DFS NFL Game by Game Breakdown, Week 9

We have another smaller slate on tap for Week 10 but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t expect some fireworks for DFS NFL this Sunday!

This is going to be a fun DFS NFL slate with one game drawing massive ownership, perhaps the highest we’ve seen all season. There’s a ton of values already to be had so it’s imperative to get a big chunk of the chalk game in cash formats. Even in tournaments, it’s kind of scary to fade this game too much. Let’s dig in and find out what the 10 gamer has in store for us this week!

DFS NFL – Bears at Bills, O/U of 37.0, Bears -10.0

Bears Defensive Ranks 

QB – 12th, 16.6   RB – 3rd, 12.3    WR – 21st, 25.6    TE – 20th, 7.8   D/St – 19th, 6.3 PPG 

Nathan Peterman is due to start in this one which takes the Bills offense totally off the table. Even a player like LeSean McCoy who has some juice left can’t overcome the stink that exudes from Peterman. It’s a 10 game slate so there’s 19 other teams to pick from. Don’t get too cute. The Bills defense is in play virtually every week as that unit is playing their tails off and might be able to make life difficult for Mitchell Trubisky and company in Buffalo.

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Bills D/ST

Bills Defensive Ranks 

QB – 4th, 15.2    RB – 22nd, 21.1     WR – 4th, 19.9    TE – 11th, 6.5   D/ST – 2nd, 10.1 PPG 

On the flip side, I’m not sure I want much to do with the Chicago offense either. Trubisky is at a nice price and carries a floor with his average of 42.3 rushing yards per game. He might represent a different challenge for the Bills but they held Tom Brady in check this past week. I’m not rushing for Trubisky with some of the options that are just a little more expensive.

The skill players are mostly a steer clear but there’s a couple of interesting options. After Tarik Cohen only saw seven touches in a game that Chicago won pretty handily, I’m very concerned about his workload. The Bears defense should have no issues with Peterman and that should lead to ample opportunity for the Bears running game.

If I was totally sure Jordan Howard would get another 22 touches against a defense that’s giving up 106.4 rushing yards per game, he’d be a slam dunk. It’s just not a situation you feel great about right now. Anthony Miller would be a fine play if Allen Robinson were to miss again. His price is virtually identical and he saw seven targets last week. He’s also a nice pivot from the chalk we’ll talk about later. Taylor Gabriel would also enter GPP discussion if Robinson is active and being covered by Tre White. Nobody else is in play for the Bears passing game since they spread the ball around and Trubisky is still learning as a quarterback.

Cash Options – Bears D/ST, Jordan Howard(tough call between cash and GPP), Anthony Miller(if A-Rob is out)

GPP Options – Mitchell Trubisky, Tarik Cohen, Trey Burton, Taylor Gabriel(if Robinson is active)

DFS NFL – Buccaneers at Panthers, O/U of 55.0, Panthers -7.0

Buccaneers Defensive Ranks 

QB – 32nd, 26.2    RB – 23rd, 22.3   WR – 30th, 31.1   TE – 31st, 11.6   D/ST – 30th, 3.4 PPG 

If there’s a Panther player that I don’t like in this matchup, I haven’t found him yet. My two personal favorites are D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey. Moore saw his snaps jump in part due to Torrey Smith being out last week but that really shouldn’t change if Smith comes back. Moore is a prized rookie that the Panthers took with their first pick and he plays the role that has tortured the Bucs so far. They’ve given up 10 touchdowns to the slot receiver so far in just eight games and Moore hovers around 45 percent in the slot. At just $4,300, he’s a super easy fit. Tampa also gives up about 53 yards per game to running backs through the air to go along with three touchdowns so McCaffrey should have a very solid floor in this one. You always worry Cam Newton goes full GOAT-mode on the ground and takes all the touchdowns but CMC will still get plenty of work in an elite matchup. Greg Olsen is still relatively cheap and the Bucs have been gouged by tight ends not named C.J. Uzomah to the tune of the third most yards allowed and four touchdowns. We haven’t even discussed Devin Funchess, who has a career .37 touchdowns per game. If he’s a player in a Panther uniform, you can consider him for any format this week.

