Is the MVP race already a two-man competition between Giannis and AD?

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis have run roughshod over the NBA through the first 10 days. Here’s why the MVP race might already be theirs alone.

“It’s early, but…” is a corollary that starts off most NBA think pieces put out before trick-or-treaters start making the rounds, and with good reason. Eight days in a basketball season is almost negligible, equivalent to three-quarters of an NFL game. A lot can — and will — change.

So yes, it’s early, but it already seems as if the MVP race is down to a two-man match play event. Other than one of them getting hurt, it’s tough to imagine a scenario where Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis aren’t battling for this thing down to the end, head and (very broad) shoulders above everyone else.

At press time, they play for two of the five undefeated teams left in the league who also happen to own two of the top five point differentials The counting stats are comical across the board — AD is currently throwing up a 30.3/13.0/5.8/3.3/2.0 stat line with a 66 true shooting percentage, while the Freak is at 28.5/16.5(!)/6.8/1.8/1.0 with a league-leading 35.7 usage rate. These are the opening-weekend-of-a-comic-book-movie version of NBA stats.

Really though, its not about them. We knew the numbers for both would be robust. This is more about the other competitors, and for some them, the “it’s early, but…” caveat may already fail to apply.

Heading into the season, Vegas pegged Davis and Antetokounmpo as the second and third leading contenders for the league’s top prize. Going down the list, it seems like we may already have a few cross-offs.

As with most things in the NBA, the conversation starts with LeBron James, the preseason favorite. He’s been his usual Bronny self, but the Lakers started 0-3 before passing Go (Phoenix) for their first win of the season before taking care of business at home against Denver on Thursday night.

A 2-3 record isn’t terrible, and a slow start isn’t necessarily a death knell. Dirk’s Mavs started off 0-4 in 2006-07 before rolling to 67 wins and Nowitzki capturing the MVP. This Lakers team doesn’t seem to have quite the same makeup though, as the defense and shooting look unbefitting of a 50-win outfit. For James to win the award on this kind of squad, he’d have to put up preposterous stats, and at 34-years-old by season’s end, that doesn’t figure to be the case.

The Houston Rockets, meanwhile, are 1-3 and scuffling. Harden already rubs a lot of people the wrong way, and his MVP felt like something voters were happy to put in the rearview mirror. While repeat winners happen more often than you’d think (five times since 2001), Harden’s recent bum hammy is already putting that scenario in doubt. If Houston trades for Jimmy Butler, it really makes a double-dip unlikely.

Fifth in the preseason odds was Kawhi Leonard, whose Toronto Raptors are 5-0 and look primed to make a run at 60-plus wins and the one seed. Leonard’s averaging 28, which is classic MVP candidacy stuff on a team like this. He’s already been rested once though, and with the Raps appearing loaded, it’s easy to see that becoming a trend.

Harden missed ten games and won it last year, but his prime competition was LeBron, who effectively took two months off from playing defense. The competition won’t be so kind this season.

Looking at the rest of the top 12, the same reasons to doubt their viability before the season still exist, and some new ones have popped up. Kyrie Irving still doesn’t look like himself, and the Celtics appear to need a longer integration process with their returning pieces than some anticipated. Donovan Mitchell is feeling the sophomore slump. Russell Westbrook’s Thunder appear to be woefully short on shooting to the point that the playoffs might not be a given (his 0-for-7 fourth quarter in Thursday’s loss to the Celtics that also included three turnovers was classic Russ in the worst way). Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid still figure to cancel each other out, and Embiid’s continued chicanery won’t endear himself to voters. Ditto for Kevin Durant and Steph Curry (although Steph’s 51 points on 24 shots vs Washington was a reminder that if he ever wanted to make a run at a third trophy, he probably could. Steve Kerr knows better than to let him push it though).

That leaves the dark horses. With all due respect to Blake Griffin, 65.2 percent 3-point shooting feels slightly unsustainable, and his health is always a question.

The name to remember moving forward is Nikola Jokic. As the Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor wrote about this week, the Denver Nuggets have figured out a way to not only survive on defense with the Joker on the floor, but thrive. He’s leading all centers in assists, and pitched a perfect game already this season. With a win over the Warriors under their belt and the second-best defensive rating in the NBA, its not crazy to imagine Denver winning enough games to give Jokic a legitimate shot.

Even so, that only seems possible if the top two dogs falter…yet everything Davis and Antetokounmpo are doing feels utterly sustainable. Their teams appear to have figured out how to feature each superstar in a way that not only amplifies their respective talents but will lead to wins all season long. The fact that they’re doing things at their size that no one has ever done before also gives an air of novelty to the race. Voters love narratives, and two 25-and-under dudes battling for the future of the NBA is about as good as it gets.

Things can change, of course. Giannis was the early leader last year before coming back down to earth. Two years ago, Harden seemingly had the award wrapped up by midseason, only to see Russ stat-hunt his way to the trophy by April. During Steph’s first MVP campaign, he went from pre-All-Star Game contender, shooting 39.9 percent from deep, to runaway winner, hitting 51.7 percent of his 3s after the break. Stuff happens.

It won’t happen this year. Take the field at your own risk. We’re on the verge of these two human anomalies running the league for the next decade. This is only the first step.