Real Madrid travel to Camp Nou for El Clasico in the midst of a crisis

Julen Lopetegui needs a win in El Clasico to regain the support of Florentino Perez and the rest of the Real Madrid board.

Zinedine Zidane was always going to be a tough act to follow after leading Real Madrid to three Champions League titles in a row. The job of replacing Zidane was made considerably harder when Cristiano Ronaldo left for Juventus in the summer. To make matters even more complicated, the man Real appointed as Zidane’s replacement, Julen Lopetegui, was sacked by Spain on the eve of the World Cup for the way he handled the announcement of his new job.

So it’s fair to say Lopetegui had far from ideal preparation coming into one of the biggest jobs in the sport. He needed a strong start to his tenure to establish a solid foothold at the club and take away attention from the circumstances of his arrival. Instead, he lost his first competitive match, in the Super Cup against Atletico Madrid, and after winning three consecutive league games to start the season, has won just two out of his last eight in all competitions.

Real also went 481 minutes without scoring a single goal, the longest goal drought in the club’s history. Last season, Real also had seriously early-season issues, and had more or less lost the league by Christmas, but Zidane had a track record of success (not to mention his status as a club legend and all-time great player) to fall back on. Lopetegui has no such insurance. Losing to Alaves is bad, but being beaten in terms of xG, 0.95-0.84 per Understat, is humiliating.

A win against Barcelona on Sunday, the first Clasico of the season and the first not to feature either Ronaldo or Lionel Messi in over a decade, would give Lopetegui some much-needed time to continue integrating his philosophy. And, it must be said, Real’s situation is more than salvageable. They’re only four points behind league leaders Barcelona, and are heavy favorites to top their Champions League group, despite a loss to CSKA Moscow.

For a club of Real’s stature, though, it’s been a disastrous start to the season, even if they’re still challenging on all fronts. A loss on Sunday is likely to see Lopetegui sacked by the famously impatient Florentino Perez.

The international break gave Lopetegui a chance to work on some of the issues plaguing his team, so it was interesting to see a change of formation in their first match after the break, against Levante, when Real reverted to a 4-3-3. The absence of Marcelo and Isco due to injury has had a major impact creatively, but sticking with the 4-4-2 diamond was a poor choice with both players sidelined. So far, they’ve failed to solve Real’s problems since returning, though Marcelo did end the goal drought in the second half against Levante.

A 4-3-3 could work against Barcelona. It would enable faster attacking transitions and allow their wingers, like Gareth Bale, to exploit the space Barca tend to leave in wide areas. Real were good at this under Zidane, but the slower buildup play Lopetegui requires more patience and seems to be hurting the attack.

Bale has a lot to prove in the wake of Ronaldo’s exit, and needs to perform consistently on the big occasions. With Messi out, he will be arguably the biggest star in Sunday’s game, and should have an interesting battle against speedy left-back Jordi Alba. Alba’s superb getting forward, but he leaves space behind him, which Bale will look to exploit.

History isn’t on Lopetegui’s side. Real have only won twice in the last 10 matches in this fixture in the league, although one of those was at the Camp Nou. In that time, Barcelona have won six times, including 4-0 and 3-0 victories at the Santiago Bernabeu. Real humiliated the Catalans in the Super Cup last season with a 5-1 aggregate victory, but that proved to be a false reflection of the two teams’ quality, as Barca won the league with ease.

The last match between the two saw them play out an entertaining 2-2 draw at the Camp Nou, as Barca put in a spirited performance to hold on with 10 men after Sergi Roberto was sent off. There was only an unbeaten league season for Barcelona on the line as they had already won the title by that point. If this match comes close to that 2-2 draw in terms of entertainment, it should be a real treat. Though not, if Real can’t win, for Lopetegui.