NBA Fantasy Basketball – DFS Stack Attack: 10/31/18

Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in NBA Fantasy DFS with the Stack Attack!

Happy Halloween CPR crew! We’re in the thick of the NBA Fantasy Basketball season with two weeks under our belt and Tyronn Lue has already lost his job, the Bucks are undefeated and it seems like every team in the league is putting up at least 110 points per night. That’s how exciting the 2018-19 season has been so far!

As I mentioned in my previous stacking article last week, I am unable to play NBA DFS or Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on.

We’ve got a rather quiet slate for a Wednesday in the NBA as only 14 teams take the floor, highlighted by a battle of two Western Conference offensive giants in the Warriors and Pelicans.

With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.

In this article, I will highlight the top overall game stack of the slate followed by a secondary game stack and a quick list of value stacks.

Top Game Stack: New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors

Pelicans Team Ranks:

Pace: 4th (108.6 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 3rd (113.1 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 20th (109.2 points allowed per 100 possessions)

Although rather obvious, the Pelicans side of the ball has to start with Anthony Davis ($12.8k FD / $11.4k DK). While his availability hinges on morning shootaround, it’s hard for me to believe he’d miss this game against the Western Conference powerhouse. Over his last 2 seasons against the Warriors, Davis has averaged 33 points, 14 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.3 blocks and 1.7 steals in 39.7 minutes per game. He’s really they’re only hope at winning this game so if he’s active, he should see all the minutes he can handle and his 29.4% usage rate negates his high salary.

If Davis is to sit, our attention would turn to Jrue Holiday ($8.3k FD / $7.2k DK), Nikola Mirotic ($7.7k FD / $7.5k DK), and Julius Randle ($6.6k FD / $6.5k DK). Without Anthony Davis, these players carries usage rates of 24.8%, 27.1% and 30.9% respectively. While the Warriors are an above-average defensive team, it’s hard not to love these guys if AD sits, especially Julius Randle. With his 30.9% usage rate with AD off the court, he should have all of the opportunity in the world against Damien Jones. If Davis is to play, this would downgrade all three of them and likely bump Holiday and Mirotic out of cash consideration given their salaries, but Randle is cheap enough to play regardless.

With Elfrid Payton already ruled out, this leaves some playing time on the table for Frank Jackson ($3.5k FD / $3.4k DK) who saw a career-high 26 minutes last game in Payton’s absence. With the ability to drop your lowest score on FanDuel, he makes a ton of sense as a punt with above-average upside for his salary.

Warriors Team Ranks:

Pace: 12th (105.0 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 1st (118.9 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 13th (104.9 points allowed per 100 possessions)

A pace-up game for the Warriors? That’s right, look out. One game after Klay Thompson ($6.6k FD / $6.4k DK) erupted for 52 points and an NBA-record 14 three pointers last game, he gets to face a difficult task going up against Jrue Holiday. With Holiday being a great perimeter defender, I wouldn’t expect another ceiling game from Klay, but his salary across both major sites makes him an intriguing cash game play considering how hot he is.

If I am going to recommend buying into to any two Warriors tonight, it’s going to be Steph Curry ($9.9k FD / $9.8k DK) and Kevin Durant ($10.8k FD / $9.6k DK). Steph has the potential to Steph as he’ll primarily be matched up with a combination of Frank Jackson and Ian Clark. He could see his share of Jrue Holiday as well, but I still believe he is under-priced for the game script and matchups and comes in as one of the safest cash plays on the slate.

Durant has been extra efficient this season (shocker), averaging 28.3 ppg (highest since 2013-14), 7.5 rpg and 6.1 assists per game (would be a career high). He’s doing all of this on an effective FG% of 59.5% and is still only shooting 34.3% from behind the arc. This means that he could heat up even more from downtown. You likely won’t be able to afford him if you choose to go with AD if he plays, but he has a case to make for the top stud of the slate going up against the “defense” of Nikola Mirotic.

Secondary Game Stack: Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers

Mavericks Team Ranks:

Pace: 17th (104.1 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 23rd (103.8 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 26th (112.2 points allowed per 100 possessions)

I’m not usually one to recommend stacking against a LeBron-led team, but frankly, this 2018-19 Lakers’ defense has left a lot to be desired. They currently rank 25th in the league in defensive efficiency and 5th in pace, creating one of the most fantasy-friendly environments in the entire NBA.

Their weak spot continues to be the interior even with the addition of JaVale McGee, making DeAndre Jordan ($8.3k FD / $7.6k DK) a safe cash play. This season, he is averaging 14.3 points and 15.1 rebounds per game to go along with 1.7 blocks. The Lakers rank 16th in the NBA in rebounds per game (45.3) and with the pace-up tempo, this will allow for more possessions and rebounding opportunities for Jordan.

