College Football Playoff: Projected Top 4 after Week 9 – Who’s in and who’s out?

The first College Football Playoff rankings are coming out Tuesday night but you can get a sneak peek at how the committee is likely to rank the teams.

Nine weeks are in the bag and now the first College Football Playoff rankings are due out Tuesday night at 6 p.m. There likely won’t be much drama for the first release as it’ll be a lock that undefeated Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame are all expected to be in the top four in some order.

The only real drama surrounds the fourth team from a group that includes LSU, Michigan, Oklahoma and Georgia. These are the four best one-loss teams after nine weeks and an argument can be made for any of the four to make their way in, but it really comes down to LSU and Michigan for the fourth spot.

Let’s take a look at how the Playoff committee is likely to rank the top four for their initial rankings on Tuesday night and which two teams are knocking on the door.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

The top team in college football by a wide margin thus far had their bye week this week, so no talking about another blowout win this week. Despite their bye, there is still plenty to talk about when it comes to the Tide. Next week will be the toughest road test for Alabama all season when they travel to face LSU. After a big win over Georgia, Death Valley will be rocking at another level.

One thing to monitor heading up to next Saturday is the health of sophomore sensation Tua Tagovailoa. He has worn a knee brace in recent games, and he’s taken some punishment going through the SEC gauntlet. It will be interesting to see how much a week off will help him out. He’s been fantastic even with the shots he’s taken, so a healthy Tagovailoa could be on another level.

The other thing with Tagovailoa is that a lot could be on his shoulders next weekend. The running game has been a committee all season long, and no one has gained a lot of traction. The lack of a full game could backfire against a good LSU defense.

2. Clemson Tigers

The Tigers roll through the ACC continues. They traveled to Tallahassee this Saturday and put the hurt on the Florida State Seminoles.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence met expectations on Sunday and attacked the Seminoles through the air all day. He completed just 20 of 37 passes but threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns. Lawrence continues to prove that Clemson made the right call at the beginning of the season and is a big reason why the Tigers can contend for a title this season. Last year, they didn’t have a passing game to threaten Alabama, and it cost them. That isn’t the case now.

Wide receiver Amari Rodgers ran free all day in the secondary, catching six passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns. Sophomore Tee Higgins added 62 yards on the day and also scored a pair of touchdowns.

The defense made life difficult for the Seminoles from the start. The defense accumulated 14 tackles for loss and finished with five sacks. They held the top two rushers for Florida State to just 24 yards on 18 carries.

The Tigers show no signs of stopping and will host the downtrodden Louisville Cardinals next week.

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame often finds that trap game in their season that ultimately dooms them, but it won’t be the Navy Midshipmen. The Irish started fast and didn’t look back, winning 44-22.

Ian Book was very good once again, completing 27 of 33 for 330 yards and two touchdowns. He also completed a pass to nine different receivers. Book has been an extremely efficient quarterback from the moment he started a game for the Irish, and that Heisman stock should still be climbing. He’s been as steady a performer as anyone in the country.

The other important cog in the offense, running back Dexter Williams, looked great once again. He rushed for 142 yards and three touchdowns. With Book at quarterback, both offensive dimensions look great.

The defense did give up a lot on the ground to an always efficient ground attack, but the defense didn’t break when it needed a stop. Playing loose with a big lead certainly helped, so the two long Navy touchdown drives in the second half weren’t a huge deal.

If Notre Dame can keep up the fast starts and efficiency on offense, it will be tough to upset them. They get a Northwestern team next week that just took an outright lead in the Big Ten West.

4. LSU Tigers

An off week for the Tigers as well as they prepare for Alabama. Their win over Georgia was a huge resume booster and proves they are among the nation’s very good teams. However, their shaky offense keeps them from being an elite team. This week’s prep for Alabama will need to be perfect, cause that is what kind of game it will take to beat the Crimson Tide.

The defense will be missing linebacker Devin White for the first half, which will really hurt. But, they still have enough on the defensive line to create some pressure for Tagovailoa. The secondary, led by Greedy Williams and Grant Delpit, could prove to be quite a challenge and may force Tagovailoa’s first interception of the season.

With LSU likely to hold Alabama to its lowest point total of the season, the offense will need to keep pace in order to keep the dam from bursting in this game. Joe Burrow will need to come out fearless and can’t hesitate with his reads. Running back Nick Brossette will need to be schemed into open space to get him going. Big plays will help against Alabama’s young secondary as well.

It will be tough, but LSU needs to show up in what will have a playoff game feel.

Just Missed: Michigan, Georgia

Texas losing to Oklahoma State drops them out of consideration. Meanwhile, Michigan and Georgia control their destiny in the Big Ten and SEC, respectively. Look for the Playoff committee to also give serious consideration to Oklahoma who could find themselves in the first line out.