Stick’s Picks – NFL FantasyDraft Week 8 GPP Targets

Stick’s Picks – NFL FantasyDraft Week 8 GPP Targets (Main Slate)

Another consecutive weekend of cashing in the FantasyDraft GPP’s (many thanks Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt). Before going over my top plays for Week 8,  I wanted to take a little time in the intro of the NFL FantasyDraft Week 8 GPP write-up to review what’s led to this hot run.

What we’ve been doing over the past few weeks for GPP success is rather simple:

• Lock in the studs with high volume (i.e. Todd Gurley, Adam Thielen, Kareem Hunt, etc.) and build around them.
• Mini-stacking (multiple players in one particular game) the games with high-totals and positive game-scripts to those players you roster.
• Identify the teams that have highest implied-totals and narrow it down to the ones you feel strongly about. What I mean by “feel strongly” is more so that you have a read on offenses you like in their given match-ups and that you picture a game-script that supports fantasy point production to the players you are targeting in those match-ups.

For example, the Kansas City Chiefs had an implied total of 29.5 points in Week 7. I absolutely loved the idea of rostering Chiefs in DFS last week, but mainly, Kareem Hunt. My “game-script” hypothesis for Kareem Hunt last week was as follows:

Hunt has been getting a heavy workload in both the passing and rushing attack for the Chiefs… he is going to be a key focus if the Chiefs somehow needed to play catch-up and move the ball via the pass, and an even bigger focus if they get a big lead and need to pound the ball to run clock.

Well, Hunt ended up with 37.1 FantasyDraft points and was under 15% owned. Hunt was a staple in my Week 7 lineups and one of the main reasons 80% of my GPP entries made it passed the pay-lines.

By no means is anything listed above considered to be a “ground-breaking formula to GPP success”, but honestly, the more I’ve simplified my roster construction process, the better I’ve done in my GPP’s.

Have a purpose when you create your lineups! If that is working, don’t change the way you’re doing things. Similar to golf, the more you simplify the game, the better you score (or least from my personal experience).

Is this a formula for winning a million-dollar fantasy tournament? Probably not, but my goal is to cash on a weekly basis, and so far, we’re doing it. If your goals are to finish first in a GPP every week, you’re probably better off playing the lottery.

Enough of the boring stuff, let’s get into the NFL FantasyDraft Week 8 GPP Targets.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @sticks022 and @FantasyCPR for more fantasy football information. Thank you for reading and best of luck this week!

NFL FantasyDraft GPP Quarterbacks:

First off, I’ll probably never write about Patrick Mahomes again as you should never think twice about rostering him if you have the salary to do so – the dude provides unreal production. From the looks of things, I will have no chance at having enough salary to pay for him ($13,900), so we’ll leave it at that.

Aaron Rodgers ($12,100)

This game comes in with by far, the highest total on the slate at 56.5 points. I want a lot of exposure to this game. Vegas has the Los Angeles Rams as a ~9 point favorite… when I saw that, I immediately wanted shares of Aaron Rodgers in DFS.

For one, I know the Rams are easily the best team in the NFL right now, but Aaron Rodgers coming in as a two-score underdog? I don’t quite agree with Vegas on that one, but I hope they’re right.

The Rams have an implied total of 33 points in this game and if that holds true, Aaron Rodgers is going to have to throw A LOT. Rodgers is in a groove right now with back to back 30+ point fantasy performances and he’s in an excellent spot to put together another 30+ fantasy point game in his home-state of California on Sunday.

Ben Roethlisberger ($11,400)

Big Ben at home with an implied total 28.5 points? Mark me down as interested. I’m not in love with this matchup as I do respect the Browns’ passing defense, but Big Ben is a fantasy stud when he plays in Pittsburgh and I love that high team-total. I’ll have a couple shares of Roethlisberger.

Jared Goff ($11,300)

I’ve been playing a lot of Goff this season and he really hasn’t paid off lately. I’m not sure if DFS players are going to hold a grudge against Goff due to his sub-par performances over the past three weeks, but I’m confident his ownership won’t be through the roof.

The Green Bay Packers have a very solid run defense, so there’s hope they can somewhat contain Gurley. Vegas is aware of the Packers’ run defense and they still are expecting 30+ points from the Rams. I think we’re in for a Goff blowup game.

85% of my GPP lineups are going to have a quarterback from this Packers/Rams game. Although I slightly prefer Rodgers in this one, Goff is my #2 play on the board. His price tag is extremely reasonable. Lock him in with Gurley and either Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods (maybe even both).

Long story short, you need exposure to this game in your GPP contests.

Honorable Mention:

Andrew Luck ($11,600)

Jameis Winston ($11,300)

Russell Wilson ($11,000)

Case Keenum ($10,100)

NFL FantasyDraft GPP Running Backs:

We don’t need to cover anything Todd Gurley ($18,500) related, he is a staple in 95% of my lineups until further notice.

Kareem Hunt ($15,300)

Hunt is on a tear lately and I’ll be going right back to the well again in Week 8. Over the past four weeks, Hunt has averaged exactly 20 touches per game and as I mentioned last week, I love his recent involvement in the Chiefs’ passing attack.

TeamRankings.com currently has the Chiefs listed as a 10-point favorite with a 31.8 implied total. The Broncos’ defense seems to be improving, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they were able to keep this game close, but even if it’s a blowout in the Chiefs’ favor, we should see Hunt with 20+ touches again this week.

He’s on fire, and he’s getting a lot of volume. Lock in Kareem Hunt.

