NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday October 29
Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
After Saturday Night’s NBA DFS shellacking built around a dud of a Hawks-Bulls game stack, I opted to take the 3 game Sunday NBA slate and just enjoy a day of football and family. Sometimes taking a day off from DFS can be a great way to clear your head before jumping back in!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Two Big Injuries
Monday’s nine game NBA slate is going to be headlined by the injury designations to two of its biggest stars with Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo which means we have a ton of usage and potential value to sift through.
With the Pelicans already ruling Elfrid Payton OUT and The Brow confirmed as OUT after missing Saturday’s game, all signs are pointing towards Jrue Holiday ($13K) as a near must play on this slate. In 33 minutes of court time this year without AD/Elf, Holiday has a 30.6% usage rate while putting up 1.34 FP/M and we saw last season that Holiday gets a near 7% usage boost when AD is off the court. After a solid 34 fantasy point outing over the weekend against the Jazz, Holiday gets a much easier match-up against the Nuggets tonight and his price point leaves ample room for profit.
Keep an eye on the starting line-up as any one of Ian Clark ($6.5K), Frank Jackson ($6.4K) or Tim Frazier ($6K) could draw the start for Elf. It is worth noting that Clark checked in for Elf both times he came out on Saturday and that Tim Frazier only saw blow-out run so I would look to Clark and Jackson first as punt plays.
Nikola Mirotic ($13.5K) is the other clear top play from the Pelicans with AD off the court as he leads the team in usage and FP/M this season with AD off the floor and put up another solid outing (36 FPTS) against a tough Jazz front court. Mirotic and Holiday led the team in FGA against Utah and it would seem like the logical 1-2 punch again against the Nuggets.
Julius Randle ($12K) is the wild card – as he got the start for AD but played only 19 minutes and the question becomes – is that due to his plantar fasciitis, the 4 fouls against Gobert or the blowout game script? There is risk here but also massive upside as Randle had a 31% usage rate and nearly 1.1 FP/M in that game – if Randle gets any sort of legit run here – he could put up a massive game but there is injury risk here that makes him a GPP target only.
With Giannis looking out for tonight due to a head injury, we have a large sample size of data to work with when trying to sort through how this impacts the Bucks. Not surprisingly, Khris Middleton ($12.9K) sees the biggest boost, with a 7.2% usage bump in over 1100 minutes with Giannis out, sporting a team-high 33% usage rate and 1.2 FP/M while Eric Bledsoe ($12K) has a 28% usage rate with 1.2 FP/M of his own.
With the news that Kawhi Leonard is also out, this is not only a huge boost for Middleton offensively but it boost Kyle Lowry ($14.4K) into one of the top plays on the slate as he should get all the usage and put up 55 FPTS against Washington in the only other game Kawhi missed this season. Lowry is priced for profit here and makes for a great addition to the core build here.
NBA DFS – Stack it Up
We already mentioned the Pelicans side of this New Orleans-Denver game but with the Nuggets set to get one of the largest pace boost against a Pelicans team that plays at the 4th fastest pace, with a bottom 10 defense and now no AD – I feel like running it back with some Nuggets is a great option tonight.
We finally saw the Jamal Murray ($12.4K) bounce back game with 34 minutes against the Lakers over the weekend where he dropped over 40 fantasy points behind a 30% usage rate. Nikola Jokic ($18.5K) continued to lead the team in usage however and has gone for 40+ fantasy points in every single game this season. We just saw Rudy Gobert destroy this Pelicans interior without AD to the tune of 25 points, 14 rebounds and 4 blocks so the upside for Jokic here is simply massive and although the price is going to require that “ceiling” game here, I think he is the one high dollar play I would prioritize on this slate.
Outside of New Orleans-Denver, the game I have the most interest in stacking is the Knicks and the Nets, even though the 217 game total is actually one of the lowest available to us tonight. The Knicks went with a defense first line-up against the Warriors last time out and my hope is that uncertainty keeps people away from New York again tonight as the traditional line-up will likely return in a game script we have already seen play out once this season.
Enes Kanter ($13.6K) absolutely obliterated this Brooklyn team the first meeting this season to the tune of 29 points, 10 rebounds and 48 fantasy points and with the Nets giving up the most fantasy points to opposing centers this season, I hope Kanter is re-installed into the starting line-up here tonight. It is worth noting, Kanter was quoted at Sunday’s practice as saying Coach Fizdale wanted him to lead the second unit so this could be more than a one game benching.
Jarrett Allen ($10.4K) had one of his best games in this match-up when he logged a 15 point, 11 rebound, 4 block, 37 fantasy point performance of his own against Kanter.
If I am game stacking this spot, you can could easily build around a variety of mid-tier plays like Caris LeVert or D’Angelo Russell who put up 42 and 33 FPTS the first meeting and there is a certain SG on the Knicks side, ahem…Tim Hardaway Jr…. who I have heard is recommended often in this article.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
The sample line-up as noted below is for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to be a Plug and Play line-up.
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G: Jrue Holiday($13K)
G: Jamal Murray ($12.4K)
G: Tim Hardaway Jr. ($12.4K)
F/C: Nikola Jokic ($18.2K)
F/C: Nikola Mirotic ($13.5K)
F/C: Jarrett Allen ($10.4K)
UTIL: Enes Kanter ($13.6K)
UTIL: Ian Clark ($6.5K)
Slate Overview: If you step back and look at this slate and realize the top team totals are built around games that could be over by half time (Warriors/Bulls and Sixers/Hawks), you start to pare down your player pool pretty quickly. Now you have a juicy near 240 total with the Lakers and Wolves that will garner some attention but with Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram back – we are back to a deep Lakers squad with too many mouths to feed and inflated price points. On the Wolves side – I mean this team is a total mess right now that just got their doors blown off by the Bucks – I think this whole game is a stay away for me despite the big total.
With so much early injury news this slate could become one of the chalkier ones of the year but I would argue almost all of it (Lowry/Middleton/Bledsoe and the AD-less Pelicans) is the right chalk to eat so maybe you stick with the core and find a few spots to differentiate tonight.
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