Josh Allen
What’s to like:
Believe it or not, there have been positives for Buffalo Bills first-round pick Josh Allen beyond the fact that his contract can be terminated in 2021 without dead money. In all seriousness, even in Allen’s struggles, the Bills made their investment into him in order to get a big return in a few years, not right away.
What’s stood out thus far is his potential to be effective on short and intermediate distance throws to the sideline. His arm strength doesn’t need an introduction, and it’s a terrific asset as it’s capable of negating being late on a read or decision. If, and this is the “if” that’ll determine his career path, his accuracy is good enough, his throws can require perfect positioning for defenders to have a chance.
His athleticism and ability to stay upright has also been a buildable trait for the offense. Though he should never again be compared to Cam Newton for his raw talent, he does share the knack for breaking tackles and keeping his eyes downfield. He’s taken 21 sacks on the season, but his offensive line hasn’t been helpful in avoiding quick pressures on many of those.
The raw goods have been on display in fleeting moments with Allen, and those handful of passes each week serve as a reminder as to why the team’s brass felt he was their guy instead of Josh Rosen.
Where to improve:
As expected, there’s been more bad than good thus far. Allen shouldn’t have been named starter this year, but the team’s short-sighted decision to trade Tyrod Taylor without a solidified plan to replace the veteran with another stopgap has completely backfired. It’s led to Allen fighting against sharks despite being armed with a fly swatter to combat defenses.
Allen’s play-to-play accuracy has been middling even as his footwork and drops from center have been more consistent. It’s good that he’s already taken to coaching, but bad how similar the results have been. That points to him simply lacking the natural ability to reliably control the ball.
He can overcome that by hitting more big plays, but there’s little to suggest he’ll ever be a quality precision passer.
The turnover-worthy plays and current elbow injury continue to highlight a reckless style of play and struggles protecting himself from bad situations. He has only five interceptions, but has benefitted from several others going through the hands of defenders. His late reads on timing routes routinely lead to missed opportunities for the offense.
Hopefully comfort and experience help his feel for the position and improve his anticipation.
Most worrisome is the utter lack of football awareness. Situational football separates winners from losers on a weekly basis, and Allen has never demonstrated he’s competent on conversion downs or able to progress quickly to mismatches.
Everything moves slowly for Allen’s eyes and his arm can only make up for it so often. He’s only played the position for a few years, and it has certainly been reflected on the field.
Outlook:
Allen’s numbers simply won’t do him any justice due to the structure around him. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has done a decent job scheming open looks and trying to give extra blockers for Allen, but none of the positional groups have played at an average level. It’s difficult to isolate Daboll’s performance due to it.
When Allen returns from injury, Daboll has to continue getting him on the move and cutting the field in half. His strengths extending plays and throwing deep passes haven’t been highlighted enough this year. If he can hit a few, hopefully defenses will loosen their grip on underneath routes and easy pre-snap reads will reveal themselves.
There’s probably a pathway to Allen being a productive quarterback in the league. He’ll need better protection than what he has and, more importantly, elite weapons around him who have above-average body control and quickness. Big-bodied, slow receivers who don’t get open early may be less likely to earn Allen’s trust.
Keeping him on the move and out of complete scramble drill situations is also important. The number of sacks he takes isn’t the big concern, but rather how often he’s killed drives by going backwards and losing more yards than necessary. He must limit damage when possible.
Houston’s approach with Deshaun Watson could be a rewarding template for Daboll. Watson manufactures many deep opportunities based on his own feel for the game. Allen isn’t nearly as natural as Watson is, but relying on chunk plays could bear better results for the offense than trying to shoehorn him into a timing-based attack.