Cash/GPP Options – Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Devin Funchess, Greg Olsen

Panthers Defensive Ranks 

QB – 16th, 17.8   RB – 11th, 15.9   WR – 10th, 21.2     TE – 32nd, 12.4   D/ST – 18th, 7.6 PPG 

Ryan “Crazy Eyes” Fitzpatrick(it’s a better nickname than FitzMagic, deal with it) is back in the saddle for the Bucs offense and that typically has meant a little more work for the receivers as opposed to the tight ends. Mike Evans would be very attractive if he wasn’t priced right next to some better options, at least in cash games. DeSean Jackson remained in Tampa past the trade deadline and he and Chris Godwin will be fighting for the second fiddle role. Godwin always has the touchdown upside but Jackson carries the bigger play ability. The total targets are dead even so that’s not much of a help. Godwin does have an edge in red zone targets by a 9-5 spread. I’m not terribly interested in Peyton Barber this week even though Ronald Jones doesn’t lurk at this point. Barber wasn’t getting anything done with Crazy Eyes under center before and the Panthers have been stout against the run. By the numbers, O.J. Howard draws an incredible matchup and would be in my top three with Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen. Despite a middle of the road matchup, the entire passing game is in play. Tampa can’t stop anyone so if nothing else, you should get some garbage time production.

Cash Options – Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mike Evans

GPP Options – DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard

DFS NFL – Chiefs at Browns, O/U of 51.5, Chiefs -9.0

Chiefs Defensive Ranks 

QB – 25th, 20.7    RB – 31st, 25.9   WR – 15th, 23.8    TE – 28th, 10.2    D/ST – 11th, 7.8 PPG 

What a mess in Cleveland. They’ve mercifully moved on from Hue Jackson, who is likely the only NFL coach in recent history to survive so many losses for so long. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley went out the door with him so we have no firm idea of what to expect from new OC Freddie Kitchens. He’s never held this post before so this is a tough spot. The only two players that I trust fully are Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry. Mayfield should be able to clean up a little bit in garbage time and Landry has the highest market share in targets in the league. Even if it drops a little, he’s still commanding a ton of looks.

For everyone else, we’re on the wait and see approach. I think Nick Chubb will still get the majority of work, but Duke Johnson could potentially be a thing again now too. His price is super appealing and he actually saw a handful of targets last week. I just wish I knew he would maintain it with a new OC. David Njoku is a nice bounce back player regardless since…well, he can’t go lower than zero targets so it has to be at least moderately better.

Cash Options – Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry

GPP Options – Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson, David Njoku

Browns Defensive Ranks 

QB – 8th, 15.6   RB – 27th, 23.7   WR – 23rd, 26.5    TE – 12th, 6.7   D/ST – 10th, 7.8 PPG 

Some of who we play from this team depends on the injury to Tyreek Hill. If Hill is out, that opens up almost 24 percent of the targets in this offense. That’s a big number and Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce would be right on the verge of must plays if he misses. I would be a little bit hesitant to play Patrick Mahomes at $7,100 without a primary weapon but Kelce and Watkins would almost surely see 8-10 targets each. Kareem Hunt just keeps on rolling along and is still under $8,000. What’s nice is he’s caught five passes in each of the past three games so that’s really raising his floor on a weekly basis. Chris Conley could enter the discussion as a very cheap receiver if Hill misses but he’s also seen just 19 targets despite routinely playing around 60 percent of the snaps. I’m not sure he’s a safe projection for a huge upswing in targets given who else is available in the offense. The Chiefs defense might be in play here as well. They should be able to generate a couple sacks and a turnover or two against Baker Mayfield and company.

