Every week of the NFL season, I will provide you with my projected ownership of each position for the DraftKings NFL main slate. These DraftKings NFL Week 8 Ownership Projections are based on social trends, pricing, injury reports, match-ups and so on. Sources include beat reporters, weather reports, individual team injury reports, Pro Football Reference, Fantasy Data and FanShare Sports.
For clarity, we will only be analyzing the main slate of the week (1PM and 4PM EST games) on DraftKings NFL which includes the new version of the Millionaire Maker, Roman’s Fantasy Football Millionaire.
In this DraftKings NFL breakdown, I will identify who I believe are the chalk plays you can’t avoid and where you can find the best pivot plays.
Follow me on Twitter @AlexMcKinnonDFS for late breaking news that may affect ownership and chalk.
The best thing that can happen to your DraftKings NFL lineup is finding a low owned, high reward player who can separate you from the competition. There is no better feeling than seeing your top WR score two touchdowns and noticing he is only owned by 2% of the field.
This season, I will provide you with who I expect to be the highest owned players at each position along with some of the top expected performers with low ownership expectations. I will also provide my picks per position based on the ownership and pricing relationship and isolate a few hidden gems.
"A contrarian is a person that takes up a contrary position, especially a position that is opposed to that of the majority."
One thing I will mention regularly is value or ‘hitting value’. What that means is a player scored enough fantasy points to be worth his price tag. What I consider to be value is landing in the ‘cash’ of a particular contest or tournament and making a profit off of your initial entry. The metric we use to discern the value is your players multiplier or Points/Price equation. For example, Player X costs $6700 and this week on DraftKings he managed to score 20.7 DK points. You would then take the point (20.7) and divide it by the players cost by moving a decimal over three spots from the right (stay with me). In this case, $6700 would turn into 6.7 or 6.7K. 20.7 DK Points divided by 6.7 would be 3.09, and that number signifies the ‘value’ of a player. Player X scored 3.09 times his cost.
On to Week 8 where we are missing some major players from the Texans, Saints, Vikings, Falcons, Chargers and Patriots. At this point of the season, we have a better understanding of how players on the slate will be used (snap counts and targets) and we will help you identify the best plays on a thin slate in our position-by-position breakdown…
Week 8 QBs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership
To say Patrick Mahomes ($7000) has taken advantage of his opportunity as a starting QB would be criminal understatement. Mahomes has only one game where he had over 40 pass attempts which was against his opponent for Week 8, the Denver Broncos. In that week 4 performance, Mahomes was 28 of 45 for 304 yards but only threw 1 TD. Despite it being his season high in attempts, it was statistically his second worst performance behind Week 5 (313 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INT against Jacksonville. To the credit of Mahomes, he had a rushing TD in both match ups. Coming off of back-to-back 4 TD outings, Mahomes will look to take advantage of his first career ‘second look’ at a team.
With that being said, I would be hesitant in following the chalk this week. Mahomes has shown the ability to look human at points during the season and his price tag, $7000, is far and away the highest on the slate. The Broncos are also the 4th best unit against QBs on DraftKings this season, allowing only 16.4 DK points per game.
Aaron Rodgers ($6400) will face a Rams team that has demolished teams through the first 7 weeks of season with a +107 point differential, leading the next best (Chiefs) by 29 points. The consensus among the DFS community is that this contest has the makings of an afternoon shootout and will be a heavy target amongst DraftKings and Fanduel participants. After week 1 where Rodgers only had 30 pass attempts, he has thrown the ball 40 times or more in every contest including 98 attempts over the past two weeks. Rodgers is coming off of back-to-back 400+ yard performances with 0 INTs and has even added some rushing yards along the way. The Rams have allowed the 7th fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing QBs at 17.1 per game but this may be a game where you can ignore previous defensive metrics. At $6400, Rodgers will fill that market for DraftKings players looking to fade Mahomes’ ownership and price.
In an odd turn of events following 288 pass attempts thru the first 6 weeks, Andrew Luck ($6300) threw the ball a mere 23 times and accumulated a season low 156 yards. In an even more perplexing statistical note, Luck matched his season high with 4 passing TDs and threw no interceptions registering a 131.5 passer rating. Luck has thrown 15 touchdowns in the past 4 weeks and appears to be completely healthy despite not being able to say the same for his receiving corps. With Jack Doyle, Marlon Mack and TY Hilton all expected to play, this could be a blow up spot for Luck against a Raiders team that seems to be trying to set a record for 1st round picks acquired in a season. Being within $100 of Aaron Rodgers may keep his ownership slightly down for those looking to pivot.
