Sergio Agueroās static style of play is holding Manchester City back in big games.
Manchester City will probably win another Premier League title this season, and they will probably have Sergio Agueroās goals to thank for winning most games.
Yet thereās still a sense the Citizens are better without the clubās all-time leading goalscorer in the lineup. Itās a feeling growing stronger after watching City return to the top of the table thanks to a 1-0 win over Tottenham on Monday.
Aguero started up top but was largely ineffective. He failed to score and was substituted for Kevin De Bruyne with 19 minutes remaining.
The barren showing meant Aguero is now in the midst of a lengthy goal drought against the Lilywhites:
In fact, goals against other members of the divisionās top six have also been hard to come by. Counting Mondayās blank, Aguero has now failed to score in his last six appearances against the top six.
He started five of those games, two wins over Arsenal and a victory over Chelsea. Aguero also led the line in the 0-0 draw against Liverpool earlier this season.
In each case the Argentina international found himself substituted after failing to score.
City boss Pep Guardiola is willing to sacrifice his main source of goals because Agueroās static style of play blunts his teamās attack in big games.
For all his twisting and turning, deceptive pace and subtlety, Aguero is a classic No. 9. Heās at his best when occupying the spaces between a pair of center-backs and acting as the target for his teammatesā approach play.
Acting as a fixed focal point leads to many goals for Aguero, but it limits the flexibility of Cityās other attacking talents. Guardiolaās forward line is most potent when itās fluid.
Movement has to be collective, with individual runs made in symmetry to complement other attackers. This kind of movement is obvious when Gabriel Jesus starts through the middle because the Brazilian is more willing to drop off and work the flanks.
His wanderlust creates space for wide forwards like Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane to make runs from outside to in to exploit central areas. Those same areas have an almost-permanent resident whenever Aguero starts.
There was a telling moment during the second half against Spurs when Aguero had, for a rare time, left the middle and opted to work the right. The 30-year-old beat his man and chipped a tame cross into an empty box.
No City player had made a run forward in support. Itās likely Sterling and Co. are so unused to Aguero leaving the box it took them a moment to register the quirk and remember to offer support.
Most of the time Aguero will be found in the middle, where his static play limits the options for those in support. For instance, Aguero leading the line forces Sterling to stay wider than heād like.
Tricking his way past a marker isnāt Sterlingās strength. Instead, the former Liverpool man creates danger with his off-the-ball running and using his pace to connect with astute passes from midfield.
The same players who usually play those passes, specifically David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne, can also be impacted by Agueroās central leanings. They are denied the room to run beyond the front and register the goal tallies their technique would surely yield.
It said a lot Guardiolaās first move when he withdrew Aguero against Tottenham was to deploy his midfield talent in a more proactive way:
The move showed Guardiola is conscious of how much more fluid his team is with a different alignment up top. Itās a dilemma heāll face again this season, particularly in the big games.
Donāt be surprised to see Aguero ārestedā for other matches against the top six. Except it shouldnāt be a surprise at all after the way Aguero has held Cityās attack back recently:
Guardiola has options to Cityās No. 10. The arrival of Riyad Mahrez, the match-winner against Spurs, has created a host of possibilities.
Among them, Guardiola can play Sterling through the middle where his pace and direct running will be a nightmare for defenders. Alternatively, Saneās acceleration and shooting power could make the German a sort of 9.5 in the mold of former Arsenal and Manchester United man Robin van Persie, who also began his career as a winger.
Finally, Guardiola could continue with his false 9 experiment tried at Wembley. Silva and De Bruyne can handle the responsibility, but the difficult role may suit Bernardo Silva best.
The Portugal international can drift past defenders and is a threat to score from anywhere thanks to a sweet left foot.
City are good enough to win another title even with a striker who doesnāt quite suit their style. Yet the Citizens may have to be ruthless with a club icon if they are going to add European success to their domestic dominance.