The two other Mavs players worth considering are rookie phenom Luka Doncic ($8.0k FD / $7.3k DK) and Wesley Matthews ($4.9k FD / $5.0k DK). Doncic has quickly taken over the offensive reigns in Dallas, averaging 20.4 points per game while playing roughly 35 minutes per game. The matchup with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope worries me a bit, but KCP has been seeing a drastic decrease in minutes lately (6 last game), giving reason for optimism for Doncic’s matchup. Regardless, he is a stronger play dollar-for-dollar on DraftKings.

Matthews continues to be criminally underpriced for someone who plays a consistent amount of minutes as he’s seen less than 32 minutes only once and played 39 last game against the Spurs. He’s rather scoring dependent, but when a player at $4.9k/$5.0k is averaging 15.3 field goal attempts per game, he provides an extremely safe floor for cash games with easy 5x potential.

Lakers Team Ranks:

Pace: 5th (108.3 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 8th (110.5 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 25th (111.8 points allowed per 100 possessions)

After the Lakers’ last loss against Timberwolves, LeBron voiced his frustration in the locker room and said “you don’t want to be around” when his patience runs out. Could anything in the world be more dangerous than a fired up Lebron James ($12.4k FD / $11.3k DK)?

He’s averaging 27.6 points, 9.1 rebounds, 8.3 assists and 2.0 steals per game for over 54 fantasy points on each site. I see no reason why he doesn’t do everything he can to will his team to a win tonight, putting him right next to Anthony Davis as the top stud on the slate. If Davis sits, it’d be hard to not consider James to be THE top stud on the slate against a DAL defense that ranks 26th in the league.

Rajon Rondo ($5.8k FD / $5.7k DK) returned from suspension and immediately picked up right where he left off, playing 31 minutes (8 more than Lonzo Ball) while posting a well-rounded 13/6/8 stat line. Dennis Smith Jr. is not a threat defensively but the fact that Rondo accrues most of his production via peripheral stats only helps his case. he’s a phenomenal play in all formats on both sites.

We saw Kyle Kuzma ($6.5k FD / $6.1k DK) salary drop with the return of Brandon Ingram ($7.1k FD / $6.3k DK) but he was able to retain his starting spot, record 7 more minutes than Ingram (32 total) and produce a nice 19/6/3 stat line against a Minnesota front-court that has a decent amount of size on him. I expect him to match up well with Dwight Powell, making him a solid play on both sites. Ingram seems a bit over-priced on FanDuel, but his salary is reasonable enough on DraftKings to throw in a GPP.

Top NBA Fantasy Basketball –  DFS Value Stacks

Detroit Pistons

Pace: 23rd (102.6 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 16th (105.5 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 15th (107.1 points allowed per 100 possessions)

Whenever a team matches up with the Brooklyn Nets, there’s a good chance you are looking their way from a fantasy perspective.

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Ish Smith ($4.6k FD / $4.5k DK) has seen at least 26 minutes in every game he’s played this season but has struggled to turn that into meaningful production. He’s actually played more minutes than starting PG Reggie Jackson over the past two games and still took 7 shots last game while adding 4 assists, 2 boards and a steal. If he is able to step up the peripheral stats in a plus matchup, he could be a great value piece tonight.

Stanley Johnson ($4.3k FD / $3.8k) is in a similar position as Smith. The minutes are there for his price, however the production has not been. The encouraging part about Johnson is the fact that he’s attempting 8.5 shots per game (career high) and has an effective FG% of 47.1% (also a career high). He’s more than capable of adding blocks and steals as an above-average defender and also won’t hurt you too much if he flops given how cheap he is.

You could also throw Andre Drummond ($9.1k FD / $9.0k DK) in the mix as a value play on a point-per-dollar basis as he is far too cheap for the ceiling he provides against a Nets team that ranks 24th in the league in rebounding (43 per game) and has little to no post-presence on offense.

Indiana Pacers

Pace: 30th (100.3 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 11th (109.0 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 7th (102.3 points allowed per 100 possessions)

Don’t look now, but Darren Collison ($5.3k FD / $4.7k DK) has quietly put together two strong games going over 30 fantasy points and saw a season-high 36 minutes last game against the Blazers. He draws a much easier matchup against Trey Burke tonight and if he can build on his 16 ppg over his last two, he should be in line for another strong game tonight.

Big men Domantas Sabonis ($5.3k FD / $5.8K DK) and Myles Turner ($5.8k FD / $5.9k DK) continue to produce at an inconsistent level and see erratic playing time, but are both averaging over a fantasy point per minute (1.30 and 1.02 respectively).

Sabonis in particular had 41 FanDuel points in only 21 minutes of action against the Spurs last week as he posted a 16-point, 10-rebound double-double, showing off some impressive efficiency.

Turner on the other hand saw over 30 minutes last game for the first time this season and could see a similar workload against Enes Kanter tonight, making him an intriguing play given his ceiling.

Thank you all for reading the NBA DFS Stack Attack for the 10/31 Main Slate! If you have questions, fire away on Twitter (@JMetz34)! Good luck tonight!