Jameis Winston ($6000) continues to be a DFS favorite since his return to action in Week 4. In the past two weeks, Winston has thrown the ball 93 times for 760 yards, 4 TDs and 4 INTs. That includes a week 7 performance where he had 0 TDs and 2 INTs but saved those who rostered him with 55 rushing yards and a TD in a 26-23 win against Cleveland. Winston and the Buccaneers face a Bengals team that will certainly give them some trouble and could very likely loss to Cincinnati on the road. Winston is almost more valuable in these situations as he will likely be throwing the ball in volume towards the end of the game against a Bengals team that allows 25.9 DraftKings points per game to opposing QBs, 5th worst in the NFL. Winston falls in the high-risk, high-reward category almost every week and will be a hard fade for those looking to roster him at $6000.
Jared Goff ($6000) doesn’t have the same buzz heading into this week as some of the options above, but should see a nice push as we head into Sunday’s ‘Game of the Week’. During their red-hot start to the season (7-0), most of the attention for the Rams has been spotlighted on Todd Gurley, and for good reason. In the red zone, Goff is actually more active then you would expect with a back like Gurley behind him. He has the 4th most pass attempts (47) and 5th in touchdowns (10) when in the red zone. He has only totaled 403 yards over the past two weeks with 2 TDs and 1 INT but was able to piece together 1,494 yards with 10 touchdowns in the previous 4 weeks against the Cardinals, Vikings, Chargers and Seahawks. When he has to, he can keep up with the best of them in a shootout and it looks like this will be one of those weeks. He also matches Jameis Winston at $6000, a nice savings for the DraftKings community. He’s also an assassin at home…
Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk?
Although I certainly see the argument for Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and even Jared Goff, I am really keying in on Andrew Luck against the Raiders this week with his favorite targets all in attendance. His high volume of pass attempts creates an incredibly high floor and the lack of a feature running back behind him, his arm is the Colts premiere weapon. Luck has 52 pass attempts (1st) with 17 TDs (1st) with a 71.43% completion rate (1st) and only 1 INT in the red-zone including 11 TDs within 10 yards of the end zone making him lethal in any situation.
Week 8 QBs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets
The options are thin this weekend on the main slate with Deshaun Watson, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins all on a bye or in a primetime game in Week 8. That being said, you are going to have to get a little cute when identifying the correct QB to play.
Matthew Stafford ($5600) has thrown 2 or more touchdowns in his last 5 starts and has only surrendered 1 interception as the Lions have slowly improved to 3-3 heading into Week 8. Unfortunately, he has only thrown for over 300 yards twice this season and has a combined 400 passing yards total in the past two weeks. With an improved rushing attack and unique game scripts, Stafford has been unable to let loose this season. After throwing the ball 99 times in the first two weeks, he has only compiled 114 attempts in the past 4 games. With that said, he heads into an important match up against another 3-3 opponent in the Seattle Seahawks in Detroit this weekend. The Seahawks are 2nd best in the league, only allowing 15.2 DraftKings points per game to opposing QBs. That being said, I like Stafford and his $5600 price tag as a unique pivot play in what could be a bit of a shootout in Michigan.
Baker Mayfield ($5700) gets his first crack at NFC North foe, the Pittsburgh Steelers in a match up that can revive the hopes of Browns fans or send them towards the depths of the AFC once again. The Steelers have been torched by opposing QBs through 7 weeks (6 games) allowing 26.4 DraftKings points per game (4th most). Baker’s lone 300+ yard performance came in his second start against an elite Ravens defense where he threw for 342 yards. Since then, he has yet to eclipse 240 yards and has thrown no more than 2 TDs in a single contest. Baker did execute last week in some capacity with his legs against the Buccaneers rushing for 43 yards. To increase his value going forward, utilizing his escape abilities would be a welcomed sight for the DFS community. I expect Baker and his $5700 price tag to make a decent amount of noise against a fragile Steelers defense.
