FanDuel NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball GPP Breakdown October 31

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FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Wednesday, October 31

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown. I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love NBA DFS more than 15 year-olds love dressing up in half-assed costumes and trick-or-treating just to get candy even though they’re too old (a special Halloween edition bad joke)  All kidding aside, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests on FanDuel.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

We have a relatively small FanDuel NBA 7-game slate tonight, but I absolutely love these medium-sized slates for GPPs.  There are some really juicy games tonight for DFS purposes and I’m going to introduce my “Game Stack of Night” which is my favorite game to target with multiple players from both teams.

We had some success here yesterday with two Kings players (crazy, I know!) with both Buddy Hield and my man Nemanja Bjelica both having big nights. Kawhi Leonard also reminded everyone what he’s capable of doing on any given night and Nikola Vucevic still managed to go for 43.5 FD points despite inexplicably playing only 27 minutes (I thought these days were behind us when the Magic fired Frank Vogel!)

Remember, this is a first look article, so always make sure to check Twitter for injury updates as it gets closer to lock.  If you’re not following some NBA beat writers for the latest news, you should at least be getting push notifications to your phone when players are declared out with injuries. NBA DFS is an information game and having access to all the info you need right up until lineup-lock is crucial to making sure your lineups have a chance at being in contention when the west coast games wrap up in the wee hours of the morning.  Now, let’s get to the breakdown!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: GPP Roster Construction

I wanted to take a minute to talk about roster construction on FanDuel since they’ve made a major change this year with dropping your lowest score.  Punting one or two roster spots has appeared to be a very viable strategy this year, as it simply allows you to roster more 7k+ players with higher ceilings.  My best FanDuel NBA lineups have been made using this strategy and I guarantee if you start looking at winning GPP lineups in the tournaments you’re entering you’ll see others are doing it, too.

I mentioned on Twitter the other day that I consider these crazy high totals to be “the new norm” in the NBA and we’re going to continue to see points scored an incredible rate all year (I mean, the Utah Jazz are playing in a game with a 224 total tonight!)  Even with only 8 spots counting on FD, we are seeing winning GPP lineups that are topping 350 FD points with regularity, which means we’re looking for an average of 40-50 points from those 8 players in our lineups.  You simply cannot get a floor game from any of those 8 spots that count if you want to be in contention to take down a tourney.

"The key to winning a GPP on any given night is finding players who hit their ceilings.  5x or even 6x value is not enough. We want 7x or better from players in order to take down GPP contests."

Someone asked me the other day what I looked for when determining whether a player is a “cash play” vs a “GPP play” and I think there’s an important distinction to make. It’s not just about the level of risk. Sometimes we think a GPP play is just an inconsistent player whose performance outcomes vary drastically from really good to really bad, while cash game players are those who have a more predictable game log. But to me, there’s something else I’m looking at.

When looking for cash plays, it’s all about minutes and usage. Give me players who are going to play 30+ minutes and have a 20% or greater usage.  More often than not, those players are going to have safer floors because they are going to put up their usual amount of shots every game get their points. But for GPP’s my favorite stat to look at is fantasy points-per-minute.  If you’ve been reading this column for a while you might notice I mention it quite often. I’m usually looking for players who can get 1.2 or more FPPM because that means they have the potential to score well beyond their average if they get more minutes than usual, have a really hot shooting night, or rack up a bunch of defensive stats.

I simply won’t roster players in GPPs that aren’t able to produce solid per-minute results regardless of their price. And with that being said, let’s dive into the picks for tonight’s slate!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Point Guards

Steph Curry (9900) vs. Pelicans

We are still waiting for a line for this game, but if Anthony Davis is a go for the Pelicans (and I’m counting on him suiting up against the champs tonight) then this game should have a total in the 230’s and I would expect a single digit spread with how well New Orleans was playing before he got hurt (4-0). If Davis plays, I expect this to be a high-scoring affair and I think the Pelicans have the firepower to score with them and keep it close.

Steph has been simply amazing this season, scoring with ease on his way to averages of 32-5-5. What might get lost in the shuffle from Monday night’s blowout of the Bulls is the fact that Curry had 52 FD points in only 24 minutes and attempted only 9 shots, while it took teammate Klay Thompson 29 shots to get 51 real-life points and 59 FD points.  With Elfrid Payton out again for New Orleans, one of their bench guards has the unfortunate assignment of trying to guard Curry.  Steph is locked in and he’s my favorite Warrior to roster tonight and I think he goes for a season-high if the game stays close late.

