How each rookie NFL quarterback has fared halfway through 2018 season

Sam Darnold

What’s to like:

The New York Jets committed themselves to develop Sam Darnold this year, starting him all eight games thus far. The 21-year-old will benefit from this exposure, even if it’s not paying immediate dividends for the team this year. First-year offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates has tried to run a pure West Coast system to play to Darnold’s strengths.

So far, Darnold’s shown many of his positive characteristics from USC. He’s a very good athlete and improvises outside of the pocket. He can hit passing windows that require perfect touch and timing on his best plays.

The high-upside of his play is what’s worth banking on for the franchise. If he can string together just a few drives a game with these special plays, the team can flourish.

His Week 5 game against Denver had relatively benign statistics, but it was his most encouraging game as far as the development of his deep passing. He had two deep touchdown throws that were perfect, an area that was a huge weakness at USC and for the Jets thus far.

He followed that up with Week 6’s performance against a limited Colts defense. Darnold’s only really affected two games with his play this year, so these back-to-back games were encouraging that he’ll be able to execute the scheme and transcend it at times.

Where to improve:

The turnovers are an issue still for Darnold. Already with 10 interceptions and 17 sacks, Darnold is living up to my Jameis Winston pre-draft comparison. The game moves fast for him as underneath defenders are often quick to step in front of his targets.

That wasn’t going to suddenly change in eight games, but it must not continue at this rate. A whopping four percent of his throws have been interceptions, which puts him directly into the company of journeymen gunslingers who never won anything significant.

He must become more than a short passer over time as well. The Jets have an elite deep threat in Robby Anderson and their chemistry must be a priority for the offense. Other options Quincy Enunwa and Jermaine Kearse are solid players who fit the West Coast scheme, but aren’t star talents.

The timing of his passes must be quicker, and the placement must be sharper. Too often he’s a little too late making his decision, and he’s missing just enough to make his receivers work hard to finish the play. About half of the drops his receivers have logged were plays they had to adjust their route in order to get their hands on it.

Outlook:

We knew Darnold was a moderate project coming out of USC. The team essentially threw this year away by starting him, whether they admit it publicly or not. This may have been a playoff-caliber team with the right veteran quarterback who could do more than a very basic scheme.

But this is a fine move for his growth. He has eight more games to build confidence and good habits, such as looking off defenders, reading leverage, understanding hot reads and personnel mismatches. Darnold is a smart player, otherwise the big-time plays he occasionally hits wouldn’t be happening.

Darnold is the most difficult quarterback of the top-four to project still. He’s played this exact way for two years at USC and half a season with the Jets. He’s a high-variance player who is unpredictable on a weekly basis. His floor must rise to be average, or else he could be facing a similar situation as Winston at the end of his contract.

The Jets can certainly do more to help him reach his potential.

The Jets must continue to upgrade the talent around him, especially finding a No. 1 receiver and a more proficient offensive line. They could choose to overhaul their coaching staff, though I like Todd Bowles. Choosing to dump John Morton looks like the wrong decision thus far, though.