It sickens me to type out the name Josh Rosen ($4800) as a member of the ‘sharp contrarian plays’ of the week, but here we are. Rosen has been borderline abysmal to start his rookie campaign for an admittedly talent-less Cardinals team. Outside of grizzled vet, Larry Fitzgerald, Rosen is left with a budding rookie in Christian Kirk and then a pile of unsharpened tools behind them. Cardinals franchise running back David Johnson is clearly still working his way back from his season-ending injury last year and has been relatively invisible in the passing game. How do you fix it? Give him a meatball of a match up against a San Francisco 49ers team that was recently demoralized by the Packers and the Rams and is sitting at 8th in the league allowing 22.6 DraftKings points per game to opposing QBs. Rosen has yet to throw for more than 240 yards including 3 of his 4 starts under 200 yards and has no more than a single TD in a game. At $4800, you need a mere 14-16 DK points to make it work.
In a similar price range, Sam Darnold ($4500) has had a slightly more successful start to his first year but certainly has a tougher match up than Rosen. Through 7 weeks, Darnold has an even 10 touchdown, 10 interception stat sheet to go along with 1,552 yards and a rushing TD in his last game against the Vikings. The Bears will be a really tough test for the rookie in Chicago but they have been vulnerable against the QB thus far allowing 20.2 DraftKings points per game. With Bilal Powell out, Darnold has one less option to hand off the ball to in the backfield which should lead to a few more passes than his 31.5 attempt per game average. If Robby Anderson was to join Quincy Enunwa on the sidelines, my confidence certainly drops. At $4500, he’s a decent play if you’re looking to save the most possible dollars at this position.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?
My favorite play of this bunch will be Baker Mayfield for his high-celing against a dreadful Steelers defense. Mayfield has yet to have his break-out performance and his match up against Pittsburgh gives him that opportunity. If you are looking to go with a major punt play, take a shot with Sam Darnold.
Week 8 RBs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership
James Conner ($7500) has returned to form after a lull during weeks 2 thru 4 and is coming off of back-to-back 110+ yard rushing performances with 2 scores in each contest. He also has combined for 93 receiving yards on 8 catches in the last two weeks. Conner faced the worst and 5th worst defenses against the run on DraftKings in those two games and has a similar match up against the Browns this week. Cleveland has allowed the 10th most DK points per game at 28.4 and 8 rushing TDs (2nd most). Based on the mismatch, Conner could see a lot of action if the Steelers are able to pull away early. He also has a relatively friendly price tag at $7500 when you compare him to guys like Todd Gurley ($9800) and even Saquon Barkley ($8800). In what may be his last few weeks alone in the backfield, Conner can add to his impressive resume.
Kareem Hunt ($7100) is only on the field 65.08% of the time but has found a way to take advantage when he is out there. He has 4 straight games with 80 or more rushing yards and has recently exploded in the passing game with 160 yards and 3 TDs in his last two games bringing him to 9 total touchdowns through the ground and air through 7 weeks. The Chiefs should control the ball in volume against the Broncos this weekend who allow 29.2 DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs, 7th worst in the league. Similar to Conner, Hunt’s $7100 price gives DFS players a reason to pay down.
Phillip Lindsay’s week has finally arrived. With Royce Freeman being ruled out for week 8, Lindsay will only have to fly-swat the feeble Devontae Booker for carries this week against the 3rd worst defense against the run on DraftKings, the Kansas City Chiefs who have allowed 33.6 DK points per game. Phillip Lindsay ($5200) is third in the league in yards per attempt with 5.8 trailing behind only Matt Breida (6.5) and Kerryon Johnson (6.4). Lindsay has also played a decent role in the passing game as well, with 15 catches over 20 targets. With Demaryius Thomas also facing a wrist ailment and trade rumors, Lindsay will likely join Emmanuel Sanders as the workhorses for the Broncos on Sunday. At $5200, Lindsay will be a hard fade despite his high ownership.
Behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, Raheem Mostert (Yes, Raheem Mostert), is primed for a huge game against the Cardinals who are the 2nd worst defense against the run, allowing 35.4 DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs. With Breida’s status uncertain at best and Alfred Morris rushing for a measly 3.6 yards per attempt on 71 carries, Raheem Mostert ($3800) is the guy for San Francisco this weekend. Although his is not eligible to be considered a near league leader, Mostert’s 6.3 yards per attempt on 25 rushes (157 yards) has been very impressive. The best part? Mostert will only cost you $3800 to add to your lineup.
