Refined shot selection has made Khris Middleton a star

When the Milwaukee Bucks hired Mike Budenholzer this summer, pundits and fans justifiably salivated over Giannis Antetokounmpo’s fit with the new head coach patrolling the sidelines. Antetokounmpo had developed into a top-10 player, despite being constrained by the archaic philosophies of Jason Kidd and Joe Prunty. Finally armed with floor spacing and a modern scheme, the Greek Freak looked primed to ascend even further up the league’s hierarchy.

But an overlooked effect of Budenholzer’s addition is how he’d alter the style of Milwaukee’s second-best player, Khris Middleton, who’s posting 21.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists on .513/.571/.893 shooting splits through six games. Long an underrated player cast in the shadow of Antentokounmpo’s stardom, Middleton produced at a near-All-Star rate last season, averaging 20.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.5 steals on 57.7 percent true shooting.

By no means was Middleton an inefficient scorer — 57.7 percent true shooting is a healthy mark — but for a player who’d nailed 39.1 percent of his 3-pointers prior to the 2018-19 season, he was far too reliant on mid-range jumpers.

Over the last five years, no fewer than 46 percent of his attempts stemmed from that region, crescendoing in 2016-17 at 53 percent (96th percentile among wings). Unlike some guys, though, Middleton is a potent mid-range scorer, having ranked in at least the 72nd percentile in efficiency throughout his six-year career and peaking last season in the 96th percentile (50 percent shooting). This year, mid-range looks are comprising a career-low 27 percent (43rd percentile) of his shot profile.

With Budenholzer now the one diagramming plays, the entire team has stretched its range beyond the arc. After ranking no higher than 22nd in 3-point rate in four seasons under the Kidd-Prunty regime, the Bucks are now hoisting 40.6 percent of their shots from deep — good for third league-wide — and rank 28th in mid-range frequency (14th last year).

Middleton has been a figurehead of this revolution. Fifty-two percent of his total attempts are 3-pointers and he’s jacking up 8.3 triples per 36 minutes, both radical increases from his previous career-highs of 35 percent and 4.9. His 57.1 percent success rate is wholly unsustainable but Middleton is an elite shooter who is learning to trade in long 2s for pull-up 3s. With a new scheme and genuine floor spacing, he should be able to hover around his career mark of 39.6 percent, even with nearly twice the usage.

Through four contests, he’s connected on 12 of his 20 (60 percent) pull-up treys, which paces all players with at least 15 attempts this year. Utilizing a high release point and fluid mechanics, the 6-foot-8 Middleton is able to fire jumpers with scant defensive interference.

Budenholzer’s playbook has long been kind to plus shooters — Kyle Korver and Taurean Prince come to mind — and for Middleton, that’s been no different. A patented Budenholzer action is a set called “One,” which comes in semi-transition or early in the half-court offense and initiates a possession or can be easily flowed into another play. It’s allowed Middleton to get downhill or trigger a quick 3 via a screen(s) at the top of the key/arc:

Deploying him as a pick man to induce switches in ball-screen actions is another tactic that places Middleton in optimal contexts, given his penchant for using his length against smaller defenders. Here, he sets a screen for Eric Bledsoe and gets Kemba Walker matched up on him before netting the floater:

He’s not just doing it with an outlier shooting run, though. Middleton is getting to the foul line a career-high 5.5 times per 36 minutes and sports a career-best .350 free-throw rate. That signals evolution as a scorer. The league’s most prolific bucket-getters are those who put considerable pressure on the defense and regularly force it to choose between easy scores and trips to the charity stripe.

All it took for Middleton to retool his shot chart was tutelage from a coach who promotes modern tendencies. He’s cut down on long 2s, finally has the 3-point volume to match his credentials and is carving out a home at the free-throw line. Through six games, the Bucks’ ceiling looks to be even higher than most thought possible. They have the spacing, the coaching, a full-blown superstar and a complementary celestial being. All summer, Antetokounmpo was the one pegged for a sizable leap. But it might be Middleton who ends up as the biggest beneficiary of a new era in Milwaukee.