saw this last night on a larger slate where LeBron was nearly 50% owned in the “best spot” while Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant were 5% or less owned in a similarly solid spot without the same lofty Vegas total.
Westbrook returned to the court on Sunday and was back to Beastbrook mode, playing 35 minutes and leading the Thunder with a near 34% usage rate while putting up 1.63 FP/M. Now the Celtics defense is strong and this is the same Boston team that held Russ under 50 FPTS in both meetings last season – but these are stats everyone else is going to see too and with this OKC/Boston game having only a 212 total, 27 points behind the Lakers/Nuggets, we could see a one-man DFS wrecking crew go crazy under-owned tonight.
The Lakers/Nuggets as mentioned has a massive 239 total and only a 4 point spread and with Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram still suspended – this becomes the clear top spot for a game stack once again. Do not worry about the back to back for the Lakers either, their game versus the Suns was over by halftime and the starters all got to rest from the mid-way point of the 3rd quarter on.
Lonzo Ball ($12.5K) is once again in play as the starting PG and with Josh Hart ($12K) taking over the starting SG spot over KCP last night, this becomes a very reasonable starting back-court to lock in for DFS purposes tonight. Run it back on the other side with Gary Harris ($12.2K) and Jamal Murray ($11.3K) and this back-court game stack becomes one of the more cost-effective ways to approach this slate.
Hart and Murray are my two favorite plays here if forced to choose as we have seen Hart’s upside and all-around game and this was a match-up last year that Murray excelled in when given the minutes. When he played 30+ minutes against the Lakers last season, Murray averaged 42 FPTS/G which would return 3.7x value at this reduced price point.
Do not simply look at the game logs for either game as the Lakers blew out the Suns last night and the Nuggets had a similar game script against the Kings where the starters all checked out in the third quarter so they should be well rested for this Western Conference showdown.
NBA DFS – Guard Pivot Plays:
With Westbrook versus the Celtics and the big Lakers/Nuggets total staring everyone in the face, it feels like the first two games of the night – the Cavaliers/Pistons and Portland/Orlando will be the forgotten games on a four game NBA DFS slate which makes these plays solid pivot options across the board.
Damian Lillard ($16K) is kind of priced in no mans land – nearly $3K behind Russ and nearly the same $3-4K ahead of guys like Kyrie Irving and the Lakers/Nuggets guards. Orlando is sitting 25th in pace to start the year and is ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, again giving you more reasons to avoid this price point for Dame.
Think this one through for a second though – Dame is averaging just under 48 FP/G in his first three games this season with a 32% usage rate and near 1.4 FP/M of production and will face-off with a Magic PG in D.J. Augustin who just gave up 45 FPTS to Kyrie Irving. The price point on Dame is really intriguing here on FantasyDraft as there is still room for profit and what feels like a safe floor if you want a pivot off the higher priced studs tonight.
Speaking of Kyrie Irving ($13.4K), he will get a nice pace-up spot against OKC in their building and a chance to face off with Russ and company who he dropped 48 FPTS on last season in their only meeting. The Celtics have failed to score over 105 points in a game this season which given this high-scoring landscape in the NBA thus far makes them a difficult team to build around given the low scoring nature and slow pace combined with their deep rotation.
After losing at home to the Magic and Coach Brad Stevens saying after the game “We have a lot of work to do…we are not as good as everyone thinks we are,” – this nationally televised TNT game on the road feels like an early season statement game for Kyrie and the Celtics. This is probably not the best game stack but with Kyrie leading the Celtics with 19 FGA last game and averaging over 17 FGA per game, this Westbrook/Kyrie pairing could be a lower owned pivot due to their low Vegas total.
One player that I assume will be completely ignored tonight is Dennis Schroder ($12.8K) who as soon as we got the Westbrook news, I joked “RIP to Schroder’s Fantasy Value” – but look a little closer at the game flow in that outing. Schroder logged 32 minutes of court time, checking in mostly for SG Terrance Ferguson and playing alongside Westbrook for the majority of that game. In both halves, Schroder came in mid-way through the 1st/3rd quarter – played alongside Westbrook and Paul George and was left on the court to run the second team when they both came out for breaks. Schroder only had a 23.7% usage rate in that game which is a slight downgrade from his 28-29% usage the first few games without Westbrook but the minutes could still be there and if everyone just assumes, like I did, his fantasy value is done, than this could be a sneaky single digit ownership play that has difference making ability on a four game slate.
NBA DFS – Core Front Court Plays:
Forward/Center looks like the most top-heavy position on this four game slate with all of the high-dollar plays looking like strong investments.
The LeBron James ($19.4K) and Nikola Jokic ($18.3K) pairing will likely be a chalky duo much in the same way we saw LeBron and Booker/Ayton on Wednesday night but it is hard to argue with either player as a first man in considering the Lakers suspensions and the injury to Will Barton which has required the Joker to step his game up.
