FanDuel NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball GPP Breakdown: Thursday, November 1

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Thursday, November 1

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown. I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love NBA DFS more than 16-year olds love Snapchat (no you can’t “snap” me by the way.)

All kidding aside, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

We have an awesome medium-sized FanDuel NBA 6-game slate tonight.  We often get only 3-4 games on a Thursday but tonight we have 6 and the NBA did a really nice job of spreading games out this week.  I absolutely love these medium-sized slates for GPPs because there are usually more opportunities to leverage ownership and avoid the chalk.  There are some really juicy games tonight for DFS purposes and I’m going to give you a game by game breakdown of all six games before revealing my “Game Stack of Night” which is my favorite game to target with multiple players from both teams.

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. no major injury news we are waiting on for today, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be some surprises during the day with players resting.

Always make sure to check Twitter for injury updates throughout the day and especially close to lineup lock. Try following some NBA beat writers for the latest news and/or set up push notifications to your phone from Fantasy labs or Rotogrinders.  NBA DFS is an information game and having access to all the info you need right up until lineup-lock is crucial to making sure your lineups have a chance at being in contention.  Now, let’s get to the breakdown!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: GPP Roster Construction

I wanted to take a minute to talk about roster construction on FanDuel since they’ve made a major change this year with dropping your lowest score.  Punting one or two roster spots has appeared to be a very viable strategy this year, as it simply allows you to roster more 7k+ players with higher ceilings.  My best FanDuel NBA lineups have been made using this strategy and I guarantee if you start looking at winning GPP lineups in the tournaments you’re entering you’ll see others are doing it, too.

"If you’re not taking some chances with cheap players, you’re doing it wrong."

Even with only 8 spots counting on FD, we are seeing winning GPP lineups that are topping 350 FD points with regularity, which means we’re looking for an average of 40-50 points from those 8 players in our lineups.  You simply cannot get a floor game from any of those 8 spots that count if you want to be in contention to take down a tourney. Taking chances with cheap players in order to pay up for the studs you really want just makes a lot of sense.

When looking for cash plays, I’m usually focusing mainly on minutes and usage. Give me players who are going to play 30+ minutes and have a 20% or greater usage rate.  More often than not, those players are going to have safer floors, but if they are inefficient scorers they may lack the ceiling that we’re looking for in GPP plays.

"The key to winning a GPP on any given night is finding players who hit their ceilings.  5x or even 6x value is not enough. We want 7x or better from players in order to take down GPP contests."

My favorite stat to look at is fantasy points-per-minute.  If you’ve been reading this column for a while you might notice I mention it quite often. I’m usually looking for players who can get 1.2 or more FPPM because that means they have the potential to score well beyond their average if they get more minutes than usual, have a really hot shooting night, or rack up a bunch of defensive stats.  It wasn’t a coincidence that I had Domantas Sabonis pictured on this page yesterday as well.  Sabonis has been hyper-efficient this season and last night’s 30-9-3 line on 12-12 shooting in only 21 minutes was the perfect illustration of what makes a really him a great GPP play every night. He averaged over 2 FPPM last night on his way to 45.3 FanDuel points.  @2locksports, I think I could be approaching “Tim Hardaway” status with Sabonis this season. (Editors note from 2Locksports – approaching Tim Hardaway status is a surefire way to DFS success).

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: New Orleans @ Portland (no total yet)

This should be a fun, fast-paced game between two good Western conference teams.  The Trailblazers will look for some revenge at home tonight against the Pelicans who swept them in the first round of the playoff last year. The Pelicans are coming off a tough loss to the Warriors last night and will look to bounce back after dropping their third game in a row after staring 4-0.

The obvious play on the Portland side is Damian Lillard (9600) who bounced back for an efficient 22-3-7 in only 27 minutes of Tuesday’s blowout win over Houston. Dame was on fire to start the season so his one bad game and one blowout-shortened have brought his price back down to where he’s playable. He really struggled last year in the playoffs against New Orleans as he shot only 35% from the field and only averaged 18-4-4 in those four games. I like him to have a big game at home here and I think he’ll be motivated to show last year’s series was just a fluke.

There might be some solid value in bench players Evan Turner (4500) and Zach Collins (4700) who are both seeing minutes now in the mid-20’s. Turner has been running the second unit and doing a little of everything, while the talented seven-foot sophomore Collins has been really solid, averaging 11-4 with 2 blocks in 21 minutes a game.

The Pelicans have been a really solid offensive team, but their star Anthony Davis didn’t look 100% healthy last night. I am going to avoid playing him at his excessive cost until we see him return to form, and it’s even possible he could sit out tonight with how often the “rest strategy is being used.” Jrue Holiday (8300) and Nikola Mirotic (7700) would be the two guys I’m looking at as they both played well last night and could continue to be forced into larger roles in the offense with AD ailing.

