Philadelphia face NYCFC and FC Dallas play Portland in the first set of MLS playoff game this week. Here’s what to expect.
The MLS postseason is upon us, starting with knockout round games on Wednesday and Thursday this week. We’ll start our previews by looking at Wednesday’s matchups:
Philadelphia Union vs. NYCFC
X-Factor: The Yankee Stadium grass. These two played on Sunday in the Bronx and the size of the field restricted the Union’s ability to possess the ball. Philly will have to be more direct.
From NYCFC’s perspective
— Before they trainwrecked in the stretch run, NYCFC made their living smothering Yankee Stadium’s tight midfield. It was one of Patrick Vieira’s lasting tactical impacts, and while Dome Torrent has retained some of those elements, NYC seem to have forgotten many of the lessons taught by Vieira.
The (surprising) return of Yangel Herrera to some level of health could push New York back in the right direction. Herrera is a midfield bulldog with unlimited energy and duel-winning potential, perfect for pressing on-ball distributors into oblivion. The Light Blues have had no real replacement since Herrera’s supposedly season-ending injury.
Herrera’s fitness remains a concern — the 90 minutes he played in New York’s 3-1 win on Sunday are promising, but it was the first full match he had played in months, and now he has to turn around and play a midweek game. Not ideal.
If Herrera can stick around, it could allow NYC the freedom to be more proactive defensively. With a player they trust to cut out plays and singlehandedly track down the ball, their margin for error while pressing decreases. Torrent has yet to implement cohesive tactics at the front of the formation, so Herrera will have to give the third midfielder in the 4-3-3 (likely Maxi Moralez) a chance to drift and press when necessary. The Venezuelan is a security blanket New York has conspicuously lacked.
— At this point, City have to throw out their good players and hope they do something. The time has passed for Torrent to apply whatever utopian attacking tactics he seems to have in mind.
New York have gradually transitioned from Vieira’s Build From The Back to a system that prioritizes possession higher up the field. Torrent’s ideology is still rooted in controlling the flow of the game, but he wants to toss players forward and take the game to you. He has the skill players to do it.
Defense sometimes has to be sacrificed — that’s partially where Herrera can help. The Venezuelan won’t be the end-all cure, though. NYC’s attack can’t keep going cold in the final third.
A proposal: Take a step back with the ball. Tone down the numbers going forward and try to draw Philly out of their defensive shape. It could take some of the shelter away from the Union’s inexperienced center-backs, and any advantage you can give to David Villa could win you the game.
From Philadelphia’s perspective
— The Union are at their best when they’re on the ball just inside the opposition half. The area at the top of the opponent’s penalty box is the most important on the field. Philadelphia understand this, and their way of getting the ball there is by possessing the ball in the areas just outside of it. Their possession-based system is fun to watch because it is based specifically on getting their attacking players on the ball in productive areas.
Haris Medunjanin and Alejandro Bedoya are the engines. Medunjanin is calm and patient on the ball, comfortable sitting deep and hitting marvelous diagonal switches, while Bedoya is the mover and shaker — he rotates as clinically as any MLS central midfielder. These two and nominal number 10 Borek Dockal get on the ball enough that the full-backs can be used more conservatively.
— Dockal is the recipient of most of their passes into the final third. He finished as MLS’s Assist King — we can give him the Valderrama Award — and his vision and well-weighted through-balls have proven more effective than was once expected. He knows where to find runners, and he’s been able to receive the ball in good areas with little trouble. His touch percentage (12.7 percent, per American Soccer Analysis) is one of the better marks in the league, particularly for a player that so often gets the ball close to the goal.
— Philly’s center-backs, Auston Trusty and Mark McKenzie, have been mostly good this year, and have only improved as the season has progressed. They will deal with the expert movement of David Villa in small confines, which can be good and bad. There remains a small percentage that they crumble as young defenders. I wouldn’t bet on it.
— NYCFC will have to be willing to sit deeper defensively sometimes. Philly will slice you apart if you give them the chance, especially if Fafa Picault happens to be on his day. The Union have helped themselves with practicality without the ball — they don’t hang around higher up the field hoping for an easy counter, nor do they gamble on high-leverage turnovers. New York could learn a lesson from that.
FC Dallas vs. Portland Timbers
X-Factor: Who comes out their shell, ever? Neither of these teams bunker, but they each are inherently conservative and won’t wow you with proactive possession.
From Portland’s perspective
— Portland are one-dimensional. They’ve struggled immensely this season when they haven’t played a deep-sitting, Diego Chara-anchored 4-3-2-1 formation. Often, though, that one dimension has been tough to beat. Chara is arguably the best defensive midfielder in MLS, and Diego Valeri is a pretty effective outlet on the counter.
— Giovanni Savarese has been trying all season to bring about a new dimension. He’s tested various other formations (most notably a 4-4-2 diamond, which did not go well) and tried a new emphasis on possession. It has yet to work to any discernible degree, which could indicate that this current Timbers team lacks the personnel to do much other than what they’ve done to this point.
One wrinkle he tried was moving Chara out of his pure number 6 role and into an N’Golo Kante-with-Chelsea-type roamer. The intentions made sense, in theory; Savarese wanted more on-ball nuance higher up the field, and he wanted a ball-winning dynamo in new places. It was an attempt to spark a team that so often went stale with the ball.
Naturally, they got weaker defensively, and Chara has been back at the base of the midfield. The lesson: Play your best players in their best positions. Chara is more important to his team than any other player in the league is to theirs.
— The key to attacking FC Dallas is creating off the dribble, because FCD will hold a tight shape and make little organizational mistakes. Dallas’s entire system is based around restricting quick passing and effective possession. They will dare the Timbers to either beat defenders one-on-one or one-on-two or devote numbers forward and risk conceding counters in the direction.
For Portland to solve this puzzle, they have to look to Sebastian Blanco, their premier dribbler. Blanco has been productive in his second MLS season, and his best asset is darting off the wing and dribbling hard into channels.
Look also for Lucas Melano, who returned to Portland this summer. He isn’t a great passer, but he beat Dallas back in the 2015 postseason. He could play a role off the bench.
From FC Dallas’s perspective
— What is there to say about FC Dallas at this point? They are built to play slow. They have some nice attacking pieces, but Pablo Aranguiz doesn’t even start, and Maxi Urruti rips more ill-conceived shots than anyone in the league. Their defense is solid and tough in the air.
They’re not threatening — they enter the playoffs on a three-game losing streak. In a game against the disastrous Rapids on Decision Day that would have won them the Western Conference, they somehow managed to lose 2-1. Given Dallas’s form, Portland should win this game.
— These teams played in late September at Providence Park. A profoundly uneventful game finished 0-0. I’m glad this is not a two-leg series, because neither team would do anything at all in the first leg.
Expect a similarly cagey, slow-to-develop game in the knockout round. It could come down to an off counter-attack or set piece.