Blake Griffin (17.2K) is coming off a massive 80+ fantasy point game and will take on a Cavaliers team tonight who just got throttled by the Brooklyn Nets and frankly I am unsure how exactly to attack this game. Blake and Andre Drummond ($16.5K) are both priced way up and with them both healthy and on their court, I wonder how much profit potential is left in these price points? Kevin Love ($15.5K) was in a smash spot on paper last night and even though he still got a double-double he was limited in minutes due to a Nets blow-out and now has to fight for rebounds against the Pistons big men. The more I look at this game the more I feel like everyone gets you 30-40 fantasy points but nobody really puts up a monster game that breaks the slate.
Kyle Kuzma ($14.4K) was one of the most popular plays on the board last night and I see no reason not to expect that again as he draws the starting assignment in place of Brandon Ingram. Kuzma is just one game removed from a 50 burger against the Spurs and at this price you are going to need that again to hit 3.5x value. JaVale McGee ($10.4K) just continued to deliver on his price point, with 41 fantasy points last night after averaging 35 fantasy points in his previous three games. Honestly, it is tough to argue right now that there is a better point per dollar play from the Lakers than McGee and with his interior presence needed against the Joker tonight, I see no reason not to go right back to him.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays in the Front Court:
With the expectation that the Lakers/Nuggets front court plays are the chalk and with the price points on the Pistons/Cavaliers big men being so high, it leaves really with two games left to find our pivot plays.
The Thunder-Boston is the game I just keep coming back to, against what Vegas is trying to tell me with the slate’s lowest total. With Westbrook on the floor last game, the Thunder played at a pace of 111 possessions which would be the highest mark in the NBA this season – now, I get it, that was one game and it was against the fast-paced Kings and not the Celtics but with Westbrook on the court this becomes a totally different animal.
Steven Adams ($12.3K) is my favorite correlation play with Russ because Adams game just works so perfectly alongside a high usage guy like Westbrook – get easy buckets around the hoop and gobble up all the boards from the fast pace misses. Adams has a double-double in every single game this season and is averaging over 40 fantasy points per game.
Interestingly enough, the Boston/OKC total opened at 210 (lowest on the slate) and has gone up 5 points to 215 which has now surpassed Portland/Orlando. With Boston without Aron Baynes tonight, we should see similar rotations for the Celtics as we saw last game when they ran a relatively tight nine man rotation with their core four – Kyrie, Horford, Tatum and Brown – playing 30+ minutes. One thing I noticed (and maybe I am late to the party here) is that the Celtics are starting Marcus Morris in the second half of games and using Gordon Hayward off the bench as he works his way back from injury. At $8.4K on FantasyDraft, Morris would need 25 points to hit 3.5x value (our GPP “target”) and has games of 27 and 35 already this season (note – the 27 FPT game was without Hayward).
Portland-Orlando is loaded with secondary front-court options all in price ranges that make them logical pivots off the Kyle Kuzma‘s of the world tonight. Nikola Vucevic averaged 40 FPTS/G against Portland last season while Aaron Gordon struggled to eclipse 30 FPTS in either outing so there is potentially a lack of “upside” here and certainly a riskier floor. I know AG will have to tangle with Al-Farouq Aminu which is a tough individual match-up but we know the ceiling with Gordon who has gone for 47+ FPTS (3.5x value) in two of his four outings this season against Philly and Miami.
The cheaper pivot here may be Jonathan Isaac ($8.6K) who struggled out of the gate due to a preseason ankle injury but has now played 26 and 27 minutes in his last two games including a 37.5 FPT double-double (18/12) versus the Celtics last time out. Interestingly enough, from a Def-Eff perspective the two spots this year to attack Portland are at SF/PF as they rank 23rd and 26th respectively at the position.
NBA DFS – Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please note – the sample NBA DFS line-up noted below is not meant to be a Plug and Play build and is merely an illustrative example based off the picks laid out in this article.
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G: Russell Westbrook ($18.7K)
G: Kyrie Irving ($13.4K)
G: Josh Hart ($12K)
F/C: JaVale McGee ($10.4K)
F/C: Aaron Gordon ($13.2K)
F/C: Jonathan Isaac ($8.6K)
UTIL: Steven Adams ($12.3K)
UTIL: Jamal Murray ($11.3K)
Slate Overview: It feels like a near must to get some Lakers-Nuggets exposure but I also have to take something away from Wednesday night’s slate. If LeBron/Jokic are going to be 40-50% owned in tournaments like we saw with Bron/Ayton/Booker/Kuzma last night then I think pivoting off the stars in this game may be the way to go. Now that does not mean we avoid the game entirely as the mid-range plays here are great values – McGee, Murray, Hart etc – so eat the chalk there and differentiate elsewhere. Enjoy this slate, it looks like a really good one.
Next. FanDuel NBA DFS Picks for Thursday October 25. dark
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