My overall interest level in this game is kind of low, which surprises even myself because when I first saw it on the slate I thought it looked good. Unless we get some AD injury news that forces us to give Miro, Holiday, and then also Jusuf Nurkic (6800) more consideration, I’ll probably limit my exposure to this game.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Milwaukee @ Boston (215 total)

We have yet another playoff rematch as this time its Eastern conference foes that face off in what should be a hard-fought, competitive game. Giannis Antetokuonmpo (11500) has been cleared to play tonight as a concussion forced him to leave the Orlando game early and miss the Bucks last game against the Raptors. This may be the lowest total on the slate, but it’s still a game we need to pay attention to tonight.

Giannis got a nice little reduction in pricing and is firmly in play for me as one of the top GPP options on the slate. In the four games that he’s played 30 minutes or more, he’s averaged 61 FD points and I think he’ll need to be in full “freak mode” tonight for 35-40 minutes to get the Bucks past the Celtics. With Giannis healthy, I’m not that interested in any of the other Bucks other than maybe a punt like John Henson (3900).

I have a lot of interest in two Celtics in this game. First of all, Kyrie Irving (7600) is too cheap, considering he finally broke out for 30 real-life points against Detroit on Tuesday.  In the six postseason games against Milwaukee last year, Kyrie 26-4-6 and is a great option to run it back with for your Giannis lineups.

The other Celtic is forward Marcus Morris (4700) who’s basically been Boston’s sixth man, playing between 24-30 minutes in all but two of their games this season. He’s averaging 18-9 over his last three games and taking advantage of the fact that Gordon Hayward is still being limited to 24-25 minutes a game. Attacking Milwaukee with point guards or interior players is usually my preferred approach.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Oklahoma City @ Charlotte (228 total)

Kemba Walker (9200) and the Hornets are 1.5 point favorites at home tonight against Russell Westbrook (12000) and the Thunder.  While my first instinct would be just to stack both of these usage monster point guards and move on, this may actually be another really good spot to pivot off Westy to his teammate Paul George (9300) and save 2700 in salary cap.

Westy has yet to hit 6x on his salary this season and while Kemba is a matchup he can exploit, Charlotte has been very weak against the small forward position for a few years now. PG13 was able to outperform Westy on Tuesday and I think he could do it again tonight at lower ownership. The Walker-George stack costs 18500 and won’t hamstring your budget the same way that mashing Westbrook in will.

The other player from this game that I really like is Steven Adams (7500), who continues to produce for the Thunder in the paint. He posted 18-10-2 with a steal and 3 blocks in his return from a one-game hiatus and now has three 40+ FD point performances this year. Charlotte is weak on the interior and Adams could have way with the likes of Cody Zeller and Willy Hernangomez rather easily.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Sacramento @ Atlanta (231 total)

This game is so tempting to stack, but I think I may have learned my lesson with the Hawks recently. Even though Trae Young, Taurean Prince, and Kent Bazemore have upside against a weak defensive Kings team, we have no idea what to expect their minutes to be as Atlanta continues to experiment with their rotation. In Tuesday’s game against the Cavs, the Hawks played 11 different players 15 minutes or more. Alex Len stands out as a potential value at 5300 but he had only played 13 and 16 minutes in the two games prior to his big game against the Cavs. I’m just not going to bite on any Hawks today, even in what is projected to be a close game with only a 1.5 point spread.

For Sacramento, I have some level of interest in DeAaron Fox (8200), Buddy Hield (8000), Nemanja Bjelica (7200) and Willie Cauley-Stein (7300).  Fox and Hield seem to have the safest minute allotment and either one could get hot tonight against Hawks backcourt that can’t guard anyone, but they are priced up at 8k or more. I’d rather invest in some shares of Bjelica or Cauley-Stein against the Hawks interior and save a few hundred in salary cap. The Kings are in a really good spot here, but I’m not really looking to stack them up and invest that much salary in them, but I do think each of these guys are viable one-off plays in the hopes that they have a massive night against Atlanta.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: L.A. Clippers @ Philadelphia (228 total)

I am really excited to watch this game as I am a believer in the Clippers early season success is sustainable. They travel to Philly to face Joel Embiid (10900) and the Sixers. The Clippers are 5 point road dawgs tonight, but this game has a nice total and should have a fast pace as Philly plays faster than most teams in the league.