Cash Options – Sammy Watkins(chalk if Hill is out), Travis Kelce

GPP Options – Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill if active

DFS NFL – Jets vs Dolphins, O/U of 45.0, Dolphins -3.0

Jets Defensive Ranks 

QB – 20th, 18.0   RB – 20th, 20.1   WR – 25th, 27.1   TE – 8th, 6.1  D/ST – 6th, 8.1 PPG 

This game isn’t going to garner much attention but there’s some quality options if we look hard enough. The Dolphins represent some nice options on the lower end for receivers with Danny Amendola and DeVante Parker. Amendola was underwhelming in the last game if you take away his passing touchdown but he’s averaging about eight targets a game through the past three contests. Parker burst onto the 2018 scene with a massive game and looked like a good receiver doing it. Even if Kenny Stills is back in action, I have no problem using either one of these players against a defense that has given up just about two passing touchdowns a game.

The running backs are still a mess and are splitting almost evenly. If Kenyan Drake isn’t getting it done through the passing game or ripping off a long run, there’s not enough of a chance that he hits over 15 DK points to pay off his price. Frank Gore is such boring option in a mediocre matchup that I would struggle to use him for any reason as well.

Cash Options – Danny Amendola, DeVante Parker

GPP Options – Kenyan Drake

Dolphins Defensive Ranks 

QB – 14th, 17.3    RB – 29th, 24.8    WR – 17th, 23.9     TE – 21st, 8.5   D/ST – 20th, 6.0 PPG 

If you’re name isn’t Isaiah Crowell and maybe Elijah McGurie or Chris Herndon, there’s really not much of a reason to talk about you in this space. The Dolphins have been bleeding points and yards to running backs, including Lamar Miller in their last game. Crowell was a massive bust in a tough matchup last week but he makes a lot of sense to go back to this week. Miami has given up the third most yards per game and are only two yards per game away from being in the “lead” for the most in football. That’s exactly why I have some interest in a minimum price McGuire provided he’s active for this game. The Jets will want someone to try to take over the role that Bilal Powell before his neck injury. Herndon saw his snaps jump all the way up to 50 percent, which is great compared to the about 30 percent he was getting. Only getting two targets was pretty discouraging but he has found the end zone for  three straight games. He’s a super risk/reward player but if he manages a fourth game with a touchdown, you’d be very happy.

Cash Options – Isaiah Crowell, possibly Elijah McGuire depending on news

GPP Options – Chris Herndon

DFS NFL – Steelers at Ravens, O/U of 47.0, Ravens -3.0

Steelers Defensive Ranks 

QB – 28th, 22.5    RB – 4th, 13.1   WR – 29th, 28.5    TE – 29th, 10.7   D/ST – 15th, 8.0 PPG 

This is going to be a very interesting clash in real life but I’m not sure how much we should be invested for fantasy. Pittsburgh only gives up the sixth least amount of rushing yards and the fourth fewest fantasy points on top of that. Even though Alex Collins is a solid back under $5,000, I don’t think I’ll end up with too much of him this week. Even though he’s $1,000 more, I’d want John Brown ahead of Michael Crabtree since the former actually still has tangible upside. It’s fair to note that Crabtree has more targets than Brown but the aDOT still favors Brown. I really wish any of the tight ends were trustworthy since a guy like Hayden Hurst was up around 45 percent of the snaps. That only translated to three targets so it might not be the best option ever. The Ravens are a fine offense but they’re not a team that I’ll have a lot of this week. The Steelers defense hasn’t given up more than 21 points since they faced this Ravens team the last time around. This could be a relatively low scoring game.

Cash Options – Joe Flacco

GPP Options – John Brown, Ravens D/ST

Ravens Defensive Ranks 

QB – 5th, 15.2   RB – 1st, 12.1    WR – 7th, 20.7    TE – 16th, 7.2   D/ST – 14th, 7.4 PPG 

I’m really not one to sweat Ben Roethlisberger on the road, especially this season. Other than the first week disaster in poor weather, Big Ben has thrown a 5-1 TD/INT ratio and actually has a higher yards per attempt on the road. I might have a share in a GPP but I don’t really want to attack a Ravens defense who is likely to roll into this game pretty sour after they got smacked by the Panthers last week. Baltimore is tough on every part of the offense, so I’m not likely to pay for James Conner even though the price is attractive. In fairness, the price is more than attractive. He’s been the fantasy equivalent of Le’Veon Bell without the price tag. We still do have some potential for Le’Veon Bell to be back in action this week though that situation still hasn’t moved from where we were Week 1. You can always play Antonio Brown or JuJu Smith-Schuster in a GPP but keep in mind the Ravens have allowed the second least passing yards per game on the season. Especially given the slate, this isn’t the spot I’m going to have a lot of exposure to the Steelers.

