College football fans should prepare for rankings mayhem at end of 2018

The first College Football Playoff rankings of 2018 have been released, and with that, some mayhem will now be unleashed upon the world of college football.

There were no huge surprises in the initial College Football Playoff rankings of 2018. A team or two may be a little high or low, but for the most part, the rankings were as expected, especially within the top six teams.

Don’t expect that kind of comfort level to continue.

You think the BCS used to give us controversy? This year’s College Football Playoff and the rankings at the top will likely be remembered for a long time. Everything is pointing to chaos, mayhem, berzerk and tons of “are you kidding me?” as we approach the end of this season.

Some college football fans may remember the 2007 season, which was fantastic from a perspective of playing hot potato with the highest rankings in the country. Starting in Week 10 of that year (precisely where we are now) through the end of the season, there were…

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Four changes in the number four spot.
Five changes in the number three spot.
Five changes in the number two spot.
Four changes in the number one spot.

Being one of the top four teams in 2007 became a curse, and nobody wanted to hold on to their spot. At some point during that year-end span, nine different teams – Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, Missouri, West Virginia, Georgia, USC, and even Kansas – were ranked within the top four.

The oddest part was that none of these teams were facing each other. Someone within that top four always seemed to be involved in an unlikely upset. Even the NCAA refers to 2007 as “The Year of the Upset“.

We’re going to see more of the same in 2018, and unlike the BCS, there’s a committee (not a computer) who will have to sort this mess out when the smoke clears each week.

So what kind of harum-scarum Chinese fire drill could we see?

For starters, let’s go on record as saying outside of currently undefeated Alabama and Clemson, there are seven, one-loss Power-5 teams who have a legitimate shot at being one of the final four teams in the playoff; LSU, Michigan, Georgia, Oklahoma, Washington State, Kentucky, and Ohio State. (Forgive me, West Virginia fans, but I don’t think it’s in the cards for you.)

We then have undefeated UCF – who has yet to play a team with a winning record – sitting comfortably at No. 12, just waiting for any or all of those one-loss teams to stumble.

Next, there are three…yes, three…SEC teams in the top six – Alabama (1), LSU (3) and Georgia (6), with Kentucky lurking just behind at No. 9. Of that group, we are almost guaranteed some sort of rematch from the regular season in the SEC Championship Game. Here are some interesting ways this plays out.

LSU beats Alabama in their upcoming regular season matchup but then loses to the SEC East champion (Georgia or Kentucky) in the title game. That leaves one-loss Alabama in the same place they were last season – not in the running for an SEC title, but still with a supposedly strong enough resume to remain in the final four teams.

Take that a step further, and assume Georgia beats Kentucky and wins the SEC Championship against LSU. Winning the SEC with just one loss almost guarantees Georgia gets in, but (like last year) without having faced Alabama in the regular season. Does the committee give a repeat of last season and put those two SEC teams in opposite semifinal games, setting up a possible national championship rematch?

Oh my.

Stepping away from the SEC to the next favorite talking point of playoff connoisseurs, Notre Dame.

Clearly, there’s no way Notre Dame gets in the final four without running the table. With no conference championship game, that’s their one point to stand upon. So, the Irish go undefeated – they’re in. The SEC situation mentioned above plays out – they’re both in. Right there we have three playoff spots taken, and only one Power-5 conference represented.

It gets worse. Trust me.

In the regular season, Georgia and Kentucky play each other, so one of them will be out. LSU and Alabama play each other, and should LSU lose then they are likely out. Michigan and Ohio State will face off in their big game, the loser of that game is likely out.

That’s three to four teams out of UCF’s way. A few more upsets by the right teams (particularly Clemson), and by the final week of the season UCF could bust that glass ceiling and find themselves in the playoff.

Think about that possible final four; Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia and UCF. Four teams, and only one Power-5 conference in the playoff.

Heads. Would. Roll.

And what about some of the other oddities we could see.

It’s entirely possible the Big 12 Championship game could be a rematch of the Red River Showdown. If Texas should do the unthinkable and beat Oklahoma twice in one season en route to winning the Big 12, how in the world do you keep them out of the playoff?

Over in the Big Ten, Ohio State still has a real shot at winning the conference. Could they find themselves again in the position of being a Power-5 conference champion with one bad loss (Purdue this year) keeping them out of the playoff? The gnashing and wailing in Columbus would be biblical in scope.

If Washington State wins out and beats (likely) Utah for the Pac-12 title, is their resume strong enough to withstand other teams with just a single loss? Seems like the Pac-12 is the odd man out in that scenario.

If Clemson loses a regular season game but wins the ACC Championship, is their resume strong enough to withstand other one-loss teams or an undefeated UCF?

It boggles the mind to permutate through the endless possibilities.

Over the next four weeks, the top of the College Football Playoff rankings is likely to resemble a game of Jenga. If the wrong team loses and gets removed from the equation, the entire structure could collapse onto the laps of the committee.

So…who’s in? It can’t be everybody, and being limited to just four teams, the playoff committee will have some very hard decisions to make and will absolutely have some ‘splainin to do.