Jamal Murray (7400) @ Chicago

This game is loaded with fantasy potential, too, however, I am a bit concerned that Chicago may not be able to hang with Denver despite the Nuggets being only 7.5 point road favorites. Maybe being embarrassed by the Warriors on Monday will have the Bulls fired up tonight and they can keep it close.

Murray is going to continue to be the Denver player I roll out there until his price gets to be too much. He’s picking up the slack on offense and filling the void left by the injury to Will Barton. His 24% usage is encouraging as he’s basically playing more like a shooting guard with Jokic facilitating on offense and Monte Morris running the second unit. The matchup couldn’t be better Chicago ranks near last in every defensive metric and neither Cam Payne nor Zach Lavine look particularly interested in playing any defense any time soon. Even if the game blows out, I think Murray can make value and I plan to be overweight on him tonight.

Values: Rajon Rondo (5800), Cameron Payne (5100)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Shooting Guards

Jrue Holiday (8300) vs. Golden State

Elfrid Payton has already been ruled out tonight.  With Elf on the shelf (sorry, too early for a Christmas joke), Holiday takes over as the primary ball-handler and play-maker. He came through as chalk on Monday coming up only two boards and one assist short of a triple-double. If Davis plays tonight, then I would expect Holiday’s ownership to come back down but I still think he’s an excellent play either way.

This is the type of game in which Holiday can thrive and he’s had great success against the Warriors recently. In his last three games against them, he’s averaged 22-8-6.  At this price, he’s my favorite spend up at the shooting guard position.  He’s shooting a career-low 42% from the field right now, and that won’t last forever. This is the kind of spot where we can see a ceiling game from Holiday and see 50+ FanDuel points.

Wesley Matthews (4900) @ L.A. Lakers

I’m jumping all the way down to a guy who could qualify as a value play and probably a player you’re used to using in cash games. But I love this Mavs-Lakers game tonight and I love how affordable so many of the Dallas pieces are. Wes was rolling before Monday’s overtime loss to the Spurs having scored 20 or more real-life points in four straight before putting up a dud.

The good news is he played 39 minutes in that game and is being leaned on by coach Rick Carlisle for his veteran leadership with young guards Dennis Smith Jr. and Luka Doncic in the starting lineup. In the absence of Dirk Nowitzki, Matthews is attempting 8 threes a game and posting a career-high 22% usage rate. If he gets hot from downtown, it won’t take long for him to pay off this price-tag and easily push for 7-8x value.

Value: Josh Okogie (4200 – if Wiggins sits again), Allen Crabbe (3900)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Small Forwards

Nikola Mirotic (7700) @ Golden State

Once again we have a player from the Warriors-Pelicans game.  Mirotic has simply been too good this season to ignore at this price and I really want to target him in this game that should be pretty fast-paced and free-wheeling. If Davis sits out then Mirotic becomes chalky and I like him less. But if Davis plays, I like Mirotic even more as he’s likely to get more open looks with the Warrior having to focus more on defending the Brow.

Miro’s best two games this season were with Davis in the lineup and through six games his usage rate is still at 26% so I expect him to get his shots up in this game with or without Davis.  If you’re not interested in paying top dollar for LeBron or KD, then it makes perfect sense to lock in Miro in your first SF slot.

Harrison Barnes (5900) vs L.A. Lakers

Barnes has looked rusty after missing the first four games of the season for the Mavs, shooting only 36% from the floor in his first three games back. But the good news is that he’s still underpriced in DFS and he’s back to playing his full 34 minutes a game. He showed signs of getting back on track Monday when he shot 8-14 from the field and again I am drawn to these really cheap Dallas players in this high total game against the Lakers. Like Wes Matthews, Barnes is usually a better cash play but he’s taking 15 shots a game and with Dirk still out the Mavs need their wings to shoot the ball. I’ll have a healthy dose of Harrison in the hope that he breaks out in a a major way tonight.

Value: Jae Crowder (4900 – If Favors sits again)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Power Forwards

Anthony Davis (12800) @ Golden State

AD is the biggest piece of the slate that needs to fall into place. He is a polarizing figure in DFS because of his oft-injured status, but there is simply no one in the NBA who can top his production when he’s on the court. I really hope he plays because his ceiling against the Warriors is like 10000 fantasy points tonight if he makes it through all four quarters without re-aggravating his elbow injury.

Okay, that might be an exaggeration, but we are talking about a guy who’s already gone for 70 and 80 FD points this season in only four games played and happens to have done some serious damage in this spot before. In his last six games against Golden State, the Brow is averaging 29-14-2-2-2 which would be good for 61 FD points. He’s always a risk to roll out there and we are still paying nearly top dollar, but if I can get the guy who can break the slate at low ownership tonight, I’ll happily take as many shares as I can. Let’s just hope he plays!