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster

DFS NFL – Lions at Vikings, O/U of 49.0, Vikings -5.0

Lions Defensive Ranks 

QB – 22nd, 18.0     RB – 28th, 24.2   WR – 12th, 23.0    TE – 24th, 8.6   D/ST – 26th, 5.6 PPG 

Latavius Murray might well be chalk this week since the Lions are giving up the second most rushing yards in the league by 0.1 yards behind the Oakland Raiders. During the last four games without Dalvin Cook, Murray has seen at least 13 touches and that would be enough to get me interested. Most of the time he’s seen around 18 and he should be able to hit the 15 DK points to triple his price. It seems weird to say but Adam Thielen might be against the grain this week. With a certain late game still hovering, people might not want to pay all the way up to Thielen even though you’re getting 12 targets a game and he’s yet to dip under 100 receiving yards. Stefon Diggs has only seen right about one target fewer than Thielen so he’s well in play in GPP’s. His production has been way more up and down so far this season. I know Kyle Rudolph is very cheap but he’s getting no red zone looks and is a distant third in targets at under 13 percent. Kirk Cousins is expensive enough to make me go elsewhere at quarterback.

Cash Options – Adam Thielen, Latavius Murray

GPP Options – Stefon Diggs, Kirk Cousins

Vikings Defensive Ranks 

QB – 15th, 17.7    RB – 13th, 16.6   WR – 4th, 19.3    TE – 23rd, 8.6   D/ST – 13th, 8.6 PPG 

The Lions have 27 percent of their targets open after the Tuesday trade of Golden Tate to the Philadelphia Eagles and that means that Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones are even more attractive than they were when the slate released. Everyone is all over Golladay and I get it but consider this –

I’m not sure that I would spend on either player this week just given the pricing and not knowing for sure who would see the most Xavier Rhodes. Still, the target bump has to be a real thing and it’s going to be tougher for the Lions to run in this game. Kerryon Johnson finally seems to be the unquestioned lead back with over 60 percent of the snaps but in this game, Theo Riddick would need to be out to consider Johnson again. He’s likely going to have to get his work through the air as the Vikings have given up 451 receiving yards to running backs so far. Matthew Stafford‘s price is right but I’m really honing in on a certain few quarterbacks this week.

Cash Options – Kerryon Johnson(if Theo Riddick is out)

GPP Options – Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay

DFS NFL – Falcons at Redskins, O/U of 47.0, Redskins -1.5

Falcons Defensive Ranks 

QB – 31st, 24.8    RB – 25th, 23.3   WR – 31st, 31.4   TE – 18th, 7.5   D/ST – 31st, 2.4 PPG 

The Redskins are one of the few offenses that could make me turn my nose up at them even against Atlanta. If Adrian Peterson has the backfield to himself again, he’s really a strong option even though $6,000 is higher than I would like to go. Chris Thompson and Kapri Bibbs are both questionable with injuries as of this writing. Peterson isn’t an accomplished pass catcher but he hasn’t been a total liability either. Alex Smith is priced super low but let’s say he hits his average of 15.3 DK points. That’s technically 3x return but it’s also incredibly low for a quarterback and doesn’t really help you. I don’t have faith in any pass catcher to expand their role including Jordan Reed despite the match-up. Reed caught seven passes last  week for a season high but did nothing with it. I will almost surely not have any Redskin other than possibly Peterson.