I lean towards using Embiid instead of his teammate Ben Simmons (9800) even though the latter is about a thousand clams cheaper.  Embiid should eat against the Clippers inside as they really have no answer for him (and no all you Boban-truthers, Boban can not guard Joel Embiid!). The other ancillary piece from Philly that I like is J.J. Redick (5200) who’s just too cheap for a guy who has a 24% usage rate in 30 minutes per game off the bench.

The Clippers were rolling before they lost Tuesday against Oklahoma City. They are getting contributions offensively from more than just Tobias Harris (7500) and Danilo Gallinari (6400) these days as Lou Williams (5000) has finally seemed to have found his stroke with the second unit and Montrez Harrell (5600) been equally good off the bench.  This feels like a Tobias Harris-game as the Sixers have already shown they struggle with bigger wing players. And I’m not a revenge-narrative guy, but Lou-Will coming back to Philly has to be a fun storyline to follow as he spent much of the earlier part of his career playing for the Sixers.  In reality, he’s just too cheap at 5k for a guy with a 26% usage rate and an elite ability to score the ball when his team needs him down the stretch.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Denver @ Cleveland (226 total)

The Nuggets come into Cleveland tonight as only 5 point favorites against the Cavs. They barely pulled out a last-minute victory against the lowly Bulls last night and gave up 106 points.  If we are going to spend up for some Nuggets players, then we have to hope that they allow Cleveland to hang around for the majority of the game so they get enough time on the court to make value. I definitely think it could happen and I have interest in a game stack here just in case.

Nikola Jokic (10200) is the first consideration whenever you want to play the Nuggets.  He was one assist shy of a massive triple double again last night and ended up with 5 combined blocks/steals. Other than Giannis and Embiid, Jokic has the highest ceiling on the slate and he comes at a slight discount to those other two superstars.

Jamal Murray (7800) and Gary Harris (7700) are priced appropriately these days so I might use one of them, but not both. The Cavs are bad against point guards and shooting guards, so take your pick.  Trey Lyles (4400) didn’t get his price raised and I won’t hesitate to use him again as he’s been a super consistent fantasy asset in all but one game this year.  Malik Beasly played 30 minutes off the bench last night for the second game in a row and is only 3600 if you’re really in need of a punt. Torrey Craig is still starting, but Beasley is eating up his minutes.

The Cavs are without their best player, Kevin Love, and just fired their head coach. But, they were able to win their first game on Tuesday against fellow basement-dweller Atlanta and scored 140 points in the process. The seem like their ready for a full post-Lebron rebuild and are looking to give their young players meaningful minutes all year long. That puts rookie point guard Colin Sexton (5000), shooting guard Rodney Hood (5700) and small forward Sam Dekker (4500) firmly in play tonight as all three played 27 or more minutes Tuesday. Hood is particularly interesting as he has now scored 32.5 and 39.7 FD points in his last two games. Cedi Osman (6300) is a little bit too pricey for me, but Dekker is still a nice value for 1800 less and is coming off a 37.8 FD point performance of his own.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night and Sample Lineup

Yesterday’s sample lineup would have finished with a score of 297.6 on FanDuel with Rondo being the lowest score that would have been dropped.  This was my “not sure if Anthony Davis is playing” build and in the name of full transparency I ended up with a lot of Davis once he was probable.  We definitely hit on some great plays with Gobert, Curry, Holiday all having big nights and Crowder, Kuzma, Matthews, Barnes, and Lyles all making value.

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Picking one game that is my favorite is tough as there’s a couple that I really like. I’m going to go out on a limb and go with Denver-Cleveland as the stack I want to build. I’m counting on two things here. Cleveland is going to play better with more of their younger players now getting bigger minutes. And Denver is going to be tired after having to play all four quarters against the Bulls and finally winning at the buzzer.

Denver-Cleveland Game-Stack Build (with Walker-George mini-stack)

PG: Kemba Walker (9200)

PG: Jamal Murray (7800)

SG: Rodney Hood (5700)

SG: Frank Mason (3800)

SF: Paul George (9300)

SF: Sam Dekker (4500)

PF: Trey Lyles (4400)

PF: Jerami Grant (4900)

C: Nikola Jokic (10200)

Regular Build (without as much stacking)

PG: Kyrie Irving (7600)

PG: Damian Lillard (9600)

SG: Rodney Hood (5700)

SG: Lou Williams (5000)

SF: Troy Williams (3700)

SF: Giannis Antetokuonmpo (10500)

PF: Marcus Morris (4700)

PF: Zach Collins (4700)

C: Steven Adams (7500)

As always, thanks for reading. If you like reading this column every day, please share with friends and other NBA DFS players.  Good luck in your contests tonight and be sure to check out all the other great FREE content at FantasyCPR!