Lots can change (starting Saturday?) over the next month, but here are the top takeaways from Week One of the College Football Playoff rankings.
For the fifth time, the first week of the College Football Playoff rankings went rogue in terms of matching the two “popular” polls.
The top three teams in the Associated Press and Coaches’ polls this week are the three remaining undefeated Power Five teams – Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame with LSU No. 4. However, the 13-member playoff committee’s initial rankings had Alabama, Clemson and then one-loss LSU ahead of Notre Dame at No. 4.
“When you look at LSU’s resume, they have six wins over teams with records of .500 or better,” said CFP chair Rob Mullens, athletic director at Oregon, on ESPN’s ratings show Tuesday night. “They’ve got a great resume and their body of work is pretty strong.”
Here are five takeaways from the first College Football Playoff rankings:
Games are played, things change
LSU’s resume could be even stronger by midnight Saturday. The Tigers host Alabama Saturday night and have the incentive of beating the top-ranked defending national champions plus a lack of respect – the Tide is a two-touchdown favorite. Plus, with the high stakes on the table and 80,000 “fueled” fans in the stands, Death Valley’s vaunted atmosphere could move the needle to 11. Also Saturday, Notre Dame plays at Northwestern and Georgia visits Kentucky. The Bulldogs are No. 6 and the Wildcats are No. 9 in the CFP. The loser is eliminated from top four contention.
Notre Dame’s challenge
The Irish were No. 3 in last season’s initial rankings before imploding. Being ranked No. 4 is good news/bad news. The good news is they weren’t No. 3; no team ranked third in the first week’s rankings have made the final four. The bad news is Notre Dame’s margin for error is razor-thin. Starting with Northwestern, the Irish play Florida State in South Bend, Syracuse in Yankee Stadium and at USC. Many think Saturday night in Evanston could be the biggest challenge. History suggests otherwise; Notre Dame’s last loss at Northwestern came in 1927.
First week rarely matters
Alabama and Clemson have faced off in the playoffs each of the last three seasons. Each year, those teams were ranked in the top four in the first week of the CFP rankings and survived until the final rankings. Half of the 16 teams ranked in the top four in Week One the first four seasons failed to make the semifinals. The Tide and the Tigers will get the chance to prove their staying power for the fifth consecutive season. November, though, will be challenging for both teams.
One-loss hopefuls
LSU has taken advantage of beating good teams and the Tigers’ lone loss came at Florida by eight points. Of the 16 teams to make the previous final fours, 12 had one loss and none of the four champions of the CFP Era have been undefeated. Numbers 5 through 10 all have one loss – Michigan, Georgia, Oklahoma, Washington State, Kentucky and Ohio State. Four of those six schools play each other in “elimination” games. The Sooners, who have made two of the last three final fours, appear to be in better shape than the Cougars. The Pac-12 has just one other team (No. 15 Utah) in the rankings; Washington State’s schedule strength could be a disqualifier.
(Bullet-proof) glass ceiling?
UCF went 13-0 last season and presented itself with a national championship. Last year, the Knights were No. 18 in week one of the rankings. This year, with a 20-game winning streak and a 7-0 record, UCF checked in at No. 12. The Knights are one spot behind Florida, which has two losses. Through Week Nine, UCF is the only team in the country that hasn’t played a team with a winning record, which is the antithesis of LSU’s resume. The Knights, who had a game against North Carolina canceled because of a hurricane, will eventually play some winning teams. UCF faces Temple, Cincinnati, South Florida and possible Houston (in the conference championship game). Those teams currently are a combined 26-6. The Knights could move up, but probably not into the top four.