James Conner ($14,100)

Similar to Kareem Hunt, James Conner is on a heater of his own. He is coming off of back to back 30+ fantasy point performances and has a great matchup against a weak Cleveland run defense this Sunday.

Conner has been incredibly efficient running the ball in that two-game stretch, and is always a safe bet to see 5+ targets in the passing game. I love rostering Conner this week.

David Johnson ($12,300)

This may be the last week we see David Johnson priced under $13k on FantasyDraft. Byron Leftwich has now taken over as the Cardinals’ offensive coordinator so that should hopefully increase Johnson’s value. I’m not quite sure what to expect from Leftwich’s play calling, but there’s no way he uses Johnson like Mike McCoy did.

It’s risky, but I don’t mind the matchup against the 49ers. If Leftwich has common sense, he will get David Johnson touches early and often in this game (both via run and pass). At his relatively low-price, I’m fine taking a gamble on DJ.

I find it hard to believe he comes into GPP’s with anything higher than 10% ownership. He has the upside to have a huge game and pay dividends for those who roster him in Week 8.

Phillip Lindsay ($10,600)

With the Broncos officially ruling out Royce Freeman for Sunday’s matchup against the Chiefs, Lindsay is in line for a massive workload. He has shown the ability to produce as a three-down back, and the Chiefs’ defense is nothing to be scared of.

In terms of value, Phillip Lindsay is my favorite skill position player on the slate. I’m going to have a lot of Kareem Hunt/Phillip Lindsay mini-stacks.

Honorable Mention:

Saquon Barkley ($16,000)

Alvin Kamara ($14,400)

Joe Mixon ($13,400)

Kerryon Johnson ($9,500)

Jalen Richard ($8,400)

NFL FantasyDraft GPP Wide Receivers:

The wide receiver spot is almost impossible to narrow down. There are so many great plays at the position this week. Here is a list of the obvious top plays that you need to consider in all formats of DFS this weekend:

• Adam Thielen ($17,000) – he’s incredibly expensive, but hard to fade.
• Antonio Brown ($16,100) – pair him with Big Ben.
• Tyreek Hill ($16,000) – insane upside as we all know but was held in-check against this Denver defense in Week 4.
• Davante Adams ($15,000) – my favorite WR play on the slate. I will have a lot of Adams/Rodgers mini-stacks.
• A.J. Green ($15,000) – no one on Tampa Bay can matchup with Green. He should have a big day.
• Mike Evans ($14,700) – He hasn’t scored since Week 3…that changes this week

Outside of the studs listed above, here are the guys I’ll be targeting at wide receiver:

Robert Woods ($12,700) & Brandin Cooks ($12,400)

Get exposure to this Packers/Rams game. I’m not sure which Rams’ wide receiver I’ll roster more, but at the moment, it’s looking like I’m leaning towards Robert Woods. They both should have plenty of opportunities to produce in this high scoring affair.

Emmanuel Sanders ($12,400)

Sanders is one of the most consistent fantasy wide receivers in PPR formats. He is coming off of two-monster performances and is in an excellent matchup against a brutal Chiefs’ pass defense. I’m locking Sanders in for 10+ targets which should lead to plenty of fantasy upside.

He will be the third piece in my Hunt/Lindsay stacks.

Doug Baldwin ($10,200)

Baldwin is coming off a his bye week so one would think he is well rested and primed for his breakout performance for the 2018 season. I would assume Baldwin lines up in the slot for most of this game against the Lions, which is great news for DFS players.

Slot-corner, Teez Tabor is currently ranked as the 111th cornerback in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. Baldwin is an all-pro wide receiver who should have no issue eating up Tabor on a consistent basis on Sunday.

At his price, it’s hard not to be excited about rostering Doug Baldwin.

 Honorable Mention:

Michael Thomas ($14,700)

Odell Beckham Jr. ($13,800)

Jarvis Landry ($13,700)

Golden Tate ($11,300)

Marvin Jones ($9,000)

Christian Kirk ($8,800)

NFL FantasyDraft GPP Tight Ends:

Very rarely do I exclusively lock-in one player at the tight end position for multi-entry GPP’s. This week, it appears that I am going to do so.

C.J. Uzomah ($7,000)

At $7,000 and matching up against the worst defense (in regards to defending the tight end), it appears that Uzomah is a no-brainer this week. I’m paying up at the running back and wide receiver position in every lineup I create, so I’m locking in Uzomah as my main tight end for 90% of my entries.

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If he disappoints, point the blame at me. He is just too cheap to avoid. If you choose to go elsewhere for the tight end position, here are the guys I would consider:

• Travis Kelce ($12,700)
• George Kittle ($10,300)
• Trey Burton ($9,000)
• Jimmy Graham ($8,700)
• David Njoku ($8,600)
• O.J. Howard  ($7,700)

NFL FantasyDraft GPP DST & Sample Lineup:

Similar to last week, I’ll be paying down for DST simply due to salary constraints. The teams that peak my interest the most (in terms of value) would have to be the Carolina Panthers ($4,900) and the Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,500).

I don’t really have many thoughts on anyone else as there’s no way I’ll be able to roster anyone over $5k. Here is an example of a lineup I’ll be rolling out for my Week 8 GPP’s:

QB: Jared Goff

RB: Kareem Hunt

RB: Todd Gurley

WR: Robert Woods

WR: Doug Baldwin

TE: C.J. Uzomah

FLEX: Kerryon Johnson

FLEX: Phillip Lindsay

DST: Carolina Panthers

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