14 touchdowns. A league leading 686 rushing yards. 270 receiving yards on 25 receptions. A league leading 169 total touches through 7 starts. 8 touchdowns in his last three games. Todd Gurley ($9800) is downright silly. His pricing is still modest at $9800 for a guy who is a write-in for 30 DraftKings points without blinking every week and he gets a solid match up against the Packers in a guaranteed shootout. The Rams also have the best offensive line in the league and their second-level blocking is elite, giving Gurley those extra yards on almost every attempt. My only hesitation with Gurley this week is the numerous options in the $5000-$7000 range and intriguing backs in the sub-$4000 range. However, there is no chance I can recommend a full fade.
After an injury-riddled start to the season, Marlon Mack ($5400) has been superb in back to back weeks. With 31 carries in the last two weeks, he has 215 yards with a rushing TD and added 3 catches for 37 yards and a reception TD. With Andrew Luck and Colts offense cooking, Mack will become increasingly important as Indianapolis attempts to enter the playoff race. The Raiders have allowed 28.3 DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs and Mack is in the mid-range of prices at $5400. That is a spike of $1000 from last week, but he still could be worth the tag for Week 8.
With Bilal Powell out for the foreseeable future, Isaiah Crowell ($3700) and his 5.7 yards per attempt get another shot at a premiere #1 running back slot for the rest of the season. Over 81 carries, Crowell has 459 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns paired with 9 catches for 69 yards. The one major problem facing Crowell this weekend is his opponent, Khalil Mack and the Bears. The Bears haven’t necessarily had the season that they expected, but have shown signs of brilliance against the Buccaneers, Cardinals and Seahawks but have been torn apart by the Dolphins and Patriots in the past two weeks. MOST IMPORTANTLY, Crowell is only $3700 this week and is as close to a must-play as there is.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk?
I fully understand the appeal of each and every one of the ‘chalk’ options listed above. Particularly, I will be honing in on Phillip Lindsay, Raheem Mostert, James Conner and Isaiah Crowell. Lindsay finally gets his opportunity to shine in a great spot against one of the worst defenses in the league. Mostert’s price is his greatest attribute and he should fare well no matter the opponent with that type of offensive line in front of him. When paying up, James Conner seems to be the best play. A $2400 discount from Todd Gurley is too much to ignore and his recent success gives credence to his legitimacy. And finally, Isaiah Crowell is my favorite chalk play of the week with the highest perceived value when you consider his opportunity and price deficiency.
Week 8 RBs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets
There is nothing particularly sexy about a Tarik Cohen ($5800) play this week. The Jets are a middle of the road defense but have struggled early on against wide receivers despite their young nucleus in the secondary. At this point in his career, it’s hard not to consider Cohen a receiver in this offense. I am impressed with his steady incline in targets including a 13 target game against the Patriots where he managed 8 catches for 69 yards and a TD. In fact, Cohen has scored a rushing or receiving touchdown in each of the previous three weeks. He is certainly a risk at $5800 with Jordan Howard healthy and still see upwards of 12 carries per game but the running back position is thin this week forcing you to get creative.
Saquon Barkley ($8800) and the Giants face a Redskins defense that is currently 8th best against running backs on DraftKings thru 7 weeks, only allowing 20.2 DK points per game. Barkley’s streak of 100-yards from scrimmage in a game ended at six this past week when he fell six yards shy of hitting the mark again. He has at least 1 TD in every game this season with the exception of week 2, the game where he had 14 catches and 80 reception yards against the Cowboys. On 98 rush attempts, he has 481 yards (4.9 ypa) with 5 touchdowns to pair with 49 receptions on 61 targets for 424 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Barkley’s biggest deterrent this week is his price tag, $8800, making him the second highest priced player overall on the slate just behind Todd Gurley.
Kerryon Johnson ($5800) is coming off of a 179 all-purpose yards performance against the Dolphins including 158 yards on 19 rushing attempts (8.32 ypa). The rookie has taken advantage of every single chance he’s received and has rewarded the Lions with 6.4 yards per carry over 69 rushes thus far. The Seahawks are very average against the run this season and have allowed 23 DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs through 7 weeks. With Theo Riddick ruled out for Week 8, Johnson and his $5800 price tag are completely viable this weekend.