Cash Options – Adrian Peterson

GPP Options – None

Redskins Defensive Ranks 

QB – 17th, 17.9   RB – 7th, 13.5   WR – 19th, 23.9    TE – 13th, 6.7   D/ST – 9th, 9.0 PPG 

The Redskins bolstered an already very solid defensive unit with the addition of safety HaHa Clinton-Dix from the Packers and I’m not very excited for the Falcons players on the road here. Julio Jones is under $8,000 which is typically a smash spot for me but there’s a lot of receivers around that same price range that are far more attractive. They also might score a touchdown which is something Jones has struggled with. Outside of when they got steamrolled in New Orleans, the Redskins have been a good defense and that should continue. Washington managed to shut down Ezekiel Elliott of the Cowboys for one of his worst fantasy days ever so my outlook for Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith aren’t exactly rosy. Coleman is under 60 percent of the snaps and Smith has dropped to under 30. Matt Ryan is cheap but the offensive line has struggled a little bit, giving up 20 sacks. That’s not a giant number but Washington can get after the quarterback with 21 of their own. The Falcons won’t be one of my primary targets on this slate.

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Tevin Coleman, Calvin Ridley

DFS NFL – Texans at Broncos, O/U of 46.0, No favorite listed

Texans Defensive Ranks 

QB – 7th, 15.4    RB – 15th, 17.2   WR – 9th, 21.1   TE – 14th, 7.0   D/St – 3rd, 8.75 PPG 

Well, this side of the ball represents the chalk wide receiver of the week in Courtland Sutton. The trade of Demaryius Thomas opens up right around 20 percent of the total targets and Sutton is leading the Broncos in aDOT. If you’re playing cash it really doesn’t matter how he produces in this spot because he should be 70+ percent owned. In tournaments, it makes plenty of sense to fade him if you wish. That also puts Emmanuel Sanders in play since he’s already the target leader and in line for more but the Texans have been tough on receivers. I wouldn’t expect a monster day here from Sanders or probably Sutton. Obviously one is a lot better due to price point alone.

Phillip Lindsay is coming off a great game against a middle of the road matchup but he’s sort of in no man’s land for pricing. I’d rather pay up for Peterson if his situation is favorable or just pay down to Latavius Murray. Last week was sort of a dream spot for him so I don’t fully expect a repeat against a defense that is only giving up 95.1 yards per game on the ground.

Cash Options – Courtland Sutton(chalk), Broncos D/ST

GPP Options – Emmanuel Sanders, Phillip Lindsay

Broncos Defensive Ranks 

QB – 11th, 16.1    RB – 23rd, 22.3    WR – 13th, 23.1   TE – 25th, 8.7  D/ST – 8th, 7.9 PPG 

The Texans offense will welcome in Demaryius Thomas and it has to be awkward to face your former team in what has always been your home field literally days after the trade went down. That also doesn’t mean I want to use him in this spot and be careful to make sure the site let’s DT accrue points in this game. Sometimes sites don’t permit that to happen when a slate has already been released. You can’t go too wrong with DeAndre Hopkins no matter who the cornerback is because he’s that good. He’s also going to see a massive target share with Will Fuller being out, regardless of Thomas. He’s not my favorite receiver but he’s in play every slate. I also have some hesitation with Deshaun Watson. It’s not a prime spot and even though he appeared healthier, his injuries could flare up with the altitude. Also, facing Von Miller and Bradley Chubb in the pass rush on the other side isn’t inviting either. Lamar Miller is on a hot streak and the Broncos have gotten beat up by backs so far, giving up the sixth most yards per game. It’s still hard to come off Latavius Murray at basically the same price.

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Lamar Miller

DFS NFL – Chargers at Seahawks, O/U of 48.0, Seahawks -1.5

Chargers Defensive Ranks 

QB – 18th, 17.9    RB – 17th, 18.3   WR – 16th, 23.8    TE – 15th, 7.1  D/ST – 25th, 5.6 PPG 

The Seattle offense isn’t exactly pretty but they do have players that are worthwhile to some extent. Chris Carson is begging you to play him this week at a price that’s still under $5,000 and he’s showing that he’s capable of being the workhorse back, toting the rock 14 times or more the past four games. Three of those games, he smashed his price and the one he didn’t saw him lose a touchdown due to penalty. The passing game is still presenting too few opportunities to buy into for me. I’ve been too low on Russell Wilson for weeks and he has five straight games of 26 attempts or fewer and has run the ball just 14 times in that span. I refuse to get suckered in by an unsustainable touchdown rate for Wilson and there’s no player that has seen more than 34 targets through seven games. Tyler Lockett technically leads but under five targets a game isn’t nearly enough.