Kyle Kuzma (6500) vs. Dallas

Back to Lakers-Mavericks game but this time I want to focus on a underpriced Lakers player in Kuzma.  Even though Brandon Ingram returned the lineup on Monday after serving his four-game suspension, Kuzma remained in the lineup with Ingram, Lonzo, LeBron, and McGee. Both Ingram and Kuz put up 18 shots in the loss to Minnesota and I’ll take the 600 dollar discount on Kuz here over Ingram to save some cap. Ingram may be a better all-around fantasy contributor, but Kuz is the guy who can get hot on offense and explode for a big game.

Value: Trey Lyles (4400)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Centers

Rudy Gobert (9100) @ Minnesota

The “Stifle Tower” is heating up in a big way with back to back dominant performances in which he averaged 24-15 with a ridiculous 3.5 blocks and 1.5 steals. Gobert and Towns have had some epic battles over the last three years with both guys having big games, but I’ll take Gobert in this matchup tonight. Towns is coming off his first big game which could inflate his ownership and Gobert has simply been more consistent this season.

I like the Jazz to win, and Gobert to frustrate KAT with his length. He’s averaged 3 blocked shots against him in 12 career meetings and had a massive 26-16 game against him just last year. I have the feeling many will want to pay up to Nikola Jokic and Andre Drummond or down to JaVale McGee and completely overlook Gobert and…

DeAndre Jordan (8300) @ L.A. Lakers

How can I not come back to DJ again tonight in my favorite game of the night? He was held to single-digit points on Monday for the first time this season but was still able to grab 19 boards for the second game in a row. I love his chances for 20+ rebounds tonight in a game that should get up and down and while JaVale McGee is making some noise in the fantasy community, he’s not shown the ability to slow down Nikola Jokic or KAT in the last two Laker losses. DeAndre should eat tonight!

Value: Mitchell Robinson (4400)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

Dallas Mavericks (+6.5) @ L.A. Lakers (235 total)

This is by far my favorite game tonight and I can’t wait to build several different variations of game-stacks. The tempo of this game is going to be fast. Dallas was already playing faster than they have in years past since Dirk Nowitzki has been out all season, and now they get a major pace boost as the Lakers are the second highest pace team on the slate (tenths of a point behind New Orleans).

I’ve already mentioned most of my favorite pieces earlier in the article, but you’re probably wondering “what about Lebron? At 12,400, I’m not all that interested in him as he’s topped out at 64.7 FD points this season and been held under 50 twice in 7 games. With the Lakers at full strength, he’s simply not going to have to do it all and I’d much rather use the secondary pieces from the Lakers to make more balanced builds.

Rajon Rondo has come off the bench to outplay starter Lonzo Ball two games in a row now and I like using him for some value. I think the logical pairing is with either Brandon Ingram or Kyle Kuzma at PF and even JaVale McGee (7000) isn’t totally out of the question although he’s finally being priced correctly.

For the Mavericks, I’m not chasing Luka Doncic‘s big outing from Monday because he’s now 8000 and has only scored 40+ FD points now in two of seven games this season. Dennis Smith Jr (6500), Wes Matthews, Harrison Barnes, and DeAndre Jordan are all in play for me and I’ll likely try pairing two of them up in lineups together.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Slate Overview

This is shaping up to be a really fun slate. Obviously, we need the Anthony Davis news before we can really figure out which way we want to go and the good news is that the Pelicans are expected to make an announcement after he tests his elbow out in the morning shootaround.

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If he plays, AD is a priority spend for me.  But if he sits, I’m not going to totally fade the Warriors-Pelicans game as I think it could still have some serious fantasy appeal. The Lakers and Mavericks are important pieces today and there’s nice value to be had with Rondo, Kuzma, Matthews, and Barnes.  Using Gobert or DJ at center should be fairly contrarian as they are priced right in the 8-9k range that may get overlooked.

Here’s where I am at with my build as of 6:00 AM.

PG: Steph Curry (9900)

PG: Rajon Rondo (5800)

SG: Wes Matthews (4900)

SG: Jrue Holiday (8300)

SF: Harrison Barnes (5900)

SF: Jae Crowder (4900)

PF: Trey Lyles (4400)

PF: Kyle Kuzma (6500)

C: Rudy Gobert (9100)

Thanks again for reading and be sure to check out the rest of the great FREE content @fantasyCPR. As always, hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS with any questions or comments. Good luck in your contests and Happy Halloween!