Duke Johnson ($3900) did not receive the type of opportunity that Nick Chubb faced in the aftermath of the Carlos Hyde trade to the Jaguars. Chubb was handed the ball 18 times and rushed for 80 yards with a TD as opposed to Johnson who rushed for -4 yards on 1 carry and caught 4 of 4 targets for a minuscule 23 receiving yards. Johnson trailed Chubb 45-35 in snaps in Week 7 against the Buccaneers and will look to reclaim some of the offensive shares in week 8 against the Steelers. A lot of variables are in Johnson’s favor heading into this match up against Pittsburgh including a newly reported injury to David Njoku (who will play) and Rashard Higgins being ruled out. With Higgins out and Njoku battling through a knee injury, Johnson could become vital in a game where Baker Mayfield and the Browns will have to throw a ton to keep up with the Steelers. I like the expected game script and the $3900 price tag for Johnson this week.
Adrian Peterson ($4900) will be a very intriguing option this weekend if Chris Thompson finds himself on the inactive list again this week against the Giants. With Thompson missing the previous two games, AP exploded for 194 rushing yards on 41 carries against the Panthers and Cowboys. The Giants are in the bottom half of the league in DraftKings points allowed to opposing running backs with 27.9 DK points per game. Peterson has rushed for 95 yards or more in 4 of his 6 games this year and will be an incredible value at $4900 if Thompson is out. I can see a scenario where he is still valuable even if Thompson does suit up, so keep AP in your rotation while developing rosters.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?
It is all about the Johnson’s this weekend. Duke Johnson is set for a redemption game against the Steelers where he should become a safety blanket for Baker Mayfield in an offense that will have less of Todd Haley and more of Hue Jackson going forward. Kerryon Johnson is bordering on an uncomfortable price at $5800 mostly due to the fact that LeGarrette Blount is a touchdown hawk who limits Kerryon’s ceiling but the Theo Riddick injury allows for Johnson to add a few catches to the stat line. Finally, you have to be all-in on Adrian Peterson if Thompson misses again, $4900 would be way too cheap.
Week 8 WRs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership
The Cincinnati Bengals have the pleasure of facing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that has allowed the most DraftKings points per game to the QB, WR and TE. If you were wondering, they allow the 9th most to opposing RBs. Although we didn’t cover him in the QB portion because he currently falls between chalk and low-ownership, Andy Dalton is incredibly viable this weekend in a triple stack with Boyd and Green.
Tyler Boyd ($6700) has been much more inconsistent than AJ Green thru 7 weeks but has shown the ability to turn up. After a combined 323 receiving yards on 23 receptions and 2 TDs between weeks 2-4, Boyd has only been able to accumulate 133 yards on 14 catches over the last three games. He was, however, able to wrangle in 2 TDs against Pittsburgh two weeks ago to save the DFS community that had exposure. Even though he was virtually non-existent in the playbook, John Ross has been ruled out for week 8 eliminating another option for Dalton. At $6700, Boyd is $1300 less than AJ Green.
Water always finds its level. AJ Green ($8000) has let Tyler Boyd have his fun exploding on to the scene but has been one of the most consistent performers all season and has accelerated his contribution in recent weeks. In every game this year, Green has seen at least 8 targets and has at least 4 catches but his numbers have been rising in recent weeks. Green has 36 targets over the previous three games with 20 receptions and 314 yards. He hasn’t scored since week 4 but will look to add at least one trip to the end zone in the juicy match up against the Buccaneers secondary. Watch for AJ Green to prove his Alpha-status in week 8 against Tampa Bay…
Davante Adams ($7900) is near the top of the leaderboard when it comes to time on the field. At 94.93%, Adams is basically on the field for every offense snap alongside Aaron Rodgers and has been the one true consistency in this offense all season with the revolving door of WRs around him. With the return of Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison imminent in Week 8, I don’t necessarily see a reduced role for Adams moving forward in 2018. I see an opportunity for Adams to carry his momentum while having a pair of guys return to the lineup who can draw coverage. Adams has a TD (or more) in every single game this year with the exception of Week 4 against the Bills where he still managed 8 of 14 reception for 81 yards. Adams is in the top-ten in targets with 71 and is coming off of a two game stretch where he had 19 catches on 28 targets for 272 yards and 3 TDs. He also leads the league in Red-Zone reception TDs (6). Adams joins Aaron Rodgers in a tough test against the 7-0 Rams, but expect for this one to enter shootout territory early with a heavy dosage of Davante Adams.