Cash Options – Chris Carson

GPP Options – Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Ed Dickson

Seahawks Defensive Ranks 

QB – 1st, 13.0    RB – 12th, 16.2   WR – 14th, 23.3   TE – 2nd, 4.5   D/ST – 7th, 9.1 PPG 

One of the bigger injuries on the slate is to Melvin Gordon. The Chargers seem optimistic but very cautious as well. Keep an eye on how the week develops but it’s been a very long time since we’ve been able to deploy Gordon in our lineups. He’s expensive but worth it if he’s fully healthy. If he’s not, Austin Ekeler is in line of r a ton of touches at just $4,300. The passing game is a little tougher to figure out here. Keenan Allen has owned a 25 percent target share but it hasn’t resulted into the fantasy production we all thought it would. He’s a little too pricey given who else you could play for basically the same price tag. Tyrell and Mike Williams both have long touchdowns lately but the targets are at 13 and 12 percent of the targets so that’s hard to hang your hat on for sure. This game doesn’t hold the most appeal but we’ll see how injuries shake out.

Cash Options – Melvin Gordon if active, Austin Ekeler if not

GPP Options – Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Mike Williams

DFS NFL – Rams at Saints, O/U of 60.0, Saints -1.5

Rams Defensive Ranks 

QB – 3rd, 14.7     RB – 9th, 15.4   WR – 18th, 23.9    TE – 17th, 7.3  D/ST – 1st, 10.1 PPG 

Ladies and gentleman, welcome to the main event of the evening! This game has the chance to be one of, if not the highest owned game of the season and with good reason. The over/under is set at 60 and that might be shooting low. Both of these offenses are totally loaded and can put on a show. This could be a spot where Drew Brees is primed to throw 40+ times and his main weapons in the passing game are pretty affordable. It’s not often when Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are both under $8,000 but here we are. They are both primary options with the pressure the Rams can get on a quarterback. Thomas and Kamara excel in the short passing game. Mark Ingram and Tre’Quan Smith are totally fine options as well. If Brees is throwing a ton, there’s enough to go around for everyone.

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Cash Options – Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara

GPP Options – Mark Ingram, Tre’Quan Smith, Ben Watson

Saints Defensive Ranks 

QB – 30th, 24.7    RB – 5th, 13.5   WR – 32nd, 35.9    TE – 3rd, 4.7   D/ST – 27th, 4.7 PPG 

I saw Todd Gurely’s price, realized it went down from the previous week, laughed and then locked him in the lineup. What, did DK penalize him for not punching in that late touchdown last week? $9,500 for what Gurley has done is frankly a joke but I’ll take it happily. The one player that I’m hoping plays is Cooper Kupp. If he does, he’ll get to abuse P.J. Williams in the slot pretty often and is the cheapest Rams receiver, like always. Jared Goff is my quarterback of choice this week and I suspect that will be the case for everyone. Last but not least for this team, BRANDIN COOKS REVENGE. Yes, he whiffed on his chance last year with New England but I don’t think he misses the opportunity again. Every player from the Rams offense works and I’ll take the unusual step of trying to rank the players by position from this game.

QB – Goff, Brees

RB – Gurley, Kamara, Ingram

WR – Kupp(if active), Thomas, Cooks, Woods, Smith

This one should be a blast and if you don’t have a significant chunk of this game, be prepared to drop like a rock unless you’ve really hit all of the best plays from the other games.

Sample Lineup 

QB – Jared Goff

RB – Todd Gurley, Latavius Murray

WR – Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Courtland Sutton

TE – Travis Kelce

Flex – Elijah McGuire

D/ST – Denver Broncos

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