Robert Woods ($6800) has 78 or more receiving yards in every game with the exception of week 1 including three 100-yard performances despite only catching the ball 7 or more times twice in a single game. Similar to Adams, Woods will be a main cog in the Rams attempt to stay one step ahead of the Packers in the ‘game of the week’. Woods and Brandin Cooks should benefit from a Packers defense that allows 39 DraftKings points per game to opposing WRs. At $6800, Woods provides a nice pay down option to avoid options like Tyreek Hill, Antonio Brown and AJ Green.
Jarvis Landry ($7200) has three games where he had 10 targets, three games where he had 15 targets and one game with 7 targets which has lead him to the 2nd most targets for a WR this season (82). Despite the astronomical target count, Landry has been somewhat disappointing only eclipsing 100 yards twice, only scoring twice and only bringing in 41 of those targets, exactly half. Landry has clearly been the main target for Baker Mayfield but their connection has been average at best. Based on pure volume and the fact that the Steelers are the 4th worst defense against opposing WRs, Landry is one of the safest plays on the board at $7200.
Emmanuel Sanders ($6500) should see a bump in production as Demaryius Thomas battles a wrist injury and should be limited if he suits up. Without Royce Freeman, Sanders and Phillip Lindsay become the primary focal points of the offense for Week 8 against the Chiefs. Kansas City has struggled against opposing WRs (and all other positions) allowing 39.6 DraftKings points per game, which can be attributed to the absence of Eric Berry. I don’t have the resources to fact check this but I believe Emmanuel Sanders is the only player in the league with a receiving, rushing and passing touchdown this season. Don’t fact check me. Sanders has back-to-back 100+ yard games with a receiving touchdown in each. Sanders is one of the most talented receivers in the league and his $6500 is a nice range for those looking to pair him with another top receiver.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk?
I LOVE Aj Green and Emmanuel Sanders from the ‘chalk’ category this week. AJ Green has returned to his usual production and Tyler Boyd has finally given him a partner to draw coverage in what should be a shootout. He is a bit pricey but that should temper ownership heading into Sunday. Emmanuel Sanders is at a perfect price and should be relatively modest when it comes to ownership (12-15% range). I don’t trust Case Keenum, but he should be able to get Sanders involved while they are trailing big.
Week 8 WRs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets
TY Hilton ($6300) has at least one touchdown or 100+ yards in every game that he has played this season. He has only accumulated 319 thru 5 games but his 5 total touchdowns have kept DFS players content. The Raiders have allowed opposing WRs to rack up 39.4 DraftKings points per game and are coming off a two game losing streak. With returning weapon Jack Doyle and a healthy Marlon Mack, Hilton should have plenty of space to work with. At $6300, he is in that affordable zone alongside Emmanuel Sanders.
Mike Evans ($7800) has 9 or more targets in 4 of his 6 games thus far and has been on the field 83.37% of the time. The Bengals have been the 10th worst defense against WRs this season on DraftKings, allowing 41.4 DK points per game. Evans has destroyed others in the top-ten this season, the Eagles (5th worst) with 10/83/1, the Steelers (4th worst) with 6/137/1 and the Saints (2nd worst) with 7/147/1. Evans will likely draw William Jackson III who has had a rough year and will have a tough test with Big Mike on Sunday.
Tyreek Hill’s ownership this week will suffer based on his pricing, $100 more than Antonio Brown. Over the past two weeks, Tyreek Hill ($8600) has brought in 14 of 22 targets for 210 yards and 4 TDs against a pair of subpar defenses (New England and Cincinnati). He will face a Denver defense that is a little more stout then the previous two opponents but should still have his opportunity to shine. I would be cautious with Hill solely based on the price but he certainly has one of the highest ceilings in the league.
Christian Kirk ($4500) is prime for a breakout game and this could be the week against a 49ers team that struggles against the WR position. Earlier I highlighted Josh Rosen as a long-shot play on this weeks slate and there has to be a recipient of any success Rosen has. Kirk has had a solid campaign for a rookie, catching 28 of 39 targets for 368 yards and a TD. At $4500, Kirk is a solid contrarian play on Sunday.
Martavis Bryant ($3700) will likely be the biggest recipient of the targets and playing time surrendered by Amari Cooper after the trade to the Cowboys. A talented, yet troubled receiver has struggled with his new team this season, with the high point being a week 5 performance of 3/3 for 91 yards. He has big play ability and the sheer fact that he will be on the field more should give him a shot at hitting value at the low cost of $3700.
John Brown ($5900) has been hit-or-miss all season but when he hits, he brings incredible value. After a pair of sub-10 DraftKings points over weeks 5 and 6, Brown returned to form with 7 of 7 targets with 134 yards and 1 TD against an admittedly terrible Saints defense. The Ravens will have a tough challenge against the Panthers in a game where both teams can take a big step towards a deep playoff run. At $5900, Brown is well below the top tier and could be a nice fit alongside some top priced pieces.
Sterling Shepard ($5200) put up 167 yards on 5 catches last week in a loss to the Falcons. He also has 7 or more targets in 6 of 7 games this season and has continued to grow as a great #2 to Odell Beckham Jr. With Beckham likely to see a lot of his arch nemesis, Josh Norman, Sterling is in line for another top-end performance. At $5200, Shepard is in line to easily hit value (roughly 16-18 DK points).
As you can see, Josh Doctson ($3700) has been on the field more than any other receiver this season for the Redskins. Despite that, he is 5th in receiving yards behind Jordan Reed, Paul Richardson, Vernon Davis and Jamison Crowder. He started the season at $4500 and has dropped down to $3700 on DraftKings based on his poor performance. His peak was a 7.7 DK point performance in week 2 against the Colts where he brought in a measly 4 catches for 37 yards. He has seen 5 and 6 targets over the past few weeks. With Chris Thompson and Paul Richardson questionable and Jamison Crowder ruled out for week 8, this could be Doctson’s time to shine.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?
If you have the available cap space, both TY Hilton and Mike Evans are my top choices for their opportunity on Sunday. I will likely have heavy exposure to Andrew Luck and pair him with his favorite target, TY Hilton. Mike Evans is on a hot streak and shouldn’t be slowing down any time soon. Among the lower priced guys, I will be all in on Josh Doctson if Richardson or Thompson are unable to suit up and will have some exposure to Sterling Shepard.
Week 8 TEs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership
David Njoku ($4600) has been a fan favorite among DFS players over the past few weeks as the Baker Mayfield-Njoku connection has flourished. Over the past four weeks, Njoku has been targeted 36 times with 22 receptions, 228 yards and 2 TDs. The Steelers have allowed 19.1 DraftKings points per game to opposing TEs, 2nd worst in the NFL.
CJ Uzomah ($3500) has assumed the role as starting TE in Tyler Eifert‘s absence but has yet to stand out in an offense with Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard, AJ Green and Tyler Boyd. Uzomah was able to grab a TD last week but only on 2 catches and 13 yards. The week prior, he caught 6 of 7 targets for 54 yards. Luckily for Uzomah, he faces the worst team defense against the TE in the league. The Buccaneers have allowed 20.1 DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends.
Vance McDonald ($3700) continues to battle Jesse James for playing time and has stood out in a few contests this season including a Week 3 performance against the Buccaneers (4/112/1) and brought in 7 of 8 targets for 68 yards last week against the Bengals. The Browns are average at best against the TE position and the Steelers should be able to get in the end zone a few times at home against a budding NFC North rival.
Travis Kelce ($6800) is clearly the most talented TE on the slate and his price tag reflects that at $6800 ($1300 more than the second highest, George Kittle). He is also sometimes buried among his talented teammates and will face a decent Broncos defense that only allows 12.5 DraftKings points per game to opposing TEs. Based on his sheer abilities, he will still garner a decent amount of ownership on a thin slate.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk?
Outside of a Baker Mayfield-David Njoku stack, I don’t think I will be leaning towards the chalk this week with a deep set of options (on the next page).
Week 8 TEs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets
OJ Howard ($3900) has been rather efficient this season when given the opportunity, catching 20 of 30 targets for 351 yards with an impressive 17.6 yards per catch for a tight end and adding two TDs. As Jameis Winston continues to progress throughout this season, he will likely be looking for one of his favorite targets from the end of last season. Outside of a trio of poached touchdowns, Cameron Brate has been pretty insignificant in the offense this season. The Bengals are the third worst team against opposing tight ends, allowing 17.7 DraftKings points per game this season (3rd worst).
Jared Cook ($5000) will also likely see a small bump in opportunity with the trade of Amari Cooper to the Cowboys. Cook has also been a candidate for high-risk, high reward all season with two performances of 9/180/0 and 8/110/2 but has had less than 50 yards in his other 4 contests. The Colts are 8th worst against the tight end on DraftKings this season allowing 14.2 DK points per game. At $5000, Cook is a little pricey but the added targets should boost his ceiling.
With names like Pierre Garcon and Matt Breida struggling with injuries and top wide receiver Marquise Goodwin struggling to find his groove, the hottest name in San Francisco is Raheem Mostert. It seems as if the DFS community is forgetting the 2nd years tight end George Kittle ($5500) who has 527 receiving yards, 282 yards more than the next best who is the fullback, Kyle Juszczyk. Kittle is also pricey at $5500, but is a great pivot off of the chalk.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?
George Kittle and Jared Cook will be in my lineups this weekend, especially Kittle. With a battered offense and a single consistent entity for CJ Beathard to rely on (Kittle), I’ll take the chance in what may be an ugly game between the 49ers and Cardinals.
Week 8 DEFs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership
Kansas City Chiefs
I am completely perplexed by the expected chalk this week with some of the worst ranked defenses (Steelers and Chiefs) making the list. The Steelers ($2300) have two 17 point performances and an 11 point performance thanks to high sack counts and a few defensive touchdowns but are at risk to enter a shootout with the Browns and would need another defensive touchdown to hit their number. The only upside is the fact that they are $2300.
The Cardinals ($3200) face a 49ers team that is struggling with injuries but definitely has the ability to put up some points against a Cardinals team that just lost to the Broncos 45-10. Similar to the Steelers, the Cardinals have had a pair of great performances (14 and 21 points against SF and MIN) but have had 8 or less points in the other 5 match ups. At $3200, I think they are just a little too costly to consider especially when you know that Patrick Peterson has no interest in being an Arizona Cardinal.
The Bears ($4100) are facing a Jets team that loves to turn the ball over despite coming off of a pair of duds against the Dolphins and Patriots (AFC East). Prior to that, they had between 13-17 DK points weeks 1-4. At $4100, they are by far the most expensive defense on the slate.
The Chiefs ($2600) have given up a ton of points and are facing a team that just scored 45 against the Cardinals in Week 7. In week 5, they had a stellar performance against the Jaguars with 22 DraftKings points but have been pretty dismal outside of that. With 3 defensive touchdowns this season, they would have to add a 4th (or 5th) to be a good option.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk?
If you have enough cap space, the Bears are a great pick for a team that needs to get on a better path if they want to make a playoff run. Khalil Mack alone should be able to contribute to the 12 DK points or more needed to hit value.
Week 8 DEFs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets
I have an inclination that the battle between the Panthers and Ravens could be a tight contest with a pair of great defenses smashing heads. The Panthers ($2500) have averaged 7.5 DK points per game and have 3 performances of 10 or more points. They play up to their competition including a pair of games against the NFC East (Eagles and Redskins) and should bring their A-game on Sunday. At $2500, they provide good value and a pivot play from the chalk.
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The Redskins ($2700) are coming off of a 15 point performance with 2 fumble recoveries, 4 sacks and a defensive touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys. They face the 1-6 Giants who have talent but have struggled to make gap plays down the field with their aging franchise cornerback, Eli Manning. The most dangerous man on the field in this match up will be Saquon Barkley but the Redskins have been 8th best against the run this season. Similar to the Panthers, they are only $2700 and will be below the high level chalk.
The Colts ($2900) have engaged in multiple shootouts this year but have managed to perform well against poor opponents such as the Bills and have even succeeded against a pair of NFC East contenders (Eagles and Redskins). The Raiders have recently traded Amari Cooper, removing one more weapon for an offense that is already missing Marshawn Lynch. They are the third highest priced defense, but $2900 won’t really screw up any other positional plans you may have.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?
I am a big fan of the Colts this weekend against the reeling Raiders and have confidence in the Colts offense’s ability to stay on the field with returning weapon Jack Doyle and a healthy Marlon Mack and TY Hilton.
Follow me on Twitter at @AlexMcKinnonDFS for the latest on ownership and pivot plays as we approach Sunday’s slate